November 05, 2007
– Comments (7)
Glad to have moved into cash last month during happy hour? I sure am. Granted, it's bathroom tissue -- I mean, U.S. dollars -- but still, better than those overpriced stocks that have come crashing back.
I'm still considering it. I was fortunate that the vast majority of my purchases were made after the death march pushed on the market by the collapsing housing sector. It wasn't too hard to turn what I'd consider to be a good yearly gain in the following month or so. There are still a few stocks of which I'm a huge fan and which I think will support themselves despite the obvious bit of bad news coming from the banking industry, but they're quickly decreasing in number.
Instead of cash I have been in deepwater drillers RIG / GSF and generic drug manufacturers (TEVA, BRL, CPD & MYL), all of which look to all be value priced and protected on the downside. The former due to peak oil and 5 year contracts, and the latter, b/c health-care cost cutting is certainly not going away anytime soon.
I have been pretty conservative in my investments this year which cost me all the upside of China, but which has allowed me to sleep at night. I agree with you, the worst is yet to come.
My plan: keep saving big piles of money so I always have dry powder. If there is a crash, I just hope I have enough cash on hand to regain whatever losses I suffer on the way down. And of course I keep a nice little pile of gold near my bedstand to help me sleep at night.
That said, I'm sure things will go down the tubes sooner or later. Escaping from the housing debacle without recession and without doing permanent damage to the economy (like another 50% devaluation of the dollar) seems highly unlikely.
Yeah, there are a few bargains out there. I've done some buying lately too. But I'm not holding onto fully or over-priced stuff in this climate. I got out of deepwater drilling way too early, dangit. Held the PTR long enough, at least.
PTR and SNP look like they're taking quite a beating today. I almost consider re-upping on them, but likely just a valid correction.
Then again, I'm one of those people who sells a little too quickly and is happy with a 40% or 50% yearly gain and misses out on the next few years worth of growth. Grr.
Yes, I cashed out 100% with my real money on October 8, and in CAPs I mostly cashed out from October 8-11. My long-term forecast is still bullish, but in the short term I think investor sentiment is still too optimistic and bullish, so my contrarian antennae are telling me to wait before buying back in.
I disagree, if there is far more trouble ahead, i would rather buy foreign stock or commodities to protect myself from a dollar devaluation. From the argentinian crisis, i learned that a financial crisis often end up in a monetray crisis...I will avoid holding dollar at the moment.