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Ask A Blunt Man - The Charity Edition

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November 29, 2010 – Comments (277)

Foolanthropy is back in full swing and the Fool is dishing out 10 cents per comment so I figured what better way to rack up money for a charitable cause than through another Ask A Blunt Man series.

I have to admit there will be some minor tweaks this time mainly because of constraints on my time and my now working with the Motley Fool. For starters, I will only entertain ONE STOCK per comment. If you have a question regarding five companies... great. Post them one at a time over the course of the next few weeks, hopefully not back to back to back etc... and I will get to them. Keep in mind that I will still be dishing out some heavy doses of sarcasm in this thread, but nothing I say should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell without first doing your own research. The last thing I want is someone sending me emails in a few weeks telling me they shorted something just because I said so in this thread and they're now in a margin call. You make your own buy and sell decisions, I don't! Although it's a small possibility, there could arise a situation where I may not be able to discuss the stock you want my opinion on. It has nothing to do with you -- it's merely me abiding by the ethical rules I am bound by and the Fool disclosure policy.

There, now that we have the gobbly-gook out of the way, let Ask A Blunt Man - The Charity Edition commence!

TMFUltraLong

 

277 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 29, 2010 at 11:50 PM, 100ozRound (29.42) wrote:

First

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#2) On November 29, 2010 at 11:50 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

100ozRound,

Is that your final answer?

TMFUltraLong

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#3) On November 29, 2010 at 11:53 PM, rd80 (97.08) wrote:

Since Option1307 mentioned it on my blog - Banco Santander (STD)

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#4) On November 29, 2010 at 11:56 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

UL, last time this thread grew so large my computer had to pause quite a bit to load it all. Time for a new one, my brother gave me this one 6 years ago, he is a banker. Bought 100 shares of TEF today. Have been looking at it for awhile but still, don't know what came over me? comments?

Thanks..............

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#5) On November 29, 2010 at 11:57 PM, GeneralDemon (< 20) wrote:

Question #1 How do you specifically determine a stock's undervalued/fairvalued/overvalued status in regards to future price.

#2 What is the most undervalued stock in regards to future price of the specialty chemical sector.

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#6) On November 29, 2010 at 11:59 PM, 100ozRound (29.42) wrote:

Hecla Mining (HL)

that's my final answer

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#7) On November 30, 2010 at 12:08 AM, Valyooo (99.47) wrote:

IMAX.  I own the stock simply because the sector is hot and because I believe it will continue to grow in the future.  However, 1) do you think its a good stock 2) honestly i dont even know what metrics to use to see if its cheap or expensive right now

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#8) On November 30, 2010 at 12:09 AM, RVAspeculator (29.57) wrote:

Creating your account on 3/9/09 and going long 200 ultra ETFs.  What date should I do that again in the future?  :)

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#9) On November 30, 2010 at 12:11 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

rd80,

Purposely owning anything tied to the Euro, let alone a European bank is sadistic in my opinion. Everyone felt Ireland's banks couldnt possibly get worse and they did, so guess how I feel about Santander. There's too much soverign uncertainty for me to even nibble a bullish tale. Avoid times 10!

TMFUltraLong

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#10) On November 30, 2010 at 12:18 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

soycapital,

Your brother found a very nice income provider in Telefonica. As long as the economy isn't bombing, it looks like a moderate hold. Disturbing how revenues keep falling year after year, but as long as cash flow remains strong I'm not overly concerned.

TMFUltraLong

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#11) On November 30, 2010 at 12:38 AM, zCreator (95.18) wrote:

What do you think of BDSI and the overall bio-pharma sector? :)

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#12) On November 30, 2010 at 12:48 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

GeneralDemon,

Let's imagine for a moment that I had an immaculate memory. That pretty much when I look up a company I know ahead of time what they do, who their competitors are, approximately where they're trading and generally what the average price to earnings, price to book, price to sales, and debt to equity each stock has in the sector this stock is in. Well I don't have to imagine that... I can't recite p/e's off to you, but in very Cramer-esque fashion I already know what I want to say before I say it... I just grab the facts normally to be precise. So to answer your first question... p/e, p/b, p/s, cash, debt/equity, rev growth are very important to me.

If you've got a very high tolerance for risk and reward, I think Gulf Resources in China will give you your best reward. No debt which is a rarity in the chemical sector... high growth, very low p/e but that's expected of those high risk Chinese stocks. For the non-Chinese pick I'm going with Sensient Technologies which I see as a potential buyout candidate...or they could just keep growing... Either way it's worth $46 to me and makes sense as a buy.

TMFUltraLong

PS... is it wrong to have eaten a turkey dinner 5 straight nights?

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#13) On November 30, 2010 at 12:49 AM, Momentum21 (44.33) wrote:

Cinedigm Digital Cinema (CIDM)? 

 

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#14) On November 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

Orient Paper (ONP) just released results for their audit showing no evidence of ANY of the fraud accusations put forth by Muddy Waters.  At $7.24, would you be a buyer, seller, or holder of this stock?  The analysts are gone, but they had projected EPS of 1.50ish back in June 2010 for the FY2011.  

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#15) On November 30, 2010 at 12:56 AM, GenericInvestor (88.89) wrote:

what do you think of Compton Petroleum (CMZPF.PK)? EV98 had a nice write-up in an earlier blog from a few months ago. Thank you. 

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#16) On November 30, 2010 at 1:01 AM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Hey UL,

Taseko Mines (TGB) got a beat down after a proposed gold mining project was rejected by the Canadian govt.  Since their core business is copper, and demand for it will probably exceed supply in the next few years, do you think it is worth buying now even though price for the metal is pretty high?

Or, do you think it may be worth picking up some as a speculative play on the chance that their gold project plan could be accepted with some revision?

Or, should I run like the wind away from this thing? lol.

Whatever your answer, thanks.  It is uber-smart Fools like you that make this website worthwhile.

P.S.... damn only one stock per question? guess I will have to ask you about brother-in-law's plan to sink his life savings into PALG.OB next time, lol.

 

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#17) On November 30, 2010 at 1:07 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

100ozRound,

It's too bad I have such a poor opinion right now of silver -- you probably don't want my opinion on Hecla. Really only like Silver Wheaton and right now even that looks like a moderate sell to me. I just can't justify silver being where it's at without a major pullback first.

TMFUltraLong

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#18) On November 30, 2010 at 1:11 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Valyooo,

IMAX's valuation is staggering in a bad way... 17 times book value for what I feel is a fad. Everybody is going bonkers over the 3D trend and anyone or anything involved in the entertainment business, related or not, is getting the boost. IMAX simply can't keep this up and is about 35% overvalued to me, at minimum! My favorite metric to use here would be reality =)

TMFUltraLong

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#19) On November 30, 2010 at 1:13 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

RVASpeculator,

I actually only picked about 107 ETFs at that time, not 200. If there were 200 to choose from I imagine I'd have BravoBevo type points by now. Just wait for the market to do something incredibly stupid and pounce... that's the secret. It tends to happen about 2-3 times per generation.

TMFUltraLong

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#20) On November 30, 2010 at 1:17 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

ZCreator,

Oh you know exactly what I think of the overall biotech sector... the majority of it is worthless. BioDelivery Sciences is a company I would rather miss the big move on and wait til they get all their ducks in a row and land all the patents they need without any hitches. Let them re-establish profitability and then jump on board. I'd rather have this with a solid two quarters under their belt than get drilled by a 40% loss because production was held up by some Act of God.

TMFUltraLong

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#21) On November 30, 2010 at 1:19 AM, totallyoblivious (31.49) wrote:

I'd love to hear your thoughts on AWH.  While their dividend is a bit underwhelming, their fundamentals look almost too good to be true.

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#22) On November 30, 2010 at 1:22 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Momentum21,

Cinedigm Digital Cinema is merely a daytraders stock. Much like Imax above, I don't think very highly of this 3-D craze. It hasn't proven to be cost effective for consumers and frankly it has the looks of a fad to me. Sure CIDM has revenues supposedly booming, but they can't seem to turn a profit. I'm concerned about their ability to raise cash past 2011.

TMFUltraLong

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#23) On November 30, 2010 at 1:24 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

simplemts,

Orient Paper was always fine... Muddy Waters can go back to pimple-popping and RINO busting or whatever it is they do. I thought ONP was a solid deal back at $7 and I still feel it's worth $9-10.

TMFUltraLong

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#24) On November 30, 2010 at 1:27 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

GenericInvestor,

I don't know very much about Compton Petroleum... pink sheet stocks as a general rule can be a pain in the butt to get information on and I'm all about absorbing that information. From what I can tell they are incredibly erratic with their production and continually losing a few million dollars a year. I'd really need to see what assets they're sitting on to make this seem attractive because from what I see it looks like one of those muddled-middle type companies.

TMFUltraLong

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#25) On November 30, 2010 at 1:30 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

NOTVuffett,

I was about a hair's-width from hitting the submit button to starting an underperform rating on Taseko at $7 and am naturally kicking myself for not doing it. Taseko makes sense here in the $4's and I'd like to see it range between $3.85-$5.35 for the next 6-8 months. If it put in a nice base investors could forget about their mine woes and the stock could probably move forward. Copper continues to be an investment that I think could have some upside... taper those expectations, but it could move higher.

TMFUltraLong

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#26) On November 30, 2010 at 1:33 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

totallyoblivious,

Insurance companies really tick me off with their pitiful dividends. Allied World Assurance gives you a pitance of a dividend, yet they're rolling in cash flow... cheapskates. The company has a solid balance sheet and seems a tad cheap but not overwhelmingly cheap relative to the sector. I like to see insurers trade between 9-12 times earnings and with ANW at about 7.5 it has some room to move higher.

TMFUltraLong

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#27) On November 30, 2010 at 1:45 AM, goalie37 (90.66) wrote:

I would like to hear your thoughts on Universal Health Realty UHT. 

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#28) On November 30, 2010 at 2:00 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

goalie37,

I'm not a huge fan of healthcare REIT's or REIT's in general. Universal Health Realty seems a bit expensive to me trading at 3 times book... just too much to pay for as much debt as they carry. I'd rather pick my poison from National Health Investors in that sector... sure you'll give up a few percent in the dividend department but you should get better growth prospects.

