Are You are Turkey?????
December 07, 2008
– Comments (7)
For a while, I have been viewed as a big burly bear in real life and on this blog. In a number of conversations with others, people repeatedly ask me if Roubini is too doom and gloom....my response for the last year or so was that I thought he was too optimistic....although his thinking and mine are becoming closer as of late( I am not sure if he is becoming more negative or I am becoming more positive?) It is reassuring that there are people out there whom I respect that hold a similar perspective.
The following is a recent Charlie Rose interview with Nassim Taleb....author of The Black Swan. The premise and the interview is dead on and very important. It is a concept that every investor should understand and why I view his book one of the key reads any student of business and/or the markets can absorb. I recently recommeded the book to an acquaintance who is an executive at a public company.... in a social setting today, he told me he found it so insightful that he gave a copy to the entire board.
The following concise interview provides exceptional analysis without charge. I suggest you focus on the beginning of the interview when Mr. Taleb compares economists to turkeys and that which occurs at about 15:45 until the end with his prediction about how bad things might get.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713
For the most part, I tend to agree with most of his comments....including the portion about massive inflation.......but be careful, some people define inflation as the printing of currency, others define it as rising prices, but the two don't necessarily occur together.
Now the question is who is the turkey and who is the butcher?
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