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portefeuille (99.66)

ANTH

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September 17, 2010 – Comments (16)

My earlier post on ANTH was more or less useless.

zzlangerhans has written this about ANTH recently.

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My next selection: Anthera Pharmaceuticals (ANTH). Please enter a limit pick of 3.4.

Anthera is the Oliver Twist of baby biotechs. Their share price seems to have been jinxed from inception, and every turn is met with misfortune. The company was forced to reduce the price of their IPO by half in March of this year, raising only 42M. The share price muddled along humbly at 7 for a couple of months and then began to stagger, touching 4 in July before a pseudo-recovery took the share price back to 6. The upward climb was short-lived and the share price is now showing downward momentum at 3.2.

Throughout these valuation travails, Anthera has displayed a surprising absence of negative catalysts. The company has three compounds in clinical trials and thus far seems to be executing their development plan. The phase III VISTA-16 trial of varespladib in acute coronary syndrome was initiated in June and has an estimated completion date of February 2012 (although I suspect it will be later). The PEARL-SC phase IIb trial of A-623 B lymphocyte inhibitor for lupus has been initiated, but it is unclear if any patients have yet been enrolled. The estimated date of completion for this trial is May 2012.

My main question and concern about Anthera at this time is the disappearance of  the IMPACTS phase II trial of secretory phospholipase inhibitor A-001 in sickle cell anemia. Clinicaltrials.gov reports that this study was completed in December 2009, yet the company issued their last press release about it in March 2009 ( to report encouraging preliminary data and continuance of the trial). Subsequent quarterly PR's do not mention IMPACTS and barely refer to A-001. If IMPACTS has failed and the company swept it under the rug I consider this to be a serious indictment of management's integrity and the company's long-term prospects.

Despite this concern, I believe the drop in share price is more reflective of stochastic movement in a thinly traded small cap biotech than true market pessimism. A market cap of 75M is low for a company with ongoing phase III and phase II trials of two compounds for diverse indications, even if A-001 and IMPACTS are completely discounted.

Hopefully Anthera is truly an Oliver Twist and not an Artful Dodger, and will eventually find their way to security and acceptance in a most Dickensian manner.

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(from comment #21 here)

 

I have added a few ANTH shares to my portfolio today, making ANTH shares now a 6% position (see comment #89 here).

Buying a few shares at around 3.15 USD per share might be a very good idea.

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 17, 2010 at 3:00 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

If you do want to buy some use limit orders with a reasonable limits! And don't blame me ...

 

(blame zzlangerhans, hehe ...)

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#2) On September 17, 2010 at 3:00 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a reasonable

reasonable

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#3) On September 17, 2010 at 3:06 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:



enlarge

 



enlarge

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#4) On September 17, 2010 at 3:10 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

This might help in finding a "reasonable limit".

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/nlstrades.aspx?symbol=ANTH&selected=ANTH

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#5) On September 17, 2010 at 3:21 PM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

OK...a partial at 3.12... : )

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#6) On September 17, 2010 at 3:27 PM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

Let's call it 3.125...that was a painful execution. You me and like 5 others trading this one today!  

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#7) On September 17, 2010 at 4:02 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I bought some more as well. Now a 10% position.

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#8) On September 17, 2010 at 6:18 PM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

Sorry for ruining this for you...my timing here was pretty darn poor although the sell off into the close allowed me to double down at 2.90...

So let's now call it 3.01...about 2% of my "fund." : )

You and zzlangerhans are responsible for this illness I have developed. I also picked up ARNA today at $1.99! I cut back on some of my China holdings (CSR, CDII and DYP) to fund the madness. 

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#9) On September 17, 2010 at 7:43 PM, zzlangerhans (99.84) wrote:

@ #8: You have a reasonable chance of doing well with both those trades. I had a limit order on ARNA at 1.85 today and just missed it. I'll re-address Monday. I actually think ARNA stock is virtually worthless given that the market cap is all enterprise value, but I think the chance of a rebound to at least 2.5 prior to the PDUFA is about 75%. These obesity drug stock traders seem to be an extremely stupid bunch. ANTH is a puzzle but I will likely buy under 3 on Monday. Again, could go to 0 like ARYX or ANSV but I estimate the probability of rebound upwards of 70%.

As the market inflates irrationally you may want to think more about shorts or puts to position yourself for the next blow-up. I'll try and write a comprehensive put post this weekend.

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#10) On September 17, 2010 at 10:59 PM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

zzlangerhans (99.63) - thanks man...I look forward to checking it out. 

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#11) On September 21, 2010 at 9:39 AM, MyunderratedLife (90.43) wrote:

Is this material to you guys?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Anthera-Pharmaceuticals-prnews-878028983.html?x=0&.v=1

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#12) On September 22, 2010 at 1:39 PM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

sold off 25% at $3.30 to adjust that double down move... : )

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#13) On September 23, 2010 at 1:56 AM, zzlangerhans (99.84) wrote:

Got my Arena at 1.6 today, 5000 shares worth. I'm feeling good about this one but will sell at least a week before Oct 22 no matter what. Can't risk an early rejection.

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#14) On September 23, 2010 at 9:58 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

okay, time to sell a few ANTH shares (using reasonable limit orders) ...

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#15) On September 23, 2010 at 10:18 AM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

OK, skimmed some off at 3.85 (I had to wait until you were done selling!).

Might use it towards doubling into ARNA now...although I am getting concerned about that one... : )

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#16) On October 11, 2010 at 11:24 AM, Momentum21 (39.12) wrote:

I am completely out of ANTH at 6.02. That was a double up... : ) I still have some ARNA

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