TMFUltraLong

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#29) On November 30, 2010 at 2:07 AM, rancidx3 (38.92) wrote:

Glad to see the blunt man is back in action. What do you think of tncc? Jakila wrote pitched this stock a little while ago.

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#30) On November 30, 2010 at 2:09 AM, Raambo20 (< 20) wrote:

Hey, what do you think about AOB? Massive laggard in my portfolio, very disappointed in it so far.

 Thanks! 

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#31) On November 30, 2010 at 2:15 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

rancidx3,

Yeah I tend to listen to Jakila when he speaks... Tennessee Commerce is a pretty good little company. Sure their loss last quarter was unexpectedly bad and non-performing assets rose, but it came down to just one poor account otherwise non-performing assets are falling steadily. Deposit growth is good, they're making solid profits on interest, and they look moderately-well capitalized. I'd be willing to say it could boast an 11-12 P/e and be fairly valued. Given they can pull down probably 70c in EPS in 2011-2012 a fair value estimate of a 24 month double seems possible. It's a really low volume company so anything could happen, but I wouldn't be shocked in the least if it doubled.

TMFUltraLong

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#32) On November 30, 2010 at 2:18 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Raambo20,

I think I've given up on American Oriental Bioengineering succeeding in anything other than creating one of the longest business names. AOB consistenly fails to live up to expectations -- a clear sign they need to ditch current management. Everyone keeps rallying around the balance sheet but I for one am done with that malarkey. If it's been trading this far below book value for this long I think something fishy is going on and I'd advise staying very far away.

TMFUltraLong

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#33) On November 30, 2010 at 2:37 AM, directd (48.99) wrote:

Hey UL, congrats on the TMF promotion - well deserved.

Wondering if you had any further thoughts on DJSP, I green thumped the thing myself and it's currently my worst pick to date, on the bright side I'm in good company lol .....but am now considering getting in RL as a spec play. Thoughts?

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#34) On November 30, 2010 at 2:43 AM, elboxeo (< 20) wrote:

wnr please

 its been a double for me and was just wondering what you thought of it at this price.

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#35) On November 30, 2010 at 2:47 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

directd,

DJS Enterprises is languishing on its last legs possibly. I really didn't foresee a foreclosure moratorium but I don't think anyone did. It could come around but if you were to throw anymore than 1-2% of your portfolio into this as a 100% pure speculative play I might have to personally come over and slap you silly. I'm not going anywhere near it with my own money.

TMFUltraLong

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#36) On November 30, 2010 at 2:50 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

elboxeo,

It's about time Western Refining investors discovered the buy button but I agree it's getting toward a fair valuation here. I'm back to being in the Valero Energy camp... that remains my favorite refining play and I continue to be very bullish on refiners.

TMFUltraLong

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#37) On November 30, 2010 at 3:14 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Disturbing how revenues keep falling year after year

2005 37.9 billion EUR
2006 52.9 billion EUR
2007 56.4 billion EUR
2008 57.9 billion EUR
2009 56.7 billion EUR
2010e 60.3 billion EUR
2011e 64 billion EUR

TEF/STD/DB is currently a 0.8/0.5/0.4% position in my portfolio (see comments #40,42 here). I think it is good idea to buy a few shares of a few European banks this week. The "Europe is in trouble" stuff is mostly utter nonsense, hehe ...

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#38) On November 30, 2010 at 3:33 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Portefeuille,

The numbers I have on Telefonica show them trekking backwards by 1-2% per year despite our "recovery." You and I have had our differences regarding the European situation and I think it largely stems from the fact that you live there and I live here and we just see things differently. We both could somehow be right... but I'd rather be wrong and unharmed from my investments than wrong and broke =)

TMFUltraLong

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#39) On November 30, 2010 at 4:19 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

The numbers I have on Telefonica show them trekking backwards by 1-2% per year

That would be from 2008 to 2009. Maybe your numbers are some kind of "organic growth" numbers or you look at revenue expressed in some exotic currency.

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#40) On November 30, 2010 at 4:22 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#39 or "in constant currencies". Or maybe they are just wrong, hehe ...

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#41) On November 30, 2010 at 4:30 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

-------------

Ifo Business Climate Germany

Ifo Business Survey November 2010

Continued Bettering of the Ifo Business Climate

Results of the November 2010 Ifo Business Survey

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for industry and trade in Germany has risen again in November and is now above the level of the 2006/2007 boom. Both the current business situation as well as the business outlook for the coming half year have been assessed more positively by the firms. The upswing in the German economy is gaining more and more strength.

In manufacturing the business climate index has risen further. The firms are clearly more satisfied with their business situation than in October. In addition, the survey participants anticipate a favourable development in the near term, their expectations for business in the coming six months having risen. In terms of exports, however, the stimulus they expect is not as strong as in the past month. However, because of the improved expectations for demand in capital goods, which is a major element of domestic demand, this effect will be more than offset. Staff levels are set to expand further.

In retailing and in wholesaling the business climate has improved. Although retailers have not given such glowing assessments of their current situation as in the past month, with regard to the six-month business outlook they are clearly more optimistic. Survey participants in wholesaling have given more favourable assessments of both their current business situation as well as their near-term prospects.

The business climate has also improved further in construction. The surveyed building contractors are clearly more satisfied with their current business situation than in October. However, they are not quite as confident about business development in the coming half year as before.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

-------------

 



enlarge

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#42) On November 30, 2010 at 4:33 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#41 I guess some sectors in some parts of Europe are currently in the "least in trouble" zone ...

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#43) On November 30, 2010 at 4:50 AM, IgnoreTheCrowd (< 20) wrote:

Any ideas on ALNY and SNV?

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#44) On November 30, 2010 at 5:36 AM, fmahnke (88.19) wrote:

FBC ??

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#45) On November 30, 2010 at 6:59 AM, KurtEng (31.11) wrote:

I would like your opinion on Telvent Git (TLVT). I think a smart grid is something that will happen and some companies will make a lot of money from it. I don't know much about Telvent's products vs. the competition though.

 

Thanks.

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#46) On November 30, 2010 at 7:06 AM, Jawa157 (< 20) wrote:

HI TMFUltraLong,

Great to see the new title, congrats!

Wanted to get your opinion on Rubicon Minerals Corp. (RBY), it had a big pop yesterday after releasing a inferred mineral resource estimate and I just wanted to see your thoughts on the company going into the future.

Thanks, and its great to have another addition of Ask A Blunt Man, my absolutly favorite thing to read with my morning coffee.

Take care,

Jawa157

 

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#47) On November 30, 2010 at 8:40 AM, 100ozRound (29.42) wrote:

How about Denison Mines (DNN)?

p.s. You should do another "bash my stock" thread soon.  That was fun!

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#48) On November 30, 2010 at 8:59 AM, PainterPoker (22.56) wrote:

Hello UL,

Any thoughts on COIN?  I like their business idea, but I'm losing money as an investment.  Now that they own Terrasphere and so many states are legalizing MJ, I'm hoping they will finally find a strong growing market for their products...  And, they are trading at an all time low right now.

 Thanks a bunch! 

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#49) On November 30, 2010 at 9:01 AM, SkepticalOx (99.53) wrote:

Are you Jim Cramer or a clone of him?

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#50) On November 30, 2010 at 9:10 AM, lemoneater (71.35) wrote:

Yay! You mentioned NHI as a better REIT than some. It is my first and only REIT so far.

 

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#51) On November 30, 2010 at 10:36 AM, TheLastYetti21 (30.23) wrote:

GNK, are the shorts right or are they about to get squeezed?

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#52) On November 30, 2010 at 10:44 AM, vchelimella (< 20) wrote:

Hi Ultra whatsyour opinion on IRE,GCA and CTIB

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#53) On November 30, 2010 at 10:48 AM, Dormin111ob (97.26) wrote:

UL,

I know you shorted Netflix a while ago due to its inflated price, but since then it has nearly doubled and doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Do you think Netflix managment has the smarts to transition to full digital distribution and match their current price evaluation or at least something close to it?

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#54) On November 30, 2010 at 11:02 AM, EnigmaDude (87.06) wrote:

What do you think of TSYS at today's price (~$4.50)?

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#55) On November 30, 2010 at 11:41 AM, EnigmaDude (87.06) wrote:

By the way, I think you are missing the whole growth story/brand recognition that makes IMAX a good investment. I have been watching them grow for the past 3 years and they are finally getting the market recognition that they deserve.

+$0.10

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#56) On November 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Crystal ball-at what price will NBG be in a year from now?

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#57) On November 30, 2010 at 12:41 PM, pastordisaster (< 20) wrote:

What are your thoughts on CAVO?

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#58) On November 30, 2010 at 12:46 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

GST

Gastar is now likely the most levered company in the Marcellus by enterprise value. Where do you see the price going from here? Currently $4.70

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#59) On November 30, 2010 at 12:52 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

IKAN

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#60) On November 30, 2010 at 12:53 PM, Tagit (64.98) wrote:

VLNC

 

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#61) On November 30, 2010 at 12:59 PM, PaxtorReborn (29.85) wrote:

Which girl should I ask out ?

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#62) On November 30, 2010 at 1:07 PM, 100ozRound (29.42) wrote:

Paxtor - need pics first

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#63) On November 30, 2010 at 1:23 PM, Ticker007 (< 20) wrote:

ACFN - I see it heading to $8, what's your take?

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#64) On November 30, 2010 at 1:33 PM, Borbality (50.84) wrote:

Would love to hear what you think about EBIX. Thanks so much for entertaining our questions! 

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#65) On November 30, 2010 at 1:57 PM, Euro247 (35.38) wrote:

Hi Ultra, after today's pricing release for their drug, what are your thoughts on SVNT?

 

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#66) On November 30, 2010 at 2:31 PM, Turfscape (42.48) wrote:

Woo Hoo...Love the Blunt Man!

Okay, so where's the winner for 2011 in dry bulk shipping: Navios Maritime (NM), Diana Shipping (DSX), or skipping the industry outright and investing in miners?

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#67) On November 30, 2010 at 2:41 PM, truleuneek (< 20) wrote:

I'll throw a softball at ya...

MCZ

It seems like it went against its MO this time and kept the pop after releasing earnings instead of sinking back down like it usually does.  Also, any idea why it jumped last week without any news at all?

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#68) On November 30, 2010 at 2:42 PM, truleuneek (< 20) wrote:

I'd also like an informed opinion on AMAT.  Am I crazy for owning this one?

