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portefeuille (99.66)

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May 25, 2010 – Comments (137)

I have just added to my ATPG position (at 11.55 USD).

ATPG shares are now my second largest position (the largest are still EMC shares and call options). My average buying price is now around 13 USD.

137 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 25, 2010 at 10:13 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

my largest positions ("top 10").

EMC - EMC shares and call options,
ATPG - ATP Oil & Gas,
DBK:GR (DB) - Deutsche Bank,
DAI:GR (DAI) - Daimler,
Indian equities fund,
Mining fund,
EURO STOXX 50 ETF,
BAS:GR - BASF,
Emerging Markets fund,
HEN3:GR - Henkel.

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#2) On May 25, 2010 at 10:17 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a post with a larger list of my positions (I still have all the positions listed there).

positions

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#3) On May 25, 2010 at 10:24 AM, Option1307 (29.92) wrote:

I like ATPG for the long term a lot, but that chart sure looks ugly right now. Best of luck!

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#4) On May 25, 2010 at 10:51 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

that chart sure looks ugly right now.

 



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#5) On May 25, 2010 at 8:32 PM, TigerPack1 (96.52) wrote:

Bought some ATPG at 11.70 and AIXG at 24.40 in the real world today...  First purchases for both.

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#6) On May 27, 2010 at 1:46 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Current Deepwater Activity (pdf)

(from here)

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#7) On May 27, 2010 at 1:56 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

 

 

 



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(from this recent presentation (pdf))

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#8) On May 27, 2010 at 1:58 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

also see this "board".

http://boards.fool.com/atp-oil-gas-co-atpg-115425.aspx

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#9) On May 27, 2010 at 2:00 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

the presentations.

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#10) On May 27, 2010 at 2:24 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:



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(from this presentation (pdf))

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#11) On May 27, 2010 at 2:30 PM, Momentum22 (29.53) wrote:

What is your take on the risk at Telemark? I bought more since I was in a good mood...

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#12) On May 27, 2010 at 2:33 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

information from slides #7,17 above.

MC 941 #3 (Mirage #3 well) in Q2 2010, 7 Mboe/d,
MC 941 #4 (Mirage #4 well) in Q3 2010, 7 Mboe/d and
MC 942 #2 (Morgus #2 well) in Q4 2010, 7 Mboe/d.

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#13) On May 27, 2010 at 2:38 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

What is your take on the risk at Telemark?

I don't think that is clear right now.

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#14) On May 27, 2010 at 2:41 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#11 Did you mean the Telemark hub, or just the AT 63 part? The AT 63 part should be fine if they don't want to halt "current production". So the lower red circle in that map posted in comment #7 above should be fine, not sure about the upper 3 ones (listed in comment #12 above).

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#15) On May 27, 2010 at 2:49 PM, Momentum22 (29.53) wrote:

So basically we are talking about the Phase 1 wells that you outlined in #12? For risk that is...

...but I guess the statements made today can be interpreted in many ways. EPL is the other "victim" right now... 

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#16) On May 27, 2010 at 2:58 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Yes, those 3 wells listed in comment #12 are the "critical" ones I guess.

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#17) On May 27, 2010 at 3:00 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

In a "worst case" they could accelerate the North Sea project ("Cheviot").

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#18) On May 27, 2010 at 4:08 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) Falls On Obama Plan to Limit Off-Shore Drilling, Analyst Says "Overreaction"

May 27, 2010 2:55 PM EDT

ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (Nasdaq: ATPG) is under heavy pressure today as President Obama announced a halt to drilling operations at 33 deep-water rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

The President is also suspending the sale of leases in the Gulf of Mexico and the proposed sale of leases off Virginia, suspending permits for new deep-water Gulf of Mexico wells for 6 months and suspending planned exploration of two sites off Alaska.

An analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, Curtis Trimble, told StreetInsider.com that ATP Oil & Gas is not on the list of rigs that will be impacted by the halt. However, he said the 6-month moratorium on permits could push back the company's Telemark well into 2011, versus the end of 2010.

