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Apple: Take what the defense gives you



July 22, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AAPL , GOOGL , AMZN

As a quarterback, you call the play in the huddle and then approach the line of scrimmage. While the play design might be a 5-step drop, play-action pass down the middle of the field, things change. Maybe the defense is blitzing your blind side and you have to call a hot route. Maybe you audible to a draw play to exploit the area the blitzing linebackers should be. Either way, you TAKE WHAT THE DEFENSE GIVES YOU.

I think that stocks are very much the same way. No matter what your investing style is, you have to adapt to what Mr. Market gives you. Being able to adapt is a huge advantage for the generalist investor. That's why I don't particularly like strategies that are too dependent on specific criteria like "low p/e, fast growth, etc." Heck, while I have particular investment characteristics that I like/dislike, I don't let them blind me from what is being offered in the market.

I often look for hidden small-caps, special-situations, etc. However, I am hard-pressed to find more of a no-brainer investment right now than Apple. I have owned shares for a long time now and am well over 100% on the investment, but just doubled my stake today. 

It is simply an unbelievable company at a great price. Even with shares bid up, if you back out their cash (which could very well be used in acquisition activities soon.. hello HULU!), they are trading for about 14.3X ttm earnings. Paying less than 15X earnings for a company that grew EPS by 120% in the last quarter, is firing on all cylinders, has huge expansion opportunities in China... I mean thank you Mr. Market! For the patient investor, I think that this is a truly great offer from Mr. Market to get into an incredible fast-growing business at a great price.

The play-call might have been an obscure micro-cap trading for less than tangible book with hidden assets, but for now, I am going to audible to the simple draw play right up the middle: Apple (AAPL).


1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 22, 2011 at 6:12 PM, Borbality (39.59) wrote:

It's truly amazing. I keep thinking I missed out so I buy companies and ETFs that gain from AAPL's success, but I swear the company does better and it continues to get cheaper. I'm going to open a position very soon next time there's ANY significant drop in price.


It almost seems like people have run out of money to put into it.  My only concern is whether there'd be a severe overreaction if the company finally doesn't beat expectations, even though the company is priced like it's not going anywhere. 

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