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#69) On November 30, 2010 at 3:36 PM, Chrisynd (< 20) wrote:

How's ABAT looking? They took a big hit today...

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#70) On November 30, 2010 at 3:49 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

"Ask a Blunt Man"?  Is that like the Onion's "Ask a Salmon?

;)

 

Alright, alright ... any thoughts on Sonabank (SONA)?  It's one of my favorites right now, but I've never gotten around to writing about it. 

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#71) On November 30, 2010 at 5:09 PM, PainterPoker (22.56) wrote:

Harbin Electric- HRBN is looking like a good buy right now at 16.24.  Yes?

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#72) On November 30, 2010 at 8:37 PM, MethodologyTest (21.39) wrote:

Your thoughts on MTSN (Mattson Technology Inc.)? 

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#73) On November 30, 2010 at 8:40 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

Gotta go with spkl.ob- Spicey Pickle?

Also is this a race with TMFbabo, to see who gets the most comments :)

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#74) On November 30, 2010 at 8:43 PM, GeneralDemon (< 20) wrote:

BP - your thoughts? Resumption of the divi timeframe?

Hope your five days of turkey dinner included plenty of stuffing. (that is if you like stuffing)

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#75) On November 30, 2010 at 9:23 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

@HarryCarysGhost (boy do I miss your shorter name): TMFUltraLong wins if he answers all the questions, lol.  This blog actually has a purpose, so I expect it to far exceed mine soon enough.  Foolanthropy on!

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#76) On November 30, 2010 at 9:30 PM, jatt22 (40.83) wrote:

no q , just simple plain hello  wth smile .

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#77) On November 30, 2010 at 9:31 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Portefeuille,

My figures show erratic growth at Telefonica, but I know better than to go head to head with you in charts... you can find more in your pinky than I could in a half hour.

TMFUltraLong

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#78) On November 30, 2010 at 9:35 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

coolpark,

I'll take ALNY for now...one stock per comment. If you want to hear about additional stocks down the road I will absolutely entertain them, but due to time constraints and my want to get a lot of comments for charity (and not just single letter comments), I think allowing only one stock per comment makes sense.

Everyone keeps looking for the dead cat bounce out of Alynlam and I just don't see where the allure is. Yeah they have $5+ in cash with no debt but there aren't any profits to speak of. If they keep losing money quarter after quarter that cash pile will be meaningless. I'd rather avoid it.

TMFUltraLong

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#79) On November 30, 2010 at 9:37 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

fmahnke,

Flagstar Bancorp "could" and I say that very loosely, turn a very small profit in 2011 and 2012, but I expect their non-performing assets could continue to rise. Their balance sheet is a mess and so is their stock because of it. Avoid...

TMFUltraLong

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#80) On November 30, 2010 at 9:41 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

KurtEng,

Good find in Telvent.. they currently occupy a spot in the set it and forget it UltraRetirement portfolio. 10% yearly revenue growth, solidly profitable and maybe even a chance for a small dividend in the next few years. I like it to say the least.

TMFUltraLong

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#81) On November 30, 2010 at 9:44 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Jawa157,

I'm really not a huge fan of mineral tests being the sole reason a stock moves higher, but that's exactly what happened with Rubicon Minerals. No real revenues yet...just pure hope at the moment. Not my cup of tea. Show me the beef!

TMFUltraLong

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#82) On November 30, 2010 at 9:47 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

100ozRound,

What's up with all of these miners? Uranium has been on fire recently but I'd consider it more than a blip than a continued trend. I'm more interested in Denison Mines vanadium operations which I see as the better play. Molybdenum, palladium and vanadium look good to go to me. DNN could be a sneaky play if it backs off its current levels.

TMFUltraLong

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#83) On November 30, 2010 at 9:49 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PainterPoker,

Converted Organics is toast... they've fallen a ton and still trade at over 6 times book. Potash and other fertilizer companies are raking it in while COIN eats dirt (har har har). They're burning through cash at an alarming rate. No thanks, pass the lima beans.

TMFUltraLong

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#84) On November 30, 2010 at 9:50 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

SkepticalOx,

Nope, not Jim Cramer, but definitely better looking than him =)

TMFUltraLong

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#85) On November 30, 2010 at 9:51 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Lemoneater,

Don't get too overwhelmed...I'm not a huge fan of Health REIT's, but NHI does look like a better long-term play than the rest.

TMFUltraLong

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#86) On November 30, 2010 at 9:54 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

TheLastYetti21,

The best analysis of Genko Shipping came from TMFBabo but as I've said numerous times before, I do not like the shipping sector one bit. Tidewater is the only so-so buy that I can see and I wouldn't even go there right now.

TMFUltraLong

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#87) On November 30, 2010 at 9:56 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

vchelimella,

I'm only going to respond to the first stock symbol because of the one stock per comment stipulations from above. I'm happy to answer the rest at a later time just remember, one stock per post.

The Bank of Ireland moved from life support to the ICU this week. Is that really an improvement? To me...no. I still say if you have a penchant for danger and want to gamble the daylights out of this European banking crisis I'd bet on Lloyds.

TMFUltraLong

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#88) On November 30, 2010 at 9:58 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Dormin111ob,

Netflix made no sense to me at $100 and it makes even less sense to me at $200. I've read countless stories why they should trade lower but everything here will just take some time to settle out. My main beef with Netflix is it's valuation. I know they're the big player in their business, I just can't justify it trading over a P/e of about 25...and its way way way over that right now.

TMFUltraLong

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#89) On November 30, 2010 at 10:01 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

EnigmaDude,

I dumped Telecommunication Systems around here in CAPS a few months ago because I felt it was fairly valued and I'm going to stick with that assertion. It's not a bad company, the growth is there, but I'm not convinced their margins are healthy enough to bump this any higher. I have a feeling you'll get another chance to buy TSYS lower than where we are now and I'll wait for that time. (i.e below book value).

TMFUltraLong

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#90) On November 30, 2010 at 10:02 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

EnigmaDude,

I don't think I'm missing anything behind IMAX's numbers outside of how they overshot their fair valuation by a clean 30-40%. I don't think I could justify their current price if I had a shot of whisky in one hand and a handful of mushrooms in the other.

TMFUltraLong

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#91) On November 30, 2010 at 10:04 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Pennyperson,

Remembering these questions are all just loose opinions/sarcasm from me, the National bank of Greece will be sitting at $1.99 one year from now.

TMFUltraLong

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#92) On November 30, 2010 at 10:06 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

pastordisaster,

Talk about a slap in the face... Cavico went from expecting a profit of 50c for the year to a loss of $3 for the year. Backlog remains strong, revenues look ok, orders seem decent... they just can't manage their way out of a paper bag. I am looking closely at potentially making an investment into CAVO but currently own none of it.

TMFUltraLong

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#93) On November 30, 2010 at 10:08 PM, RVAspeculator (29.57) wrote:

UltraLong...

I created one new account on the day of the October bottom with 200 ultras...  it is named Endisnothere.

That guy is only at #74 though because I really havent done anything else with him since and I created it on the October bottom and not the March bottom.

Who was your account before?  I may have known him as I have been here forever. 

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#94) On November 30, 2010 at 10:08 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Pennyperson,

Confucious say you find awesome stock. Gastar is looking really good. I actually like them a lot from their natural gas holdings. If you're going to play the Marcellus Shale I like GST...expecting double digits within 18 months in their stock price if they can hit on all cylinders.

TMFUltraLong

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#95) On November 30, 2010 at 10:10 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Tagit,

Still like Ikanos Communications despite the fact that they'd write down their mother if they could. Management changes and everything but the kitchen sink looks like a negative but I see strong revenue growth and roughly 20-25c in EPS by 2012. Solid buy that could also find its way into my portfolio. Currently I own none of it.

TMFUltraLong

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#96) On November 30, 2010 at 10:12 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Tagit,

Valence Technology was one of the company's that I picked out that could really move in 2010 back in January. Although they'll get nowhere near the 300% speculative move I was looking for they are getting press for their lithium batteries. I find it more likely that they'll be absorbed by someone else in the next 3 years than continue as an independent entity but I'm not overly thrilled about buying in here. $1.60 seems like a reasonable top for VLNC over the next six months...then we'll re-evaluate.

TMFUltraLong

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#97) On November 30, 2010 at 10:13 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PaxtorReborn,

Ask out the younger one if you're looking for a girlfriend, ask out the older one if you're looking for a wife =)

TMFUltraLong

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#98) On November 30, 2010 at 10:14 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

100ozRound,

Correct....pictures would be a good thing, unless of course its Carolin Schober of CNBC Europe... then she wins by default as we discussed in the last Ask A Blunt Man.

TMFUltraLong

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#99) On November 30, 2010 at 10:17 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Ticker007,

Just looking at this from a technical perspective which is I guess where your question is derived from, I actually feel it's heading to $2.70. This has a really hard time breaking out of channels and it's likely that it won't find a breakout support until it challenges that breakout area of July 2009. They're cranking out losses anyways so no reason to think you won't get that level.

TMFUltraLong

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#100) On November 30, 2010 at 10:20 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Borbality,

In my incredible laziness (yes I can be lazy) I think I have EBIX in the UltraRetirement set it and forget it long only portfolio and if I don't...I should. Competitors should be taking detailed notes on how EBIX runs its business because they are phenomenal. It's one of those companies that either shoots up 200% a decade or gets bought out at a nice premium.

TMFUltraLong

PS... Congratulations on earning $10 for charity folks....thus far

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#101) On November 30, 2010 at 10:22 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Euro247,

I wasn't too concerned with the pricing of KRYSTEXXA, I really only care with how well they can sell the product. I think it bears some watching how well received it is over the next 6 months. Again, you could miss the big move, but if the big move is downward, you'll be much happier.

TMFUltraLong

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#102) On November 30, 2010 at 10:24 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Turfscape,

Congratulations.. you've just mentioned two sectors I absolutely loathe for the most part... that's like asking me to choose between what ticks me off more... pan flute bands or high school kids in front of me at the fast food line.... there's no good answer. Avoid them both.

TMFUltraLong

PS... More answers coming later tonight. Dinner and more writing await.

