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Are they still going up together (SPY & GLD)...?

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September 22, 2010 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SPY , HL

Yup.

A month after I posted this, they still are going up hand-in-hand.

I know one month is way too short of a time to measure anything, but I thought it's kinda interesting how they had the same return since Aug. 18, 2010. Just great.

And silver stocks are still kicking both gold's and S&P's butt (especially HL, my favorite silver play).

I don't get it why majority of the people here on CAPS are still bullish on one but bearish on the other (commodities vs. stocks). Go figure.

Good Luck Everybody! 

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 22, 2010 at 11:08 AM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"I don't get it why majority of the people here on CAPS are still bullish on one but bearish on the other (commodities vs. stocks)."

So, are you looking at stocks as a simple hedge against inflation?...fundamentals are bad, but stocks aren't rising on fundamentals?  I'd rather stay away from stocks if the rise is not reflecting a true rise in value. 

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#2) On September 22, 2010 at 12:14 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

dave23, you've been saying the same thing (over and over) for more than a year now. Were you right so far?

Fundamentals were bad in March of 2009 as well, and since then, the market is up how much?

And no, I'm not looking at stocks as a simple hedge against inflation.

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#3) On September 23, 2010 at 3:59 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I can put my hand on gold and silver...can you put your hand on a stock valuation?  While it's not necessarily a fine alignment, in some historical periods when the market has crashed Gold/Silver have held their value and/or increased.  The Market is up since March of 09 because it dropped below anything realistic in a panic sell. What has it done since January of 2010?   Take a snapshot of history if you want, but GLD is beating the SPY by 21% in the last six months.

Why are you using a 30 day history to imply that they are tracking together?  Gold is up 150% over the SYP in the last 5 years.  21% this year alone.

Personally I'm not fond of Gold/Silver as an investment because the rarity of the metals has always been grossly understated. Not as bad as Diamonds, but while it's in the ground what it will be worth when extracted is anyone's guess.  But in tough times it will have some value.

The correlation that the SPY and Gold/Silver have right now is true (over some time periods) but not others. Alignment of their investment direction will take different paths at some point in time.  Which will keep going up and which will go down is anyone's guess. If the market stabilized and confidence returned then the market would go up and people would put less focus on gold/silver.  Until then, while I'm generally bullish on the market, I won't fault anyone feeling that gold/silver is a good hedge for someone who has both, or someone who sticks to pure gold/silver and no equities. Investors are diversified and since no one can predict the future, whatever an investor feels is the right thing to do is what's right for them.  If they all agreed it would be scary.  

History will repeat at some point in some place. Looking at Japan right now over the last ten years and I think they would have been much happier holding Gold. (50% up over Japan the last two years).

 

Davejh23 is entitled to his views the same as anyone else, without the Monday Morning quarterback.

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#4) On September 23, 2010 at 4:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

TSIF, I don't think you read my original post - there is a link in the second sentence...

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#5) On September 24, 2010 at 9:47 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Yes, I did. Your overall premise that Gold/Silver and the S&P are acting harmonious is flawed. Looking at your core premise that premise that Bull Gold/Silver and Bull Market folks should get along is a great story, but you aren't walking your talk. Dave answered your question and gave his viewpoint.  No bitter in there. His viewpoint is based on his view of valuation. You commented on his track record. Not a very valid reply to stimulate dialogue and it doesn't jive with your original premise.

My premise is that everyone doesn't need to agree, nor do they need to be bitter either, (point to you).  I'd rather that everyone not agree, it's not healthy.

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#6) On September 24, 2010 at 3:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

Yes, I did.

No you did not. If you did, you didn't accuse me of using 30-day history to "imply" that GLD and SPY are moving together (March of 2009 was 18 months ago).

You also wouldn't accuse me that I said anything bad about Gold, and you wouldn't repeat the exact same thing I said (that GLD has been kicking S&P's butt for years).  

