February 16, 2011
– Comments (53)
I have lower expectations now than I did last summer, for obvious reasons. However, I have found that I am not a great oracle of the general market direction. So, I just focus on the prospects and valuations of individual issues.
I do wish that the stocks that I want to sell should go up and that the stocks that I want to buy should go down.
I'm more bearish than Yogi or BooBoo!
I think we end up in 2011 somewhere between S&P 1300 and 1400, with a high probability that we cross 1400 this year. European market indices like the FTSE 100, or the DAX have already returned to their 2007 highs or quite close. The US markets are running a little behind those in optimism (because our media here is much more pessimistic these years).
- So that makes me bullish (I'll turn strongly bearish and pull my money out when I see that return of luxury hotel REITs, strong crane sales, and other such signs).
But investing wise, I am arguing, like checklist34, is that it is not bad to be selling some shares in small portions as we go higher. We've done pretty good so far and had nice returns. It isn't bad to begin taking some cash out or share rebalancing as we go higher to protect what you've done so far.
I'm bullish on some specific companies.
Short term (next six months) I'm slightly bearish, expecting a 10% pullback from the markets current levels.
Long term - a lot depends on our politicians, which make me bearish as I never hold out hope for politicians to do the right thing.
All im sayin folks is pick your battles
Bearish on the market, and if that doesn't work our, then I'm very bearish on my rating staying over 50...
Typically I'm very bullish, but I've been bearish for a while now expecting a correction for months (which hasn't happened yet) which my score over the last 6 months has reflected.
I got faith in ya gold
Bullish in the very short term, bearish in the medium term, bullish in the very long term.
Bullish medium and long term. I am also bullish short term, but I don't day trade so that opinion doesn't really matter to me.
Bullish and have been since early 2009, but expecting a correction on the order of 5% or more within the next 3-6 months. After that, ??
I'm having a hard time deciding which way the overall market is going to go though I tend to be bullish most of the time. However based on my research I think there is going to be a catalyst that will happen in around June which will bring about a very strong bull or bear market. The ebb and flow of money is hard to read but once it's decided we'll be able to see a clear trend on which parts of the global economy is going where and in which direction.
Bull until May 31st - Then Bear to Sept 1st - then back to Bull for remainder of 2011
During the summer sizzle is time to buy on the down turn.
Generally still Bullish, but being very selective at what price I am willing to buy anything.
If the market continues to go up the way it has been, I will likely turn more Bearish. Some stock prices seem to have surpassed the bounds of "reality".
It's almost as if we have entered into an "inflationary stock market", with too much money, chasing too few stocks.
I am with dumberthanafool on this one.
Everybody says the markets have gone up too far too fast but I disagree. Outside of the momentum names, most other stocks seem about fairly priced...the SPY is not too expensive. Especially with interest rates this low.
Although I am not sure how kdakota says he is mostly bullish when he posts schiff blog's every day...
For the next 20 years = Bullish
For the next week/month/year = Don't care.
I posted a reply in my blog, but mostly I'm with dumberthanafool if you omit the "bullish in the very short term" part, and "bearish in the medium term" if by "medium term" you mean the next 5-10 years.
Do we just need to give you our best market prognostication or do we also need to come up with an acceptable Haiku?
I am with #13 Tagit, plus or minus a month or 2.
Bearish short term, bullish long term
We've had a significant correction the last 2 years during the summer, can we make it 3 in a row? I for one would be a buyer!
Can I say neutral to your question?
I haven't been buying anything the last several months (besides DSCO today!) because the market does seem a bit overextended imo. But that doesn't mean I expect it to crash/correct today. So as I sell out of positions I've just been accumulating cash and waiting for a more oportune moment. Who knows whenever that is going to arise, but I'm comfortable waiting.
I'm assuming more of the same as last year will keep the market going up or flat through the end of the year. Expecting lower volatility than last year and probably less of a return. (This is obviously just a guess)
I've added some large caps and ETFs and hope to ride those for a while, keeping a big chunk of cash on the sidelines until something big gets my attention or we have a major correction and I can pick up some index funds or big stocks that get beaten down out of whack.
I was just getting into the market after the big 2008 crash so I was pretty much just building up my 401k during the major rebound. If only I was investing earlier (didn't have the money either)!
Cautiously bullish, but some individual stocks are getting overheated in my opinion. Time to take a few profits here and there.
I think we are in a bubble, but given how retail investors just now started coming back I think we have about 3 months still to go.
Stage 3 out of 4.
bearish for the next 5 years. i think we will have another crash during this time. i doubt this is the start of a secular bull market because we did not get cheap enough. at no point was there revulsion, we only got so far as the panic stage. short term, i would not be surprised if the market kept going straight up until everyone stops looking for a correction.
I'm wondering what we are doing at these levels and also wondering how to ease out in real life and sit on the sidelines until a correction takes place of at least 25% on the S+P. Hard to go to cash these days, aren't stocks the only game around? Going to cash is almost like going short on the market since a dollar loses value every day. A quandry for sure. Short term bearish, long term bullish.