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#103) On November 30, 2010 at 10:51 PM, vchelimella (< 20) wrote:

Your opinion on GCA Master , got in @2.85 todays its at multi year low you see any hope me atleast breaking even on this

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#104) On December 01, 2010 at 1:57 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

truleuneek,

Well of course Mad Catz is rallying... it needs to make good on my prediction that it would hit $1.15 by Christmas which I made what seems like eons ago. Mad Catz is a good company, with a good product line that generally is profitable. It should regularly trade in the 80c to $1.20 range. I wouldn't be shocked to see it pullback a bit here but once again its cylical and yet I'd still say buy it for the long-haul.

TMFUltraLong

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#105) On December 01, 2010 at 2:04 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

truleuneek,

Applied Materials is part of the UltraRetirement set it and forget it portfolio. I don't see any reason you wouldn't want to own them. Historically they are trading at some very attractive p/e ratios and they're the cornerstone to the semiconductor industry. More companies are beating to the upside there than aren't at the moment so it remains a solid long-term play.

TMFUltraLong

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#106) On December 01, 2010 at 2:07 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

chrisnyd,

Chinese corporations and their damn share offerings... they need to beaten over their heads sometimes. Nothing has fundamentally changed with ABAT and it remains a solid long-term investment. Really the only thing that could derail them is a delay in production which I have to admit is something that is pervading throughout the sector. All in all, still a strong play despite the stupid move to raise more cash at shareholders' expense.

TMFUltraLong

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#107) On December 01, 2010 at 2:56 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

Babo-

my goal is people will just be so lazy and I'm Caps famous enough for it to just be HCG :)

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#108) On December 01, 2010 at 6:22 AM, cancerrx (29.45) wrote:

UL:

I believe you avoid small biotechs, but I am curious about your opinion of Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI). It's a fascinating company that continues to garner more and more government funding. One of it's major compounds, CBLB502, is designed to protect people following radiation exposure -- this has potential military and clinical applications. The compound has been given fast-track status and, yesterday, additionally received orphan status. They have other compounds as well.

 Thanks in advance!

CancerRx

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#109) On December 01, 2010 at 9:45 AM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Dear UL, 
I have small RL profolio with a "basket" of  8 china growth stocks.  NIV, CHNG, FUQI, LPH, CRTP, BSPM, LTUS.OB, and HEAT. 

What is your favorite China growth stock in terms of risk vs. reward over the long term?

Thank you for your time.  Dave

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#110) On December 01, 2010 at 10:05 AM, JimBobbly (20.10) wrote:

Dear UL,

What's your current view on APWR going forward, considering they've missed their earnings, again today!

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#111) On December 01, 2010 at 10:44 AM, Chrisynd (< 20) wrote:

Ultralong,

Thanks for the comments on ABAT; I was wondering if you had some follow-up on GXDX as well.  It's been slaughtered since your pick quite some time ago.

Cheers,

-Chris 

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#112) On December 01, 2010 at 10:44 AM, SINOHAN (< 20) wrote:


  Dear UL,   The selling of CSKI done yet?    Thanks 

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#113) On December 01, 2010 at 11:04 AM, PaxtorReborn (29.85) wrote:

Ultra,

Can I sue you if your advice doesn't play out to my advantage?

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#114) On December 01, 2010 at 1:58 PM, IgnoreTheCrowd (< 20) wrote:

Thanks a lot for the comments on ALNY.

What is your opinion on SNV?

Thanks!

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#115) On December 01, 2010 at 2:54 PM, woodszilla2010 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Ultra,

Wanted to thank you for bringing MCZ to my attention earlier this year.  I sold on 11/24 after it popped ~35% in 2 days on no news.  Expecting a dip, will reevaluate when/if it does.

 

What are your thoughts on CVVT?

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#116) On December 01, 2010 at 3:15 PM, Ticker007 (< 20) wrote:

GMXR

BTW, anyway chance (please) to start your answer with a comment #. The last time you gave us all your grand advise; I'd spend a hell of alot of time going back and forth seeing who suggested the ticker symbol/question vs. your answer. This way we could scroll right back to the # = eaiser. :)

BTW - I nailed DDS, a stock you didn't like the last time around =). But, it's seen its day and I'm about to close the pick- twas a heck of a run tho.

Congrats on the TMF thing - you da man.

 

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#117) On December 01, 2010 at 5:21 PM, SINOHAN (< 20) wrote:


  Hi UL,  This is an other one HEAT what is happening with this  when I look in the cap you are still backing this up.  Thanks   Sino 

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#118) On December 01, 2010 at 7:00 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

Well, I guess you can tell I like oil and gas related stocks.

Stock-RAME  

Josh Young, a portfolio manager with Los Angeles, California-based Young Capital Management, is a value investor on the hunt for undervalued companies in the oil and gas space

Rame is his largest holding - what's he seeing in his crystal ball or should I say what's your take.

Is it worth 1000 share buy in at this price?

LOL - sold all of my shares of NBG today after your remark above. Lost a few hundred bucks -oh well - life rolls on.

I'm going with Gastar unless you think Rame has a better 1yr return. I scored big with LNG so I have new money to invest - HA

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#119) On December 01, 2010 at 7:12 PM, PIGMA (27.95) wrote:

When will ITI breakout and hit $2?

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#120) On December 01, 2010 at 8:23 PM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

CHK or ECA?

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#121) On December 01, 2010 at 10:50 PM, Jawa157 (< 20) wrote:

Wanted to get your thoughts on TC? They have a bit more beef on their plate than RBY : )

Thanks

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#122) On December 01, 2010 at 11:30 PM, MagnmInvestor (< 20) wrote:

Hi UL- how do u feel about CBEH, another China play?  What do u think fair value is for it and potential upside in the near future? Thanks.

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#123) On December 02, 2010 at 2:55 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

JakilatheHun,

Sonabank... I made an attempt to respond last night but Comcast decided it would vomit all over itself for about two hours and that went your response. The long-short of it is that net interest income is up, loans are up, everything seems good. One loan accounted for most of the write-offs.. I'd just like a better look at what their doubtful accounts look like, but for a quick look I think it's a moderately undervalued play.

TMFUltraLong

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#124) On December 02, 2010 at 2:56 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PainterPoker,

More auditor issues than financial issues with Harbin. I'd like to think you go out and buy, but with RINO not currently in the clear I think you have to back off and do nothing until the smoke clears. Honestly I could see HRBN also doing an internal audit especially after RINO's issues. Strong growth but too many questions with their auditor... stay away.

TMFUltraLong

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#125) On December 02, 2010 at 3:00 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

MethodologyTest,

Mattson looks like a good buy - it's not a gimme but it makes sense. I mean the company has 80 cents in cash and they're slated in 2012 to make essentially the same revenue and profits they produced in 2007 when they were trading between $7-$8. Valuations then we're a bit absurd but I think it makes a reasonable buy here. The only downside is the company is brutally cyclical so don't be shocked if it tops out in 2012.

TMFUltraLong

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#126) On December 02, 2010 at 3:02 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

Spicy Pickle is one hot tamale that is headed toward an eventual bankruptcy. Where the heck did you find this company anyways? Props for the odd name.

And no, this isn't a race with Babo, just another way of raising money for charity.

TMFUltraLong

PS... he's a Phillies fan, we can't let him win! =)

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#127) On December 02, 2010 at 3:05 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

GeneralDemon,

No reason that BP has to go more than 3-6 more months without resuming that glorious dividend. They're probably giving themselves a 3-4 month period to really understand the cost structure of their settlements...once that's done which should be February I would figure by April at the latest we should have a re-emergence of their dividend. As for the long-haul they remain a solid buy.

TMFUltraLong

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#128) On December 02, 2010 at 3:06 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

TMFBabo,

Our blogs both have the same purpose in that we want to raise money for charity... however since you are a Phillies fan you are clearly wrong =)

TMFUltraLong

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#129) On December 02, 2010 at 3:07 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

jatt22,

Well greetings with a wink I guess huh? lol

TMFUltraLong

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#130) On December 02, 2010 at 3:09 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

RVASpeculator,

Before UltraLong there existed only empty space... i.e I didn't have a MF Caps account prior to UltraLong. Since then though there has been UltraOlympus, UltraCrap, UltraRetirement and UltraChina. I was born 03/07/2009, I'm getting my baby teeth now...

TMFUltraLong

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#131) On December 02, 2010 at 3:14 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

vchelimella,

Cash flow at Global Cash Access has been absolutely terrible. Revenues keep heading in the wrong direction and they keep missing analyst figures. I could see a small bounce in the $1.85-$2.20 area but I don't see it going much past your buy in point if at all, sorry to say.

TMFUltraLong

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#132) On December 02, 2010 at 3:15 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

HCG is Home Capital Group on the Toronto Stock Exchange...obviously everyone is going to think of that when they see your acronym now *rolls eyes*

TMFUltraLong

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#133) On December 02, 2010 at 3:20 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

cancerrx,

I mean everything seems to be going right for Cleveland BioLabs, I just have a problem buying into what is always a 50/50 outcome that either doubles your money or shoots you screaming toward $0. I'd rather wait on the sidelines for the results and buy in once the drug(s) begin selling. At least that way you know you have a tangible product and the chances of your investment halving overnight are minimal. On the all however this has a considerably stronger chance of succeeding than most cancer related biotechs.

TMFUltraLong

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#134) On December 02, 2010 at 3:23 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

openhandedgrouse,

Out of that group, Nivs IntelliMedia is my favorite. They continually grow earnings and keep margins consistent. Expect some hiccups but as long as they remain strongly profitable they should be moving up nicely over the next five years.

TMFUltraLong

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#135) On December 02, 2010 at 3:26 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

JimBobbly,

Seriously, we need to drag the exec's from A-Power out into a New York alley and egg them. They suck! They couldn't forecast their own revenues if they were playing non-blindfolded pin the tail on the corporate forecast! How they keep missing their own guidance so badly is beyond me. It remains cheap but their management deserves a kick in the pants or an ouster.

TMFUltraLong

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#136) On December 02, 2010 at 3:29 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Chrisynd,

Genoptix was actually up nicely for a few months after my initial pick, but fell off like a bucket of rocks off the dock over the last few months. GXDX has actually gone from a growth play to a value play. They have nearly $8 in cash but growth has slowed to a crawl in the mid single digits. They look like a takeover play on the surface but I'm just not sure who'd step up to the plate to buy them. I'm sticking with GXDX as a buy, but nowhere near as strong a buy as I once thought.