Shares are down 6.8% today to $11.68 and down 44% over the last month.

Trimble called today's sell-off an "overreaction." He has a Buy rating and $23 price target on the stock.

NOTE: Natixis Bleichroeder LLC and/or its affiliates make an over-the-counter market in ATPG. Within the last 12 months, Natixis Bleichroeder LLC and/or its affiliates managed or comanaged a public offering of the securities of ATP Oil and Gas.

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#19) On May 27, 2010 at 4:24 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

thanks Porte...since I have a decent position already I sold off my new piece at the close for 4%. 

Today was the day that made all of the anguish pay off...5.18% to the plus not including a some of the sales I made to rebalance (Sprint, AOI and some SSO) ...that's some beta...BPSG, CSR and IKAN with double digit gains.

Only one day though...we need to get back into your "channel" soon...this market is nuts day to day...

: )

 

 

 

 

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#20) On May 28, 2010 at 1:06 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I just added to my ATPG position. ATPG is currently at around 10.77 USD.

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#21) On May 28, 2010 at 10:32 PM, Momentum22 (29.53) wrote:

ATPG has 1 rig affected according to Bloomberg...here

The big question is which one... 

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#22) On May 28, 2010 at 10:41 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

Posted on 05/28/10 at 1:35pm by Michael J. Zerinskas

Shares of ATP Oil & Gas Crop. (NASDAQ: ATPG) are lower on the session by 10.54%, currently trading $10.78. The stock has fallen off a cliff as of late, accelerating today, due to its focus on deepwater drillingdeepwater drilling.

Heavy put buying can be seen on the June $9 put, where 5,636 contracts have been bought on open interestopen interest of 872 contracts, the September $11 put was purchased 1,632 times on open interest of 125 contracts, the December $5 put was purchased 9,975 times on open interest of 54 contracts, and the January 2011 $5 put was purchased 10,306 times on no open interest.

It seems that someone is making a bet on the solvency of this company given that they are reaching for strikes that at 50% below the current share price, which is already off 53.81% from its highs.

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas properties in the Gulf of MexicoGulf of Mexico and the United Kingdom and Dutch Sectors of the North Sea. As of December 31, 2009, the Company owned leaseholdleasehold and other interests in 62 offshore blocks and 104 wells, including 19 subsea wells, in the Gulf of Mexico.

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#23) On May 28, 2010 at 10:43 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

Shares of ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (NASDAQ: ATPG) are in the red out of the gate on Friday without any news from the company, and put volume on the tape suggests at least one option investor expects the downside to continue throughout the longer-term.

By 10:25 a.m. EST, more than 10,000 way-out-of-the-money (OTM) January 2011 5-strike puts changed hands for an average price of 65 cents per contract versus current open interest of zero contracts. This options action indicates investors traded these options to open, and most likely bought them on a bet that ATPG shares could drop at least 57% during the next eight months. A look at time and sales shows the first block of these puts changed hands for 55 cents and the puts have climbed five cents with the stock down on the day, verifying that put buyers are out this morning. The investors who bought the puts will begin to make money at expiration if ATPG shares drop lower than the breakeven price of $4.35.  However, the investor does not have to wait until expiration to make money here, and in fact can turn a profit even if the shares never dip below the 5-strike.  These puts currently have a delta of roughly 10, meaning that for every dollar the stock drops, the options will increase 10 cents.  Divide 10 cents by 65 cents and you get a 15% return on investment for every dollar the stock falls, as long as not much time has passed between today and when the shares decline.

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#24) On May 28, 2010 at 10:52 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

  Be careful Port....  The chart says this stock Is going to test 8 bucks....   A close below 8 could take It to 5.....  I am with you on the company longer term,but the momentum could carry this one down considerably lower In the next three or four months. Just trying to look out for my fellow fools.....   TS

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#25) On May 28, 2010 at 10:56 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

  Their earnings projections for next year were as high as $4.00 per share,these will be revised downward In the near term....   But nonetheless could create an excellent buying opportunity for the long haul...   TS

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#26) On May 28, 2010 at 11:12 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

At worst, it appears one rig will be impacted and that one very well could be 100% NG...which would have minimal impact to the numbers I think. The "technical damage" is definitely a short-term issue but I wouldn't want to be sitting short on this one over a long weekend.  

