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uclayoda87 (29.35)

At World’s End

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21

January 18, 2010 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: TCK , TGB , FCX

I have been at a loss for good investment themes for 2010.  I agree with many who believe that this year will test your stock picking ability.  In 2009 you just needed courage and conviction to buy when the WSJ said the Dow was going to 5000 and the S&P was going to 500 (Front page in March 2009).  The only theme that I have retained from 2009 is that there may be more TCK and TGB type companies in Canada, which are waiting to be discovered by Asian money.  Beyond that, picking big dividend producing stocks in place of bonds or buying into foreign markets now, while the US dollar is enjoying its recent revival may seem like reasonable ideas.  The problem is that the market doesn’t feel cheap anymore.  Apple is not at $85, BAC is not at $4.00 and FCX is not at $17 and that is not even considering the 10 baggers like TCK.  As in the Pirate movie, navigating in the cold waters of the north, I feel that I have lost my sense of direction with regard to the markets.  The question about going over a waterfall is still up in the air, but that is only one scenario of many.  Binve had a nice analysis of relative risk, but it eventually comes down to what you really believe in and how certain you are with your ability to get it right.  Friday’s sell off before the long weekend suggested to me that many investors are sailing these cold waters and feel equally ambivalent about the markets.  In this type of environment, can a sustained rise in the market continue?  Politics and world event are unlikely to calm just so that the markets can continue to rise, but world’s end is closer than it was in March but only because the end is always in the future and March is in the past.  So I have resigned myself to watch a Pirate movie at home and save my money for the day when down is up and true skies appear.

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 18, 2010 at 2:49 AM, Jimson09 (< 20) wrote:


 It really takes a very courageous investor to invest in a stock market knowing that we have every weak economy, thee no actual assurance that what we had invested will really make a very remarkable return. One has to wonder if any of these bailout programs did any good.  Thus far, the evidence is against it.  For instance – Make Home Affordable, the government aid program for homeowners with troubled mortgages along with some other government aid programs to help stem the tide of foreclosures.  The Mortgage Banker's Association has reported that one in seven mortgages is in foreclosure, though to be fair, that probably has more to do with the unemployment rate, rather than anything else – you can't save a mortgage with payday loans, and no one can pay off a mortgage without a job.

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#2) On January 18, 2010 at 4:13 AM, uclayoda87 (29.35) wrote:

Jimson09

Investing in US companies that rely on US consumers is not easy, although tech companies like Apple can seem to make a profit in even the worst of environments.  Government interventions will distort the market in the short-term, but it is unlikely that they will stumble upon an effective program before the adverse effects of their currrent interventions take hold.  My guess is that it is safer to be in cash or metals than to put new money in the market at this time.  I'm waiting for at least a 20+% sell off in the market between now and April before I would make any significant stock investments.  If that doesn't happen, I will likely add to my CEF position.

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#3) On January 27, 2010 at 1:34 AM, SamTheHobbit (30.08) wrote:

I think you are calling a Top wihtout calling a Top.  The title of the Blog and the reference to the ship going over the water fall into Davey Jones Locker both suggest that you are calling a Top.  Plus your last comment that you are waiting for a 20% fall between now and April didn't suggest you think there is any short term up side from here.  So if you don't think we are going much higher and you are looking for a bear market size correction, then you must think we are at the top.  Right?

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#4) On January 27, 2010 at 2:54 AM, uclayoda87 (29.35) wrote:

SamTheHobbit

Right, but too many smart Bears have been gored by irrational Bulls for making this direct statement, so I chose to float the idea that we are closer to a World's End experience than many optimistic Bulls might believe.  With this uncertainty, is it time to buy on the way down or wait for some sign of a bottom?  It all depends on whether you believe that this is another one of those short one to two week sell offs or the beginning of a big 2008 type market crash.  Quoting from another movie, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade:  "Choose wisely, for as the true cup will give you everlasting life, the false cup will drain it from you".

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#5) On January 27, 2010 at 10:39 AM, uclayoda87 (29.35) wrote:

The Map to World's End.

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