TMFUltraLong

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#137) On December 02, 2010 at 3:32 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Sinohan,

China Sky Medical has been beaten because a few of its herbal products "might" be considered dangerous which has chased a few of their clients away. CSKI should have been beaten down given the loss of revenue to the tune of 20% or so, but yeah it makes sense to be buying lightly at these levels. So many other problems in the sector, i.e RINO, make me leery about saying it's a buy, but it has a strong balance sheet which makes it intriguing as long as it remains profitable.

TMFUltraLong

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#138) On December 02, 2010 at 3:34 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PaxtorReborn,

You can sue me, but you likely won't win given that I stated in the opening comment that I'm not responsible for your trades, that you make your own buy and sell decisions, and that in the end, I didn't do it.... Urkel did.

TMFUltraLong

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#139) On December 02, 2010 at 8:04 AM, lemoneater (71.35) wrote:

@ #85 Don't be too concerned, UltraLong, my love of variety protects me from having any one position too large. My present position in NHI is $770 which is about 4% of my current portifolio. The share price increased about 29% from when I bought it.

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#140) On December 02, 2010 at 9:48 AM, Turfscape (42.48) wrote:

TMFUltraLong,

Maple glazed donuts versus Hot glazed doughnuts...In a street fight between Tim Hortons (THI)  and Krispy Kreme (KKD), who wins?

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#141) On December 02, 2010 at 10:50 AM, darroj (28.96) wrote:

UL,

Congrats on TMF title! I'd like your view on ANW.

-darroj

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#142) On December 02, 2010 at 10:51 AM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Artificial Life (ALIF) still screams buy in my book, what does your magic 8 ball say?

btw +0.10 for charity, woo!

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#143) On December 02, 2010 at 11:03 AM, darroj (28.96) wrote:

and since its for chariry, I'll throw in another, SUTR :)

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#144) On December 02, 2010 at 12:16 PM, Schneezy (28.63) wrote:

Bluntman,

 Why is HGSI trading at $25? Everything I'm looking at suggests that it should be closer $6. Is Mr. Market going nuts or am I?

 Thanks

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#145) On December 02, 2010 at 12:35 PM, PaxtorReborn (29.85) wrote:

 What do you think about TSX:HCG then?  Are they going to flame out when Canada's subprime mess unfolds?

 

 #132) On December 02, 2010 at 3:15 AM, TMFUltraLong (100.00) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

HCG is Home Capital Group on the Toronto Stock Exchange...obviously everyone is going to think of that when they see your acronym now *rolls eyes*

TMFUltraLong

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#146) On December 02, 2010 at 1:23 PM, Turfscape (42.48) wrote:

TMFUltraLong:

Should I buy a Chryler? Or, rephrased as an ethical question, is it right to buy a Chrysler?

(20 extra cents for identifying the reference)

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#147) On December 02, 2010 at 2:04 PM, chintucool (< 20) wrote:

Big time follower of you!!

 

what do you think about NEP and LPH?

I am very bullish about OIL and Banking sector for next 1-3 years but want to play stocks which are underrated and have high potential to rise(may include risks but willing to take).

 

Any suggestions will be highly appreciated.

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#148) On December 02, 2010 at 3:31 PM, chintucool (< 20) wrote:

^^Sorry I had put two stocks in the same post. My apologies

what's your take on LPH?

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#149) On December 02, 2010 at 4:20 PM, rexlove (99.57) wrote:

UL,

 

CISG (Cninsure) had a huge drop today - all apparently on rumour. I couldnt find any real news to explain it. Potential long term buy opportunity?

I did a day trade on it today and made a few bucks but could have made a killing if I timed it better. 

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#150) On December 02, 2010 at 6:59 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

Wow, am I slow, I was wondering why you answered the HCG comment twice for five minutes before I saw the #132 and realized that PaxtorReborn wrote it. DOH! :)

Ok UL can I get an update on your thoughts of TASR. I like the products but not fond of management. 

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#151) On December 02, 2010 at 11:14 PM, chaimyl (94.42) wrote:

$15.10 to Charity 

 

UL

 

what do you think about momentum trading, Technical Trading, or Sector Trading, also have you consistently made money on options? 

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#152) On December 03, 2010 at 3:31 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

I'll crank out more answers over the next few days folks - I no longer have free time like I used to have but all questions will be answered, or laughed at.... or both.

TMFUltraLong

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#153) On December 03, 2010 at 11:58 AM, Nostrademous (< 20) wrote:

BIDU? Crazy P/E but it seems like it has been going down lately from 108 :P

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#154) On December 03, 2010 at 12:16 PM, truleuneek (< 20) wrote:

Who's going to win the superbowl this season?  NBA Championship?

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#155) On December 03, 2010 at 1:23 PM, rebello15 (< 20) wrote:

Thoughts on the steel market and US Steel's future share price?

 

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#156) On December 03, 2010 at 1:24 PM, rebello15 (< 20) wrote:

Thoughts on the steel market and US Steel's future share price?

 

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#157) On December 03, 2010 at 1:41 PM, Jawa157 (< 20) wrote:

TMFUltraLong, 

What are you thoughts on CY, they've been on a run over the last three months.

 Thanks

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#158) On December 03, 2010 at 3:07 PM, kewlness (95.89) wrote:

Does a pun get an extra dime donated or is it purely its own reword?

Care to CRY me a river? :)

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#159) On December 04, 2010 at 2:38 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

ContrarianMove,

Synovus Financial is an upside-down turtle. Revenues have been moving the wrong way since seemingly forever and losses look to continue into 2013 I figure. Move along...nothing to see here.... there's nothing to see here folks...

TMFUltraLong

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#160) On December 04, 2010 at 2:42 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

woodszilla2010,

China Valve Technologies is sitting in my CAPS queue as a limit buy if it gets low enough to trigger my price. I think the RINO fears are overblown from an auditor standpoint. CVVT has a solid set of products and good growth with tons of cash. It has my thumbs up for as much as you can trust a Chinese company at present.

TMFUltraLong

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#161) On December 04, 2010 at 2:48 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Ticker007

#116 - GMX Resources is inexpensive because no one can tell if the government is going to continue to vomit its policies all over the oil sector in the Gulf or if they'll just let everybody play by themselves. GMX's profit projections could come way down.. I see 52-53c going forward and I wouldn't be shocked to see that fall to 32-33c... but even then it makes for an intriguing play. Don't devote too much to it, but I can see it having a shot.

TMFUltraLong

PS... Dillard's was and still is a terribly run company, but sometimes investors play those technicals regardless of that.

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#162) On December 04, 2010 at 2:53 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

SINOHAN,

#117 - SmartHeat is stupidly cheap...the only thing they lack is a ton of cash on their balance sheet like other Chinese names. They're down to like 6 times 2011 with 20% growth... insane! Of course I'm going to back that 0.3 PEG.

TMFUltraLong

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#163) On December 04, 2010 at 2:59 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Pennyperson,

#118 - Can't say I'm a huge fan of RAM Energy Resources. This is a company that loves to spike now and then and is nothing more than a passing glance for most daytraders. They're treading around breakeven results and their proven reserves don't exactly tickle my fancy. This is a play to own if natural gas starts moving over $5-$5.50, otherwise expect breakeven results....meaning its already pricey here at $1.73.

TMFUltraLong

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#164) On December 04, 2010 at 3:14 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PIGMA,

#119 - I figure Iteris will make that move sometime in February based on technicals alone.

TMFUltraLong

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#165) On December 04, 2010 at 3:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

GrowthnValue,

#120 - Chesapeake Energy any day of the week

TMFUltraLong

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#166) On December 04, 2010 at 8:27 AM, fmahnke (88.19) wrote:

Hey UL,

Am intrested in your opinion as to the fair value of SVU.. Thanks 

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#167) On December 04, 2010 at 12:30 PM, Morijo (27.31) wrote:

Hi UL

 

Thought on TTT? Thank you!

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#168) On December 04, 2010 at 12:56 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

What are your thoughts on natural gas? I know this isn't a stock request, but here's my short version on higher natural gas:

1. Too many producers are operating at far above breakeven

2. Hedges unfavorable to the producers will eventually start to roll off

3. It's the only commodity that hasn't run up.  Seriously, everything else is much higher than before: coal, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, coal, sugar, coffee, etc.

4. Oil/natural gas ratio is at a historically high number (I've heard "all-time" but I haven't researched to confirm).  This is a number with actual utility (amount of energy produced), since 5000-6000 mcf of natural gas and 1 barrel of oil produce roughly the same amount of energy

5. The increased supply is not a "new normal" - some producers drill despite bad economics because of land lease issues

Agree or disagree? I'm not asking for natural gas prices to go to the moon, but I think $5 to $6 is a much more appropriate range right now per mcf.

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#169) On December 04, 2010 at 3:47 PM, deltafox2 (< 20) wrote:

PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI)    - I'm sorry it's a Bio Pharma, but if figures fairly high up on the grahaminvestor.com intrinsic value screener. 

Great Blog!

 

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#170) On December 04, 2010 at 5:24 PM, MethodologyTest (21.39) wrote:

Thank you for your thoughts on Mattson (MTSN).  It's been good to me so far, and I beleive it will do good for the next six months.  I'm glad to hear your thoughts going into 2012 because I don't try to forecast out more than 12 months.  Thanks         

How about MGIC (Magic Software Enterprises)?  I've bought and sold this stock twice this year for good returns.  I don't hold now since I recently sold it, but I'd love to get back in on a pullback.  Do you feel it will come back to 4.80 during the month of December?  If not, what would you consider the next good entry point for this stock? 

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#171) On December 04, 2010 at 9:37 PM, PainterPoker (22.56) wrote:

Thanks for the advice UL.

Maybe I shouldn't have bought COIN... No profits, little revenue, they suck at business etc... ok, but now that I own em (a smallish portion,) I'm going to stick this one out.  I like what they are doing for the environment and that has got to be worth something. 

P.S. COIN was a five-star stock

 

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#172) On December 04, 2010 at 9:43 PM, PainterPoker (22.56) wrote:

What is up with Groupon?  Can they really be worth anywhere near $6,000,000,000?  What happens when the competition comes into town like I'm already starting to see?