As for your comment about dave, I don't understand why he has the right to his opinion and I don't have to mine. Did I say something that's not true?

For months now, dave is posting comments on bullish posts telling bulls they are wrong. Well, I just pointed out to him who's actually been wrong.

Don't you think it would be silly if I was leaving comments on blogs about YRCW like: "You guys are wrong, YRCW is a great pick. Load up on YRCW, and load up fast."

That's exactly what dave has been doing.

And btw., didn't Sinchiruna "pull dragonLZ" in comment# 11 in this post here? I'm sure you didn't mind that, but you mind my comment. (Well, he is TMFSinichiruna, and I'm not).

I think your comment just proves what I said long time ago: People on this site are much more underestanding towards bears (and they feelings) than bulls.

Good Luck. 

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#7) On September 24, 2010 at 4:51 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Your charts above show 30 days, they don't show a continuation of your other blog.  I DID read your other blog, but if you are posting fresh charts and comments, you should expect them to stand alone.

I don't read all of Sinchiruan's blogs, or very many blogs at all, but I do read most of yours.  You talk about how everyone should get along, but you slam David for answering your question.  Is this how we get dialogue??  Yes, by all means express your opinions, but in dialogue.

We both replied to THIS BLOG:

"I don't get it why majority of the people here on CAPS are still bullish on one but bearish on the other (commodities vs. stocks). Go figure."

I think we both had valid answers. You need to assume that most people are reading the blog they are replying to and that they have no other context from other blogs. Wether this blog was/is standalone or not, we offered up some dialogue.

It seems between your two blogs that you are making two pioints. Bulls and Gold/SPY are both right and that they shouldn't argue.  I don't think your timeline from March 2009 proves this, as you clearly stated in your discussion. There is no reason for SPY Bulls and Gold Bulls to agree.  I do agree that if we disagree that we should do it constructively. Regardless if you are going to blog your opinions then you should be ready for all replies.  I know you're getting some feedback from a lot of upper fools lately, you asked for it.  No one is ever going to prove we are right via a blog, especially on investments.  It's the dialogue/discussion, being open, etc, where we all win.

 

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#8) On September 24, 2010 at 7:24 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

"And btw., didn't Sinchiruna "pull dragonLZ" in comment# 11 in this post here? I'm sure you didn't mind that, but you mind my comment. (Well, he is TMFSinichiruna, and I'm not)."

Did you mean "pull a DragonLZ"?  As I see no reference to you or any of your point in this blog.  

As far as pulling a dragonLZ, no, I don't see it. He compliments Dave and he pastes quotes from Zloj verbatium from four blogs and replies aptly without anywhere saying we should get along and then doing the opposite.  It is a very good piece of support and Zloj replied with a very thought provoking return and dialogue occured.

Oil is not gold.  Gold is not the SPY. You can't compare the two. In your charts on your other blog you use an 18 month time period, on this one a 30 day, but you verbalize that Gold has kicked the SPY and that the two don't correlate. I have no idea what you are trying to say.  They don't correlate, but they do?  Someone bullish SPY should be bullish GOLD? Both have been equal the last 18 months? They should stop disagreeing?    I hope not!  They are two different investment vehicles. Someone hard core gold and someone hard core SPY are just going to continue being adament unless convinced otherwise as it appears Dave was in the blog you linked. Very few people are going to be open minded.

Clearly you've read a lot more blogs and a lot more replies than I have.  It's hard to keep context.  Maybe you're seeing something I'm not, but I have no issue with disagreeing or even the posts that say buy XYZ before it goes way up. I like CAPS becasue there are a lot less of those than other boards, but I can ignore them where rationalizing them is clearly a waste of time.  I reply to those looking for dialogue, especially new investors with serious quesitons. You won't find many of those on other boards and if you do they get stepped on.  I dialogued with you once I realized your posts were more fun banter and competition than they were bolster as most people still see them.