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#27) On May 29, 2010 at 12:26 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

It is my second largest position by now. I might add a few shares on Monday in German trading. ATPG shares still make up less than 10% of my portfolio. Not enough, hehe ...

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#28) On May 29, 2010 at 12:31 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I think I will finally sell some Henkel shares.

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#29) On May 29, 2010 at 12:36 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Offshore moratorium won't affect Gulf wells already producing oil

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#30) On May 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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Interior sets list for Gulf drilling halt

28 May 2010 20:40 GMT

The operation “may take a few days,” an Interior representative told UpstreamOnline, and deep-water operators are not required to stop their rigs until they receive a notice.

“The safety repot recommended these actions; the president accepted the recommendations and directed the secretary to order them; Interior is in the process of implementing those orders,” Interior spokesman Frank Quimby said in an email response to questions.

“The companies are correct that they should not act on the basis of the report or release.”

Some operators had reportedly already begin to shut down but others told UpstreamOnline that they had received no official word to halt and did not plan to do so until they received a written order.

The orders will ask operators to cease drilling “at the first safe stopping point.”

Quimby said further clarification of what was a "safe stopping point" will be included in the notices to stop drilling.

The list of operators affected by the stoppage (which does not included project names) generally lines up with the Minerals Management Service current report of deep-water activity with the notable exception of three companies Stone Energy, Murphy Exploration and Production and ExxonMobil.

According to the MMS data, Stone is working on its Amberjack prospect, while Murphy is working on its Front Runner prospect and ExxonMobil is drilling at Hoover.

Quimby said he did not know why the three are not on the list but industry sources say they believe that MMS has exempted wells drilled from fixed platforms and have surface BOPs.

...

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Top tension riser systems developed for ATP’s Telemark Hub

Posted on 11 May 2010

ATP Oil and Gas’ Telemark Hub in the Gulf of Mexico is being developed with a new deep draft floating production system, a triangular design with columns that provides the motion characteristics of a spar but with the wave transparency of a semisubmersible. The top tension riser system was developed for drilling risers and production risers with dry trees and includes standard riser joints, specialty joints and an innovative riser tensioning system. “The robust mooring of the Telemark Hub is suitable for dry trees,” said David L Garrett with Stress Engineering Services.

The single barrier drilling risers have a surface BOP (SBOP) and a subsea isolation device (SID) to provide emergency shut-off in case of a breach or failure of the drilling riser. The SID consists of two 18 ¾-in. blind/shear rams and is operated from the surface.

...

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#31) On May 30, 2010 at 12:39 AM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

MC305 is probably the one that will be delayed since MC941 is actually completed...and Ocean Confidence is the NG rig I believe...so Telemark impact doesn't seem likely at the moment. 

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#32) On May 30, 2010 at 12:55 AM, topsecret09 (38.18) wrote:

   It's all about momentum right now with this stock. And right now,It does not take much negative news to send Investors scurrying for the exits. I think patience will pay off on this one. I agree that this company Is a solid long term hold,I just think that you will be able to hold It at a cheaper price.....  I am watching this stock closely,especially with my solid cash reserves. I will be a buyer at some point....   TS

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#33) On May 30, 2010 at 11:19 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have done some more ATPG related reading lately. My plan is to make this a "10% to 15%" position next week and then let the stock prices decide how much of my portfolio it will make up after that ...

I will add some call options as well, probably some "2011 and 2012 $15 to $20" ones. I might sell a few Henkel, Daimler, EMC shares, not sure yet.

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#34) On May 30, 2010 at 11:34 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATPG.



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Henkel in Frankfurt trading.



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Daimler in Frankfurt trading. 



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EMC.