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#173) On December 04, 2010 at 9:54 PM, PainterPoker (22.56) wrote:

I found a company online that is doing turn-key Groupon like knockoffs- http://www.dealcurrent.com/  They have already churned out 18 daily deal sites.

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#174) On December 05, 2010 at 10:34 AM, caidencollett07 (29.04) wrote:

Thanks again, for another great blog!!  What is your Top 5 list of stocks right now?  Last time I bought into to some of your top 5 (NTWK and MCZ) picks I certaintly made some $$$; Thanks and keep up the good work!!!

What do you think of WG,  bought in recently @ 7.30?

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#175) On December 05, 2010 at 2:44 PM, PIGMA (27.95) wrote:

UL,

 Do you have a favorite Oil & Gas play right now?

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#176) On December 05, 2010 at 9:38 PM, Bloodgarth (< 20) wrote:

Hey UL,

 How do you feel about CDCS?

 

BTW, thanks for your responses.

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#177) On December 06, 2010 at 11:34 AM, BCmfaherty (< 20) wrote:

hi Ultra,

 

  Do you have any new cheap, speculative plays for 2011 (ala MCZ, VLNC, ALIF for 2010)?  Thanks!

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#178) On December 06, 2010 at 12:28 PM, JimBobbly (20.10) wrote:

UL,

 Thanks for your response, yeah i think APWR have very poor management too, I don't trust Mr Lu. Going to hold anyway as I can't see them taking much more of a hammering, at least until the next earnings report fiasco. 

 Anyway if I may have seconds, what do you think of KAZ so far. I snapped this one up a few months back after again this stock came to my attention from one of your blogs (ty btw), so far this stock is doing nicely as you predicted but going forward. Possible pull back on the horizon?

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#179) On December 06, 2010 at 8:49 PM, jlanganki (24.36) wrote:

Jumping on Bloodgarth's comment, the lawsuit against CDC Software looks like a total joke.  Sunshine Mills won a $61 million lawsuit because they didn't like the software they bought from CDC Software for $235,000.  None of the other customers of the same product have any problem either.  This is a jury run amock.  The appeals system will take care of this.  I call this a buying opportunity (but your better off owning CDC Corporation which owns 85% of CDC Software, plus several other "free" companies when you calculate the valuations of the independent parts).

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#180) On December 06, 2010 at 11:04 PM, dandles2020 (36.62) wrote:

Ultralong:

I'm so mad I haven't gotten in on Blunt Man earlier this time around.  I have questions about several stocks, and will make separate posts.

What do you think of TAT, Transatlantic Petroleum.  I thought it was interesting, Malone Mitchell is putting up wells in Turkey, and seems to bring a lot of knowledge to the company ... but what I want are your thoughts.

Thanks! 

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#181) On December 06, 2010 at 11:09 PM, dandles2020 (36.62) wrote:

Next question:  What are your current thoughts on FHCO?  

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#182) On December 06, 2010 at 11:11 PM, dandles2020 (36.62) wrote:

You've said MCZ should trade in the .8 to 1.2 range.  Would you still say its a good buy in that price range?  

Thanks, thanks and thanks. 

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#183) On December 06, 2010 at 11:12 PM, dandles2020 (36.62) wrote:

Just a suggestions, MF should provide you with a paypal link so we can make a donation out of gratitude.  I'm happy to keep asking questions, though.

When will this edition end? 

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#184) On December 07, 2010 at 1:09 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Jawa157,

#121 - Yes... a thousand times yes... if you want to own a miner buy Thompson Creek Metals....have I not been beating down the door on this company long enough?

TMFUltraLong

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#185) On December 07, 2010 at 1:13 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

MagnmInvestor,

#122 - China Integrated Energy is another one of those companies that is growing quickly, is fine from a financial perspective, but is in that 100M-500M range which is the firezone for Chinese equities right now. I'm not sold on it and think technically it has some downside potential. $5.20-$5.50 doesn't seem like a stretch if you ask me.

TMFUltraLong

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#186) On December 07, 2010 at 1:16 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

lemoneater,

#139 - Good, because NHI is getting towards the upper end of the range I could see it trading it.

TMFUltraLong

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#187) On December 07, 2010 at 1:18 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Turfscape,

#140 - Depends on whether you're looking at this from a financial standpoint or a taste standpoint. Tim Hortons for investment purposes, but I could live off of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts based on taste....unfortunately they couldn't manage their way out of a paper bag.

TMFUltraLong

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#188) On December 07, 2010 at 1:20 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

darroj,

#141 - Everything connected to the shipping industry is evil right now and I still wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. I'm sure my friend in Texas wouldn't be too pleased to hear me saying this because it's his largest holding, but I think estimates could fall much further and I don't like what I'm seeing technically either. It's best to avoid this situation.

TMFUltraLong

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#189) On December 07, 2010 at 1:23 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

option1307,

#142 - Artificial Life is my single strongest buy right now.. if that doesn't tell you my personal opinion, I don't know what does.

Disclosure... I do not own any shares but I'll make sure to disclose when/if I make a purchase.

TMFUltraLong

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#190) On December 07, 2010 at 1:26 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

darroj,

#143 - Sutor Technology.. I remember tackling this one a few months back and I feel the same then as a I do now. I like the steel industry, there's just something about Sutor that I don't like, I just can't peg it. I don't know if it's their lack of transparency but I can think of other steel plays I'd prefer....I might be coming out with an article soon on this so you'll just have to wait for further info on that =)

TMFUltraLong

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#191) On December 07, 2010 at 1:28 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Schneezy,

#144 - See, this is why I hate biotech stocks in general. Biotechs trade based on the future expectations of drugs that sometimes aren't even approved yet. Everyone thinks their lupus drug has 2 billion dollar potential and that Human Genome will be purchased. Me, I see a company that will be cranking out losses well into 2012 and that just doesn't fly with me. Instrinsic value to me is about $10-$11.

TMFUltraLong

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#192) On December 07, 2010 at 1:33 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PaxtorReborn,

#145 - I generally don't follow Canadian issues so given a very (and I can't emphasize that enough) very quick glance, I'd say that this company is almost clicking too well for my liking. Given the problems we're seeing in the US & Europe I can't see how that won't eventually effect the Canadian markets. I'd be using this time to edge out of Home Capital if I owned it.

TMFUltraLong

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#193) On December 07, 2010 at 1:35 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Turfscape:

#146 - Homer says that buying a Chrysler will make your wallet very sad....

TMFUltraLong

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#194) On December 07, 2010 at 1:39 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

chintucool,

#147 - Nooooooooo to China North East Petroleum... they don't know how to follow simple rules like, tell us how many glasses of lemonade you sold every 90 days. That was one of the longest halts I have ever witnessed and for that reason I'd not go near this with a ten foot pole. Plenty of other oil plays out there.

TMFUltraLong

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#195) On December 07, 2010 at 1:42 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

chintucool,

#148 - Onto Longwei Petroleum... definitely this looks like the better play of the two you have above. I think you need to tread lightly around these small Chinese energy plays but so far LPH has given no indications of any letdown in growth or its business practices.

TMFUltraLong

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#196) On December 07, 2010 at 1:47 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

rexlove,

#149 - Yeah CNInsure definitely took the brunt of the short end of the stick for no particular reason. From a technical perspective I think the downside is limited to the $14 range so a play here makes some sense to me. Tons of cash on the books, growth is going along as planned share buybacks galore. It gets a moderate nod of approval from me.

TMFUltraLong

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#197) On December 07, 2010 at 1:49 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

#150- Taser's management has done a terrible job of maximizing value for their company. They do continue to crank out profits, but really they haven't had solidly consistent organic growth for years now. I'm starting to think that unless they get bought out or we have another national disaster, Taser is pretty much rangebound.

TMFUltraLong

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#198) On December 07, 2010 at 1:55 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

chaimyl,

#151- All of those pretty much sum up my type of trading. I absolutely loathe momentum traders...they tick me off to no end. I am a firm believer that everything balances out. Though the stock market has no probability factors etched into it, I believe a company that rises 7 days in a row has a stronger probability of falling than one up 2 days in a row. I don't like momo traders and if you've noticed nearly ALL of my shorts are against momo trades.

I do use technicals pretty consistently in my trades in order to aid in entry and exit points, but I like to stick to basic patterns, nothing too fancy.

I'm not much of a sector trader because there usually are 1 or 2 companies within that sector that stick out as the clear trades. On a personal basis I don't trade very many ETF's if at all.

I've traded options for a while but I can't say I've consitently made money on them. I'm not as versed in options strategies as you might think and stick to relatively basic calls & puts. I think my downfall is I really enjoy taking my risks in the options market and thats the last place you want to take your wildest gambles.

TMFUltraLong

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#199) On December 07, 2010 at 1:57 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Nostrademous,

#153 - I just can't bring myself to bet agaist Baidu. Them and Google have too much clout and cash for me to bet against them. Their P/e could go to 200 and I still wouldn't have the cajones to bet against them.

TMFUltraLong

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#200) On December 07, 2010 at 2:00 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

truleuneek,

# 154 - The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to take home the big prize again this year, and I'll be looking for the Orlando Magic to capture the championship in the NBA.

TMFUltraLong

PS. $20 for charity and counting

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#201) On December 07, 2010 at 2:19 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

rebello15,

#155 & 156 - Since you were so emphatically wanting to know about the steel industry that you posted it twice, all I can say is you'll just have to wait until an article I'm working on comes out...can't really comment on the steel industry in general. Should be out within the next week.

TMFUltraLong

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#202) On December 07, 2010 at 2:23 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Jawa157,

#157 - Now that's just weird... comment 157 for Jawa157...eerie

Cypress has done absolutely nothing since it spun off SunPower until the last four months. I've seen a move like this out of Cypress before and you know what I've learned...you sell into it. Cypress has a strong balance sheet but this growth rate isn't going to last. You buy Cypress in the mid single digits and you sell it in the low to mid double digits.

TMFUltraLong

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#203) On December 07, 2010 at 2:26 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

kewlness,

#158 - Cryolife is a brutally unexciting company from a financial perspective with a compounded growth rate of about 5% *snore*... but they trade at 1.3 times book and 1.1 times enterprise value and have $1+ in net cash. That's a formula for a buyout sometime in the next 5 years if you ask me, but that's just speculation of course. CRY is worth about $8.50 in my book.

