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alstry (36.17)

Are Economists RETARDED???

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June 09, 2009 – Comments (9)

It would be the only medical explanation I can come up with to try to understand why collectively so many see a second half recovery which seems so obviously ridiculous.....actually, I may be insulting the mentally challenged population by grouping Economists with them.

We know currently there are tens of millions of unemployed and underemployed Americans. 

We know that companies have record low interest in adding jobs at the present. 

We know that cities and states are faced with MASSIVE budget shortfalls likely resulting in bankruptcies, MASSIVE spending cuts including wage cuts, benefit cuts, and job cuts. 

We know that America faces and incredibly large number of residential and commercial mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

We know that commercial vacancies are skyrocketing and the values of commercial properties are crashing.

We know that the Federal Deficit is soooo large that it is likely to crowd out private borrowing and cause interest rates to rise substantially.....we have already seen rates rise a record percentage in the past few months.

We know that bankruptcies are currently being filed at record or near record levels.

We know that tens of millions more Americans are likely to face job losses, wage cuts, and benefit  cuts.

Health Care providers are facing HUGE stresses.  Government is runnning out of money....and the Consumer is tapped out with little access to credit and a terrible income outlook with a HUGE debt overhang.

We know that many countries around the world are facing similar issues as America.

So please explain how when conditions in every catagory are GETTING WORSE....not better.....that anyone can even fantasize about a second half recovery until we purge an unsustainable level of debt and move down the road or job recovery.

DEPRESSION GUARANTEED BY ALSTRYNOMICS!!!!!

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 09, 2009 at 7:23 PM, alstry (36.17) wrote:

LUXEMBOURG -- The European Central Bank expects further financial-sector weakness could help keep the euro-zone economy from expanding before the middle of next year, a top policy maker said in an interview.

At least the Europeans seem to see things a bit clearer then over here....if we can begin a recovery by the middle of next year....that would be unbelievably positve.....but I wouldn't hold my breath.

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#2) On June 09, 2009 at 7:57 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Just keep shorting.  Insanity doesn't last long in financial markets.  As Soros is fond of pointing out, markets act 'reflexively' and abruptly when confronting the truth.  This time will be no different.  Today's action and the action of the last several days can only be described as Bizarre.  As a general rule, I don't buy Bizarre Markets, I short them. 

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#3) On June 09, 2009 at 8:35 PM, dickseacup (67.26) wrote:

As a member of one of the oft-quoted professional economist organizations (sorry, I'm just a layman!), I do my part to answer the surveys in such a way as to introduce a little common sense. I strongly suspect, however, that my responses are eliminated as statistical outliers.

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#4) On June 09, 2009 at 9:18 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Alstry, you often make very valid comments on the negative fundamentals still present in the economy.  You always say to "prepare, don't fear."  I do not read every blog of yours so I may have missed it.  How might one prepare for what is coming? I would like your advice on specifically how to prepare, as far as investments and living the daily life go.  

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#5) On June 09, 2009 at 9:27 PM, alstry (36.17) wrote:

cash, metals and a bit of speculation

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#6) On June 09, 2009 at 9:47 PM, tfirst (27.67) wrote:

With the inflation you predict, cash won't help you. Try this. A still, a garden, guns and ammo, and a piece of ground not to big for you to protect....Hell....let's just move back to the farm...

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#7) On June 09, 2009 at 10:27 PM, Harold71 (22.22) wrote:

>Are Economists RETARDED???

Alstry you are reading my mind...I've been contemplating a blog (or a book, it probably could be that long if I tried) entitled John Maynard Keynes is a Big Fat Idiot.  (Too bad he wasn't that fat...but the idiot part certainly applies.)

 

It's like 1984 propaganda with the MSM and Keynes and this "free lunch" from the government.  The first thing you learn in economics is there is NO free lunch.  The price must eventually be paid.  A lot of economics that they teach today is crap, but this seems quite rational.

TIME 100: John Maynard Keynes (from 1999, and unfortunately the beliefs still seem to be alive and well)

"His radical idea that governments should spend money they don't have may have saved capitalism."

That has to be one of the most idiotic statements I've ever read.

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#8) On June 10, 2009 at 1:00 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

As I was driving home one of the financial pundits commented that he had watched a recent Obama speech and concluded that Obama looked defeated. He based that on his body language etc.

I wondered out loud what this radio sage had been smoking. But when I got home I looked up the latest Rasmussen reports polls and was shocked. 

My first reaction was to go out and form a 527 but instead I went to the store for ice cream. 

1. First the generic Congressional Ballot had Reps and Dems in a dead heat. Normally Dems would have at least a 6 % lead and usually it is a lot more. Voters not affiliated with either party now favor Republicans by 38% to 21%

2. Second voters trusted the Reps more on 6 of 10 major issues. 

Reps then Dems

Economy  45  39

Taxes       44  39

Nat Security 51  36

Iraq   45   37

Ethics 35  29

Immigration 43 29

Abortion 41  41

SS      37  43

Education 37  44

Health Care 37  47 

This is the first time in years the country has preferred Reps on economic issues. 

Only 26 % approved of the GM bailout and 67 % were apposed. 17% will boycott buying GM. 52% of respondents feared that the Gov would do too much concerning the recession. Elements of the Senate health care bill have great opposition.

The Rep candidates in the Gov races in NJ and VA have big leads.

The hapless, leaderless, divided, bickering Rep party has managed to become relevent by doing nothing. Who would have though that thier numbers would be this good, this soon. 

If they can find some real leadership (Gingrich and Rush are not the right face for the Rep Party) they may save the country from some of the idiocy of the Dem economics.

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#9) On June 10, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Bkeepr100 (< 20) wrote:

Keynes school type thinking is idiototic and dead wrong!  You cannot spend your way out of a debit situation! It only makes things worse.

I prefer to use the Austrian school of economics. It is far simpler and is not full of wishful thinking about debt.

All fiat currency(s) WILL fail. This is historicaly proven, think of the continental currency(circa 1770's) The reason is that the government can produce $$ at the flick of a switch.  There are no restrants on the creation of currency out of thin air.  Thus they debase the currency by diluting the purchasing power of the paper currency already in circulation.

B-man Rick

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