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alstry (35.70)

Are We Sheep?

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May 08, 2008 – Comments (10)

Sometimes when I read the headlines or watch CNBC I think how stupid must the editors think we are?

For example today, let's disect the the Wall Mart same store sales increase of 3.5%.

First, there was an extra selling day in April this year(no Easter) adding an extra 3.33 pecent selling days.

Then we know that gas prices are up over 25%.  Dairy prices up over 25%.  Grain prices up over 25%.  And food prices up over 10% in general from last year.  In addition, we also know that WalMart has taken advantage of selling flat screen TVs at tighter margins to boost revenues compared to last year.

Further, a much larger pecentage of WalMart's sales comes from selling groceries.

Now let's put the same store sales increase in context of increased selling days, higher food prices, higher gas prices, revenues from discounting flat screen TVs, and the results don't look spectacular at all.  As a matter of fact, they look down right depressing.

But don't expect anyone to ever tell you that.  You think they tell sheep in a brothel what is about to happen to them?

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 08, 2008 at 8:49 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Some interesting comments from today's WMT release:

Wal-Mart Stores U.S. president and chief executive officer. "The economy continues to get tougher and the 'paycheck cycle' is more pronounced for customers than in past months. As money gets tighter for them toward the end of the month, sales drop more than we have seen in the past."

HERE IS A DOOZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"We estimate U.S. comparable store sales, excluding fuel, for the May four-week period to be between flat and two percent," said Tom Schoewe, executive vice president and chief financial officer. "As Eduardo noted, it's currently difficult to quantify the impact from the stimulus checks."

FLAT TO TWO PERCENT??????  DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACT OF THE STIMULOUS CHECK??????

HOW STUPID DO YOU THINK WE ARE?????

Today's date is May 8th.  Gas is over $3.60 a gallon.  Dairy and grain prices are skyrocketing compared to last year.  Food prices are going nuts.  And WalMart is predicting a flat to 2% same store sales growth.

On a real inflation adjusted basis, we are probably looking at a 10% or more decline!!!!!!!

Just say Baaaahhhhhhh!!!!!

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#2) On May 08, 2008 at 9:04 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

DON'T BE FOOLED YOU FOOLS!!!!!!!!!

If prices and costs are up 20-25%, and sales are flat to up a little bit, that is NOT a good thing.

As a matter of fact, on a UNIT basis, it is very very negative!!!!!!

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#3) On May 08, 2008 at 10:42 AM, bellard (99.45) wrote:

AL;

Most educated investors are not fooled by the brainstems on CNBC. As I have posted many times - it all about cash flow. SSS and recent GDP numbers are easily manipulated. The US says we had a positive GDP for the past 6 months of .6%? The price deflator they used was 2.5% But as you pointed out gasoline, food, electricity,etc...are all up 10-50% so the real GDP growth was real negative 3-4% in a real world.

We are currenlty in a recession. 2 consecitive Q of negative real GDP. As for SSS, just ignore and look at earnings and cash flow for each company.

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#4) On May 08, 2008 at 11:18 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Bellard,

I can't believe you compare  yourself to FloridaBuilder.  That you think somehow your performance is equal to the man.

FloridaBuilder is in a class by himself.  Why do you think I bet him.  I knew I was outclassed.  When betting horses, class is a key metrix.  And if a lower class horse can beat a higher class horse, it is quite an accomplishment and the payoff is big.

The fact that I picked a FloridaBuilder green thumbed stock to go against his WCI is a 100 to 1 shot on who files bankruptcy first.  Even you think the bottom for SPF is $3 and WCI is below that right now.

From this perspective, FloridaBuilder is a stakes horse and you are simply a maiden claimer.  Whether I can beat this horse is yet to be seen, but if so the payoff will be big.  But if you think you are in his class, don't let me get in your way.

And as far as your comment on cash flow, when costs are up 20% and revenues are the same, guess what????  cash flow is generally impaired unless you can gut costs.  The slowdown is even more aggrevatged when you consider that WMT is benefitting from  a migration from higher priced stores.

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#5) On May 08, 2008 at 12:10 PM, bellard (99.45) wrote:

What does FB have to do with this discussion on real inflation? BTW I do not compare my self to anyone - I am happy being me. I just posted that you should do your own research and you should stop being a sheep and just following FB picks....FYI in the small economic(relative) world of home building, FB has better insight due to his job - My job in investing, and my experience is in valuing equities and capital assets....

If you want to be a sheep thats fine - can you say BAAAHHHH

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#6) On May 08, 2008 at 12:42 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

This is what you wrote(emphsis added):

There is a market outside of housing and SPF. I made very solid profits buying SPF and trading quickly. Before that I made profits buying puts on many of the HB's. Now is the time for smart investors to move on.....

I like reading Florida's posts, as he is informative and quite funny, but please do your own due diligence before risking any $$. My own DD changed my view on SPF, and I am now bearish on SPF - I think we could see 3 bucks a share soon. BTW my CAPS accuracy is similar to FB's

IMHO Stevie got fired from SPF because of his love of building too many spec's. His view was that in todays environment, new buyers close first, then buy - so they want a home to move into quickly. His theory is probable right, but his timing was terrible.

SPF will have to issue equity just like HOV did tonight - and with the stock price below 6 - will be received by the market very poorly.

I would continue to avoid this sector long or short. My analysis says these HB will go lower, but MR. market is saying watch out shorts! SPF at 3, 4 or 5 a share is just not worth buying puts or shorting - too much risk - the US government will be forced to start buying mortgages, assets before the end of the year IMHO.

Go to my CAPs page and read my blogs on Natural gas and steel stocks. These 2 sector will outperform the market for the next few years imho....

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=16994&tid=15982&mid=16003&tof=4&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

Res Ipsa Loquiter-it speaks for itself!!!!

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#7) On May 08, 2008 at 12:50 PM, bobbyj0708 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

 Don't throw in the towel on your bet with FB just yet. SPF and WCI in a huge race to the bottom today. Yee Haw!

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#8) On May 08, 2008 at 12:57 PM, bellard (99.45) wrote:

So now you are stalking me from yahoo. This is sad. I was hoping that CAPS is used for intelligent discussion on investing, but you appear driven to move CAPS into the childish world of Yahoo finance message boards, with the constant babbling and harassment.You started this blog with some real potential, the discussion of real inflation and the effect on revenue figures reported by US firms. Instead you try to harass/slander other CAPS bloggers. This is unfortunate.....

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#9) On May 08, 2008 at 1:37 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

bobby,

alstry never throws in the towel:)

bellard,....as far as stalking, you are posting on my comment board....now what does that say about you?  a floridabuilder wanna be where  right now I am in a race with the great floridabuilder, and its almost over....please don't contaminate this board with your self loving nonsense.

That said congratulations on your very high score and wonderful blog....I promise not to write any negative stuff on your blog as you have done on mine.

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#10) On May 08, 2008 at 2:21 PM, bellard (99.45) wrote:

Al;

You can comment on my blogs anytime - just stick with the topic at hand, and not bring in junk from left field - or the SPF yahoo board.

  I do post on yahoo boards on occasion about CAPS to bring in the few smart investors/bloggers left on Yahoo to the CAPS system. I am glad you blog here, as some of your posts provide good links to current events, and intelligent analysis, even if a bit overly bearish...

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