TMFUltraLong

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#204) On December 07, 2010 at 2:29 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

fmahnke,

#166 - I shook the magic eight ball and it told me that a fair valuation for SuperValu is $12.25 but it could bounce a bit lower before it finds that perfect valuation.

TMFUltraLong

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#205) On December 07, 2010 at 2:32 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Morijo,

#167 - Terra Nova Royalty is that company that someone always asks about that I am 100% ho-hum about. I see good things like their cash balance, I see bad things like their business inconsistencies, and I just feel like sitting on the sidelines with my hands in my pockets waiting to see what happens but I never want to play the game.

TMFUltraLong

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#206) On December 07, 2010 at 2:35 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

TMFBabo,

#168 - I've been waiting for natural gas to move higher for a while now... my jaw nearly dropped when I saw it below $3 a few months back. The problem is that outside of futures contracts, there are really no ways to play natural gas. GAZ is a terrible idea and none of the natty gas producers really move in tandem with the underlying product. I also see Natural gas as a $3.75-$5.50 product and look for it trade within that range. It loves to rally in the winter so look for that move to continue higher. The historical trend is to buy natty gas in Aug-Sept and sell out in Jan-Feb.

TMFUltraLong

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#207) On December 07, 2010 at 2:40 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

deltafox2,

#169 - PDL Biopharma was on my buy list up to even a few months ago thanks to their healthy cash position, but once you remove their Facet Biotech spinoff you realize they can't do a darn thing right. They're costs are a problem and I see expenses rising moving forward...making those forward estimates unreliable to me. I see this trading around $5 which makes this a poor buy if you ask me.

TMFUltraLong

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#208) On December 07, 2010 at 9:01 AM, fmahnke (88.19) wrote:

Thanks,

What do you think about Teva ?

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#209) On December 07, 2010 at 10:13 AM, Nostrademous (< 20) wrote:

What do you think are the prospects for LimeLight Networks (LLNW) when competing with AKAM and LVLT with respect to network delivery services over the next 6-12 months?

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#210) On December 07, 2010 at 10:27 AM, metoo105 (28.77) wrote:

Do you care to comment on the arrogance that one can acquire by becoming the top of the leader board on CAPS and how that arrogance can FOOLISHLY lead one to proffer opinions on matters outside of one's areas competence on a fake column called "Ask a Blunt Man"? Who do you think you are anyway, Kramer?

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#211) On December 07, 2010 at 11:11 AM, JimBobbly (20.10) wrote:

Someones jelious! Mr No Recs.

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#212) On December 07, 2010 at 12:54 PM, chintucool (< 20) wrote:

ultra bro, 

which is the best OIL stock for greedy investor like me? risk -reward in balance.

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#213) On December 07, 2010 at 2:44 PM, IgnoreTheCrowd (< 20) wrote:

Your thoughts on NE for long term?

Thanks.

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#214) On December 07, 2010 at 7:28 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

Thanks for the comment on Tasr, shoulda, woulda, coulda sold at $7 : (

Can you give your thoughts on CBOE, I plan on holding minimum 5 years.

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#215) On December 07, 2010 at 8:53 PM, TheDumbMoney (58.51) wrote:

ABAT

Keeping in mind http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?symbol=ABAT.OQ

I'm not a buyer right now, and it's one of those volatile little China companies.  Still, seems intriguing to me, though I don't know a ton about it.

Thanks.

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#216) On December 08, 2010 at 12:33 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

GST - one thing I never do - is push 1/2 of my P/F all in. After todays stock offering "which I knew was coming" I want to push it in. Just like I did with LVS, LNG etc. I've already made nice returns on LNG & IRE (short term) = I'm ready for the risk. (why am I asking you) not sure..I"ve done the DD and am ready to pull the trigger on GST now.

A broker friend has frozen nuts about the thought = he has no balls.

Balls or nuggets in cold water - what's your thoughts

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#217) On December 08, 2010 at 12:40 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

I didn't push half, but, darn near it - for the record and it paid $

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#218) On December 08, 2010 at 2:45 AM, JestYourFool (< 20) wrote:

PS... is it wrong to have eaten a turkey dinner 5 straight nights? (November 30, 2010)

Only if you're a turkey! :)

Jest

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#219) On December 08, 2010 at 6:19 AM, Nostrademous (< 20) wrote:

Here is one for fun since you "love" penny stocks. What do you think of the future of Liquidmetal Technologies (LQMT)? Sometime back in April it was announced that Apple has selected them for use in the Apple iPhone 5's antenna and their stock went up somewhere in the range of 800% over a matter of a couple of weeks. Since then it has been slowly declining back to its original price, but I can only speculate that as 2011 roles in and the iPhone 5 comes closer to release the stock should start surging up again as interest in the company grows. Thoughts?

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#220) On December 08, 2010 at 10:21 AM, Jawa157 (< 20) wrote:

TMFUltraLong,

What are your thoughts on GST falling under 4.50, big drop in the last two days. Im currently long GST.

Thanks for all the info on the other stocks,  Im currently long TC and CY, but am going to go back and take a look at cypress again after your comments. 

Jawa157

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#221) On December 08, 2010 at 12:41 PM, mneipert (97.05) wrote:

SNGX ?

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#222) On December 08, 2010 at 10:19 PM, JenkemLover (36.35) wrote:

Great call on AXTI, what are your thoughts on the current price and potential future of the company?

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#223) On December 09, 2010 at 8:28 AM, directd (48.99) wrote:

PRXI - smooth sailing or iceberg right ahead?

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#224) On December 09, 2010 at 10:51 AM, Bethamphetamine (< 20) wrote:

Congratulations Ultralong!  Any thoughts about BABY?

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#225) On December 09, 2010 at 12:15 PM, MagnmInvestor (< 20) wrote:

What do u think about CHRS?  Also r u as optimistic as Goldman in next years S&P move up to 1450?  Thanks!

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#226) On December 09, 2010 at 3:26 PM, rosemanjhk (34.21) wrote:

Ultra -

     Currently at 3X up with MCZ, and it is looking like a sell to me at $1.00 or so, based on what you are saying for my purposes (take the $$ and run).  I have been pushing TC as well, told all my friend to buy at $ 8.75, and they did not listen, and are now regretting it! 

Made a killing (pardon the pun) with STON - do you think it has room to continue its run up, or is it a sell in the low $30 range?

 

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#227) On December 09, 2010 at 6:33 PM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

Ultralong,

What's your favorite foreign stock listed only on the pink sheets (or foreign exchanges)? 

It looks like you have never put a green thumb on a foreign company not on the major US exchanges.  But you must have an opinion, after all you have an opinion on everything.

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#228) On December 09, 2010 at 7:29 PM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

#216, #220

Given that GST is trading at 9.6x sales and has pretty high capex requirements, I'm not convinced of the risk-reward.  They have to hit homeruns to be a successful investment, while majors like CVX or TOT (trading at very cheap multiples) only have to hit singles.

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#229) On December 09, 2010 at 11:59 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

#228

Print off section maps and plot the producers and identify the lease positions held by the players that are available. Note the reported IBP's as these wells are drilled. Get to the basics and ignore all the he said she said B.S. This is one case where fundamental trumps technical in the short to intermediate term.... not just the long term. It appreas to me their dramatically undervalued even at seemingly astronomical Future PE's. The value of the lease positions (per share outstanding) alone is worth the ride.

So, TMFUL what's your take?

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#230) On December 10, 2010 at 2:38 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

I'll do my best to work on answering some questions late tomorrow night... I sort of warned most of you that I have just a fraction of the free time that I used to have but I will eventually get to these questions. $23 for charity and counting.

TMFUltraLong

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#231) On December 10, 2010 at 1:02 PM, truleuneek (< 20) wrote:

Thoughts about VALE?

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#232) On December 10, 2010 at 1:09 PM, clutch410 (< 20) wrote:

UL,

 

How do you feel about Bank of America?  I missed the huge upswing from $2 do you feel we could see another upswing from the current $12 price?

 

Thanks!

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#233) On December 10, 2010 at 1:22 PM, chintucool (< 20) wrote:

Ultra Bro,

 

I am down 65% on WH. Will it ever be back to $3 or should i sell and take the loss.

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#234) On December 10, 2010 at 1:23 PM, chintucool (< 20) wrote:

Any thoughts about CXPO?

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#235) On December 10, 2010 at 7:50 PM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Dear UL, 

Thank you for your advice.  I sold most of my china small caps stocks and added to my cash position and NIV position.   I feel like NIV is a pretty safe bet because they recently completed a new production facility and living facility (which they needed real money to pay for) and are hiring people (which they wouldn't do if they weren't growing or have a demand for).  I also have a smaller position in ALIF.OB which you also recommended.  I have free'd up about 2,000 dollars about 20 percent of my profolio.  I was debating whether or not to take a risk and double my NIV position, add to my alif.ob position, save the cash or can you recommend a stock they offers as high reward v risk as NIV or ALIF.OB.    

Thanks for your time. 

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#236) On December 11, 2010 at 5:09 PM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

I like NIV because they recently spent money building new production and living facilities and were hiring new people during the last quarter. Why would a company spend money on a new facility and hiring people if they were not growing? How can a company afford to do this if they are not profitable? The recent attack on companies in china and NIVs margins are keeping this stock down. NIVs margins are low but their earnings are consistent and revenue is growing. They are trying to market their own brand and if they can do that I hope their margins and earnings will increase. This is just a theory but one that I think makes sense.

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#237) On December 11, 2010 at 5:29 PM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Dear UL,  It sounds like you don't like any shippers?  I own NM and EXM, and I am always keeping an eye on DSX to see when or if they will re-instate a dividend.  EXM is 5.85 per share.  It looks like they earned 4.30 in 07, lost 1.60 in 08, made 5.50 in 09 and made 2.40 so far in 2010 even though their estimate was 0.44 for 2010.  In other words, It looks like they made about 10 dollars per share between 2007 and now and their book value is 21 dollars.  So why do they only have a dollar in cash on their balance sheet? Is EXM a buy or a sell in your book?

 Thanks in advance.

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#238) On December 11, 2010 at 5:30 PM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Is NM a buy or a sell?

Also if you every start your own hedge fund or stock advisory service  let me know. 

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#239) On December 11, 2010 at 6:40 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

The problem is that outside of futures contracts, there are really no ways to play natural gas.

