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Momentum21 (43.39)

AOI: Where do we go from here?

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January 06, 2010 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: AOI

A value play with big investment from Baupost...sizeable debt load...significant short interest. Lots of volume so far in 2010 and the stock has caught fire this week. More than 10% yesterday, 18% in the past month and another 6% after hours today...

Looking at the long-term chart we are approaching what appears to be a significant milestone...the mid 6's. 

Does it double from here or breakdown in a heap this year? I am holding with a 35% gain and need to start pondering the upside potential vs downside risk from hear.

I lean towards locking and loading for the long haul here...Anticitrade model has a price target of around 9...others say 10 and beyond. What say you? 

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 06, 2010 at 7:31 PM, Momentum21 (43.39) wrote:

I have to give some props to  kaskoosek (99.73) here

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#2) On January 06, 2010 at 7:31 PM, kaskoosek (44.06) wrote:

This is only the beginning.

 

I am sitting on 45% gain. I will not unload anything. As a matter of fact, if price goes down I will buy much more. This is one of the most undervalued stocks. 

 

 http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=257078&t=01007276696298991768&source=itxsitmot0000001

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#3) On January 06, 2010 at 7:35 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

I'd listen to Anticitrade.

Good Luck!

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#4) On January 06, 2010 at 7:38 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Which doesn't mean 10 and beyond is not possible (but 9 looks very possible very soon)...

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#5) On January 06, 2010 at 7:52 PM, Momentum21 (43.39) wrote:

thanks guys, 

DLZ - I am attempting to follow you in the long journey to the top! check the graphs : ) 

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#6) On January 06, 2010 at 8:05 PM, dragonLZ (99.35) wrote:

Wow...that's all I can say M21... :)

Good Luck!

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#7) On January 06, 2010 at 9:46 PM, caidencollett07 (29.09) wrote:

In RL, sticking with the AllStarPortfoilio on this one.

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#8) On January 06, 2010 at 9:46 PM, caidencollett07 (29.09) wrote:

In RL, sticking with the AllStarPortfoilio on this one.

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#9) On January 07, 2010 at 7:46 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

It might be worth upwards of $15, but I'd personally keep away from it.  My concern is that they are highly leveraged, which appears to make their earnings very volatile and unreliable. Check out the past three fiscal years:

FY '09 = $1.50 per share

FY '08 = $0.10 per share

FY '07 = $(0.25) per share

For the first half of FY '10, they've earned $0.14 per share and it looks like analyst projections are around $0.70 per share for the full year.  

I'd have to know a lot more aobut the company to value it.  If they have significant growth, it could be worth $20.  If their earnings continue to fluctuate back and forth, occasionally drifting into the red, it might not be worth more than the $6 it's selling at.  

I could actually see a good case for going long, though.  I just don't like the leverage and I don't like the thought of investing in tobacco one way or another.  But the long case requires consistant growth in markets outside the US. 

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#10) On January 07, 2010 at 9:33 AM, Momentum21 (43.39) wrote:

JakilaTheHun (99.95) - thanks for the thoughtful reply. Many of us have chosen to look past the potential pitfalls of leverage (ironically).

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#11) On June 11, 2010 at 12:56 PM, Momentum21 (43.39) wrote:

This baby has taken a pummeling over the past couple of months. 

I had booked some profits along the way but currently still hold about 1/3 of my initial position. I am starting to add back at $3.83. 

Current cost basis of 4.23 before adding shares. I like the odds of recovering from these levels as money starts chasing this ticker again.  

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