As far as bears getting more love than bulls, of course they do, they're much cuter and they sh** in the forest away from the beaten path!   Actually, excpect BEARS to be more bitter. Many lost a great deal in the crash. Many didn't get back in and catch the rise.  Many will be bitter for awhile and may bite! AS long as they've had their rabies shot, then let 'em growl a little bit.  They may be right, especially if we go the way of Japan, it's all a matter of the duration of time we chose to look at.

I think one of us is taking the other out of context, most likely me since you are carrying a lot of other blogs/posts in your head.  I'm sorry if I don't understand your post in this series, but whether I'm taking your Gold/SPY out of context or not, I prefer to read blogs/replies that are in context. I'll try to make a better effor to understand your context, please humor me by trying to take each new reply to your blog as a fresh chance to dialogue!

I'd contend that when it comes to investing that NO ONE is WRONG, and some investors are right.  Ok, too deep for a Friday night!

 

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#9) On September 27, 2010 at 12:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

Did you mean "pull a DragonLZ"? 

Yes, that's what I meant - I apologize to Sinch.

As far as pulling a dragonLZ, no, I don't see it. He compliments Dave and he pastes quotes from Zloj verbatium from four blogs and replies aptly without anywhere saying we should get along and then doing the opposite.

I can do the same (find and post Dave's past comments), but I think it would be waste of my time. If you'd like to see those "quotes", I'll do it.

Btw., you misunderstood my post. Nowhere did I say "let's all get along with each other". I just tried to show Gold and Equities are both going up (and they don't seem to "argue" with each other) so why should these 2 group of bulls be arguing? However, I know they do, and I couldn't care less about it.

Oil is not gold.  Gold is not the SPY. You can't compare the two. In your charts on your other blog you use an 18 month time period, on this one a 30 day, but you verbalize that Gold has kicked the SPY and that the two don't correlate. I have no idea what you are trying to say.  They don't correlate, but they do?  Someone bullish SPY should be bullish GOLD? Both have been equal the last 18 months? They should stop disagreeing?    I hope not!  They are two different investment vehicles. Someone hard core gold and someone hard core SPY are just going to continue being adament unless convinced otherwise as it appears Dave was in the blog you linked. Very few people are going to be open minded.

I don't know if you noticed, but I don't care what TSIF or other people think. I strongly believe that I only need to listen to Mr. Market. If he tells me both GLD and SPY are going up, that's what I believe. If TSIF tells me they shouldn't be going up because of such and such theory that he has, sorry, but I'm not gonna listen.

And what is wrong by saying both Piccaso's paintings and old Amish furniture have been nice investment vehicles over the last 18 months (you could've doubled your money if you invested in either one). Just because somebody thinks they are different investment vehicles, and/or that they don't usually go up at the same time, doesn't mean much to me.

I'd contend that when it comes to investing that NO ONE is WRONG, and some investors are right.

I agree, this is way too deep even for a Monday morning...

Good Luck :)

 

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#10) On September 27, 2010 at 12:50 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

Oops, misspelled Picasso's name...Sorry Pablo...

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#11) On September 27, 2010 at 2:00 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

So why should these 2 group of bulls be arguing?

Bulls have too much testoterone.  They will always agrue among themselves, usually over who has the best cows to service.  It's a guy thing.

"I strongly believe that I only need to listen to Mr. Market. If he tells me both GLD and SPY are going up, that's what I believe."

 Ah, I understand that part,  but will he tell you in advance if he decides they will start to diverge?  :)

Good luck.

(P.S.  I think Pablo will forgive you).

 

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#12) On September 27, 2010 at 4:03 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

 Ah, I understand that part,  but will he tell you in advance if he decides they will start to diverge?  :)

I never said he's my friend...(but I do try to get clues when he talks)... :)

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#13) On September 27, 2010 at 4:07 PM, dragonLZ (99.40) wrote:

Since March 9, 2009, when S&P bottomed:

 

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