Lets face it, while CAPS is amazing and keeps us sharp, in the end there is no payout, no ultimate payoff for our due dilligence,What I propose is for players ranked 90 and above to have our own daily chat on specific stocks and overall market trends for all players to see. Because in the end I know I use the the baseline data I recieve not only from my picks but other respected players to make educated and informed decisions on investing real money in the the market. In the end this isnt player vs player, lets be honest, who the hell cares whos number one. But if we can use each other as a sounding board, and educate those newer cap members into making smarter decisions, then we have acomplished what I believe this site was created for. Starting Feb 17 on my blog (and daily there after) I will have a post which I hope all 90+ caps member will contribute to. Either way I will provide analysis on a few stocks and my overall take on the market. Lets embrace this opportunity we have to reach out to other intelligent investors and and actually turns this opportunity into a tangible reward.Again, tomorrow, Thursday the 17, the first " Collaboration of the Caps" will begin sometime late est (time to be determined). I hope to see you 90+'s there, and those who are close working hard to get into that range so you can contribute.GreenCollegeGrad
Walt, are you serious? Do you not remember how bad it was by march 8th 2009?
Sometimes I'm just -ish. In my region I'm seeing more low and mid level jobs availability and home sales, but groceries and gas cost more. It would hurt more except that costs are so much lower here to begin with than the rest of the country.
hello how is everyone doing ? i am very new and unexperience in this i just open an account in tradeking and i am looking to invest $1000 in the market but i really dont know which stock i should invest in i dont plan on doing anything with the money for 5yrs. please help any input is welcome thank you.
S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell Index charts are all trending up...I'm bullish now and have long positions (w/sell-stops) now.
I just play the day to day, for tommorrow bearish, I am bearish for the long term, but I keep my portfolio bull side until Dow Jones reach 11,500, I think we will see Dow in 12,500 some week from today. (1 month or less) But for tommow I am Bearish, we are in new high for today in the Dow 11,318
Long term Bearish (6 to 8 month from today)
Valyoo, I would say that was panic, not revulsion. People were only afraid of stocks. They did not hate them or give up on them. They were still looking for a rebound. And we were only at those prices for a few weeks. Less than two years after we bottomed in 2009, the market is already in 1999 mode. When the market finally bottomed during the 1930s, people gave up on stocks for the next 20 years.
This is all just theory though. In practice, stocks were cheap enough to load up on regardless if I thought it was the beginning of a secular bull market or not.
But the important thing is now, not March 2009. The market is not cheap, some sectors are extremely overvalued, and it's starting to get frothy.
I do not think we can sustain a decade-long bull market from here because the market is simply not cheap enough, and the math does not work out. Unless you have unprecedented economic growth or absurdly high ending valuations, a secular bull market cannot materialize from here.
We can definitely see another year or two of strong returns due to the economic recovery and strong price momentum. We could even see another bubble, who knows? But either way, we are going to have extended valuations and a market vulnerable to an unusually large list of external shocks that will start the next bear market.
I think now is the part of the cycle that value investors have to watch other people make money while waiting for better prices. It's very dangerous to reach, either reducing the bar for quality or cheapness.
To GreenCollegeGrad, for what it's worth I'd like to see that. Picks don't tell me much. I'm more interested in the pitches and conversations of top players.
I remain profoundly bearish on Rosetta Stone, however. Man their latest quarter reaked! Like always!
I remain -
ish (ɪʃ) — sentence substitute slang used to express reservation or qualified assent: Things are looking up. Ish
Truthfully I think it is a mistake to have a bias (easier said than done). It ends up keeping you in "wrong positions" and unable to make "right decisions". In other words, you want to be freed of bias and able to follow price and trend without being judgmental. Let your system make the decisions for you and free up your mind for other activity.
if we don't get a correction now then we will get a mother of all correction later which will effectively wipe out small investors. Market need to get some correction and sideways action, until june. So, yeah I am bear
hey TMF, can u tally how many bull/bear?
I am bearish. For reasons, please see by blog:
market will find any reason to go down....bullish after 5 - 8 % correction
Very Bullish until QE2 ends and will turn bearish if there is no QE3.
End of the year I think S&P will be boosted to 1400 at least. (Expecting QE3.)
If QE3 doesn't happen then I'll turn bearish during summer everything else staying the same. But, there are way too many changing variables to come up with sentiment for medium term.
@TMFBabo : You didn't give what you think !
In the long run, I'm bearish on the dollar enough to be bullish on the market despite being bearish on the economy... In the short run I have no strong feelings.
It feels like we're in the eye of a hurricane
Does your portfolio include precious metals? Just wondering what your take is on protecting your assets with physical gold or silver..do you have real money in the market? I'm excited about the potential for silver myself and since you seem to understand the market, I bet you already know what could happen with the price...any thoughts on this?
@philmat11777: I think you're thinking of TMFSinchiruna. He's generally respected as an authority on PMs around here. I do not own any gold or silver stocks (or physical bullion) at the moment, although I've considered the stocks a few times just to have exposure. This was not due to strong convictions of any sort.
Personally, I prefer the oil and gas route to playing the devaluation of the dollar. A lot of stocks with oil exposure have run up quite a bit recently, so I'm not sure I'd be initiating anything more than a tiny position today given the state of the market.
@everyone else: I'll be posting a blog sometime in the next week with my feelings on the market and anything else on my mind. Thanks for the responses!
After the recent gap-down in the COMP, the other indexes look to be following it down. I believe that correction may be coming soon. So, I'm bearish in the near term, bullish for the next year and a half or so, and any longer than that I'm definitely more bearish.
Holy cow. Dow futures -260. Nikkei off 15 or so %. Bears win, but not for any reason that could have been foreseen.
I tried to tell ya'... lol!
Bearish until last week of March, Bull through April and Bear thereafter until September