Do you believe that Apple's earnings this year will be flat vs. last year?
Do you believe that Apple will experience less-than-inflationary net income growth the next 4 years?
Do you believe that Apple is lying about its cash and actually has 0 book value?
Do you believe that Apple's market cap (value) will be exactly the same as it is today in 5 years?
Do you believe that Apple will need to spend $10B on capex and whatnot every year to make the above results happen?
Do you believe that the downside risk associated with the above happening is as risky as when you invest in the S&P?
Because all these assumptions together would roughly give you a value of today's market cap. Seems a bit ridiculous to me.
(5 year DCF using Y1 earnings of 41.7B, $10B capex, 2% growth, 8% discount rate, $413B residual, and 0 book value)