I'd say the best way is a low-cost producer trading at a big enough discount to 1P reserves.  That way, they're profitable at low gas and can ramp up later.  

 

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#240) On December 11, 2010 at 8:46 PM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

TMFBabo,

Post #239.  Hard to argue with your comment.  Being profitable at low NatGas prices offers the downside and higher NG prices for the upside.  Do you mind sharing your current favorites?

GnV

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#241) On December 12, 2010 at 11:19 AM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

NTE

Is it a stay away or heading north?

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#242) On December 12, 2010 at 12:20 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Sorry folks, you'll get another delay again. This year has been particularly brutal for me. My grandfather passed away yesterday so I'll be heading back to NY for the services for most of the week. I will get to these questions so don't be discouraged but admittedly it will be a few more days yet again before I do.

TMFUltraLong

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#243) On December 12, 2010 at 1:36 PM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Dear UL,

I'm sorry for you loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

Dave  

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#244) On December 12, 2010 at 10:53 PM, MethodologyTest (21.39) wrote:

My deepest condolences, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.  

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#245) On December 13, 2010 at 9:21 AM, GrowthnValue (< 20) wrote:

UL,

Sorry for your loss.

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#246) On December 13, 2010 at 11:03 AM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Sorry to hear for your loss UL, hang in there man!

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#247) On December 13, 2010 at 4:18 PM, mroc237 (21.41) wrote:

UL,

 Have you heard of a company called American Surgery Holdings Group (ASRG)? They are a small company, providing surgical assistants but for a penny stock the financials look amazing. Not only are they generating revenue but they are profitable and just announced a dividend for second consecutive quarter.

I just wrote a post about them below, can you check it out? I've just never heard of a penny stock paying any dividend, let alone for a 44% yield!

 http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/penny-stock-dividend-44/488913

 

Thanks!

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#248) On December 14, 2010 at 11:19 AM, Bethamphetamine (< 20) wrote:

Best wishes to you and your family - I'm truly sorry for your loss.

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#249) On December 14, 2010 at 3:08 PM, guiseppewv (< 20) wrote:

Condolences to you and your family.  I am sorry for your loss.

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#250) On December 14, 2010 at 4:33 PM, kewlness (95.89) wrote:

Christmas is a rough time to lose a loved one. My deepest condolences to you and your family.

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#251) On December 14, 2010 at 5:39 PM, dandles2020 (36.62) wrote:

My condolences.

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#252) On December 15, 2010 at 3:01 PM, akaprimo (83.88) wrote:

As others have said, I am sorry for your loss.

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#253) On December 16, 2010 at 9:36 PM, UULH (< 20) wrote:

Hi Ultralong, sorry for your loss. 

I would like your opinion on TNDM. Since you recommended, it went down on fear of continued price erosion and the patent litigation from Peerless. However, TNDM has announced stock buy back, 3 insiders made significant purchases, announced partnership with Telx for Ethernet exchange (EX) and customers, acquired Tinet to boost global presence & customers for EX and IP, and also to expand intl voice exchange. They're also expanding operation locations (POPs) linearly for both voice and EX. From last conference call, voice exchange price erosion seemed to have slowed down, didn't loose any customers of voice exchange. Continue to pile cash. Overall I feel very this will be a solid long term growth (as oppose to the tranditional explosive small cap style). Your thoughts please and thank you. 

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#254) On December 19, 2010 at 8:03 AM, JimBobbly (20.10) wrote:

UL,

 My deepest condolences to you and your family.

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#255) On December 22, 2010 at 1:54 AM, zCreator (95.18) wrote:

I'm sorry to hear that. My condelences.

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#256) On December 22, 2010 at 2:27 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

UL, I'm truly saddened by this news, after what you just went through with your Mom this is terrible news. My heart goes out to you.

Keep your spirits up my freind

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#257) On December 31, 2010 at 12:48 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

MethodologyTest,

#170 - Ok, so nearly four weeks later I have an answer for you.... hindsight tells me that no, Magic Software isn't going to be getting anywhere near $4.80 this month, nor do I really care for the company in general. It decided to dilute shareholders with a secondary, a move very typical of a company who feels its own shares aren't worth what the market is valuing them at. It's one I'd avoid.

TMFUltraLong

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#258) On December 31, 2010 at 12:50 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PainterPoker,

#171 - The joys of the CAPS rating system amazes me. Sometimes it can be incredibly accurate and other times I can be amazed what winds up as a 5-star company.

TMFUltraLong

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#259) On December 31, 2010 at 12:53 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PainterPoker,

#172 - The valuations that analysts make up for non-public companies can seem pretty outrageous at times. I heard someone claim facebook is worth about $57 billion the other day and nearly fell out of my chair. I'm not even going to speculate about Groupon unless it becomes a public entity.

TMFUltraLong

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#260) On December 31, 2010 at 12:54 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PainterPoker,

#173 - Again, not even going to speculate on the future of something which isn't public yet.

TMFUltraLong

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#261) On December 31, 2010 at 12:59 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

caidencollett07,

#174 - I don't really have a top 5 list per se, but I did post a CAPS blog mentioning 3 or 4 top specualtive plays for 2010 and today's headline at the Fool was for our best stock of 2010 and my choice was Thompson Creek Metals. So technically... there are 5 I like.

WillBros Group looks fairly inexpensive on paper, what worries me is they'll somehow miss earnings expectations again and I'd suspect thats why they're trading so cheaply. Their business should pick up but they're trading like another miss is coming.

TMFUltraLong

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#262) On December 31, 2010 at 1:02 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

PIGMA,

#175 - Since you didn't specify where in the oil & gas sector it had to be, I'm going with Conoco Phillips which is somehow always undervalued despite a very delectable dividend. Oil is on the move higher and it is almost always worth owning.

TMFUltraLong

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#263) On December 31, 2010 at 1:06 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Bloodgarth,

#176 - CDC Software is dirt cheap, but there's just too much uncertainty which Chinese small caps to give this company any sustainable run. Eventually someone is going to realize how absurdly cheap the stock is and it's going to run wild, I just don't know when that might be. They have nearly $1 in net cash and trade at something like 5-6 times future earnings.

TMFUltraLong

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#264) On December 31, 2010 at 1:09 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

BCmfaherty,

#177 - I posted my three speculative plays on my CAPS blog a few days ago, feel free to go check it out.

TMFUltraLong

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#265) On December 31, 2010 at 1:11 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

JimBobbly.

#178 - I like BMB Munai, don't get me wrong, but once I had seen the move back to $1 I thought it was time to back off. They have had serious cash flow problems despite being profitable and their debt covenants are to blame. There is too much governmental and debt risk for me to really want to stick around and see what happens.

TMFUltraLong

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#266) On December 31, 2010 at 1:13 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

jlanganki,

#179 - Yeah, much like I said above, Chinese equities are not in good light right now. Eventually these solid numbers will earn CDC a nice run, but I can't really figure out when that time will come.

TMFUltraLong

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#267) On December 31, 2010 at 1:18 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

dandles2020,

#180 - I'm going to simply copy and paste my feelings on Transatlantic Petroleum from the 24-hour Live Chat.

Just like biotechs, I have a really hard time valuing drillers like TransAtlantic Petroleum that are sitting on oil but have only recently begun to siphon it out of the ground. Almost always it seems like analyst's overestimate how profitable these new drillers will be and not surprisingly we've seen profit estimates for 2011 fall considerably since September.

I'd be willing to place it on the watch list to see how it progresses, but until TAT is turning a profit, 100%+ revenue growth is just smoke & mirrors.

TMFUltraLong

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#268) On December 31, 2010 at 1:22 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

dandles2020,

#181 - Just like before I'm going to copy and paste what I discussed on Female Health Co. from the 24-hour live chat.

I picked Female Health in the UltraLong portfolio before and it may wind up in there again. First however, FHCO needs to prove that it can integrate its second generation condom products without the nasty revenue decline we saw last year. They are more than capable of producing at a high level and crank out a 3.5% dividend so they remain on my watch list, but I want to see some consistency with their newer product first.

TMFUltraLong

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#269) On December 31, 2010 at 1:24 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

dandles2020,

#182 - Again, I'm going to do a little cutting and pasting from the 24-hour live chat.

Mad Catz is approaching a valuation that makes me feel it is valued appropriately. I've been pounding the table on Mad Catz for months but haven't mentioned it too much lately. It still should benefit from a solid Christmas quarter and could come out of this season smelling like a rose with a trailing P/e around 7. I'm going to be curious to see it's results, that's for sure.

TMFUltraLong

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#270) On December 31, 2010 at 1:26 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

dandles2020,

#183 - I don't need any donations, but if you'd like to make a personal donation to the Thurgood Marshall fund I'm sure we could get you in touch with someone so you'd know where to send the check.

TMFUltraLong

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#271) On December 31, 2010 at 3:54 AM, rancidx3 (38.92) wrote:

Thank you for all your contributions I really appreciate it

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#272) On December 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.60) wrote:

Not a question really,

Just wanted to give props on Motley Animals rise from worst to first.

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#273) On January 03, 2011 at 8:52 PM, rosemanjhk (34.21) wrote:

I am SOOOO glad to see we think alike with TC - what are your thoughts on today's buyout rumours and the huge increase?  And Mad Catz went nuts today too!  Time to sell on the later?  Glad your back!

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#274) On January 03, 2011 at 9:01 PM, yhyhg wrote:

welcome come to :
(http://tinyurl.com/2c7p8hm
http://tinyurl.com/2c7p8hm
http://tinyurl.com/2c7p8hm
http://tinyurl.com/2c7p8hm)

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#275) On January 04, 2011 at 3:10 PM, gspchamp999 (27.40) wrote:

Hey UL,

 How do you like LIME?

I see a lot of insider purchases over the last month.

Thanks. 

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#276) On January 07, 2011 at 11:52 AM, woodszilla2010 (< 20) wrote:

Not sure if you are still checking this blog... but I was wondering what you think about ALIF.OB 's latest moves.

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#277) On May 28, 2011 at 8:18 PM, MegaEurope (< 20) wrote:

#228 I'd like to take credit for not liking GST at $4.70.

At $3.40 it's looking a lot more attractive.

#275 LIME is LAME.  They've been around for 31 years and they still can't turn a profit.

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