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#35) On May 30, 2010 at 11:46 AM, TMFRhino (98.34) wrote:

Hey Port,

You have another thread explaining your logic for EMC being a top holding? Is this any kind of pairs trade with VMW?

Best,

Eric

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#36) On May 30, 2010 at 12:05 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

It is one part of a "pairs trade". I have skipped the second part (the short VMW part).

I have written a rather useless post on EMC here. My EMC "pitch" is here.

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#37) On May 30, 2010 at 6:51 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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EMC: Caris Upgrades; Says The Stock Is Too Cheap To Ignore

EMC (EMC) shares are getting a boost this morning from Caris analyst Robert Cihra, who upgraded the storage hardware company’s stock to Buy from Average, with a new target of $24, up from $23.

Cihra writes in a research note that the company’s core valuation - backing out both cash and the company’s stake in VMware (VMW) - is now just 6x calendar 2010 GAAP EPS. He also notes that the stock offers “software-driven margin and value expansion,” and contends the company benefits from the “secular trajectory” of virtualization and enterprise storage growth. Put it together, and the stock looks “too good to ignore,” he contends.

...

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#38) On May 30, 2010 at 6:55 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

backing out both cash and the company’s stake in VMware (VMW) - is now just 6x calendar 2010 GAAP EPS

... , which is more or less what I wrote in that "preliminary pitch post" about a year ago.I guess some things never change. That "EMC stub" has traded with a P/E ratio of around 6 for a few years now.

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#39) On May 31, 2010 at 5:35 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

The biggest concern right now is which rigs are being affected by the moratorium.  Specualtion is it is the MC305 rig which ATPG has only a 55% stake in and it is a NG well.  Of real concern is if Titan is also to be impacted.  It is not clear if 941 #3 well is to be shut down or not.  Speculation is that it shouldn't since it is a completion well now.  But we just don't know until ATP itself comes out with clarification.  Odds are the #2 and #4 wells which were to come on 3rd and 4th quarter are going to be delayed.  Again, we don't know since technically those wells aren't new drills (though you do need to drill to TD).  The plus side is that the Titan is a state of the art platform

I really could see this stock get knocked down to $5-$8 short term, and in which case it would be a tremendous buying opportunity.  But that's a nasty discount to current prices.  While I have positions in ATPG, I won't add unless I see those low prices.  I am content to let the years play out with this stock

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#40) On May 31, 2010 at 6:09 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

I really could see this stock get knocked down to $5-$8 short term, and in which case it would be a tremendous buying opportunity

Of course it would! If the stock traded down to $5 you would be hearing the BK word thrown around and it wouldn't make you warm and fuzzy about rolling the dice. Let's hope it doesn't come to that... : )

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#41) On May 31, 2010 at 6:31 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

At $5 I wouldn't hesitate, and I'd fund the common stock purchases with selling 2012 puts. Markets always over react, hence creating opportunities.  But since there is too much speculation regarding operational activities I want some more clarity from management  I just don't know if they are even in a postion to give it, but at least tell us if 941 #3 IS or IS NOT affected. If it is, then $5 here we come, if it is not stock should recover to mid teens at least over time. 

Of course just my 2cents.

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#42) On May 31, 2010 at 9:07 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I will make ATPG a 10% position tomorrow and probably a 20% or so positions in the following days. I might add a 5% position in ATPG calls as well.

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#43) On May 31, 2010 at 9:17 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Port be careful on this stock.  You really might want to wait until there is more clarity on how this moratorium will impact the company.  Those production levels in #10 chart won't come to pass if 941 wells are shutdown.  That will also impact their earnings and their ability to meet their interest rate commitments. 

I wish you luck in whatever you do since I am long ATPG as well, though at least I am playing with house money.

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#44) On May 31, 2010 at 9:59 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#39,41,43 I think it is not really a question of luck. I have done quite a bid of reading related to ATPG in the last few months (and days (see comment #33 above)) and my conclusion is that I want to get more ATPG exposure. I usually hold my stocks for a few months or years and "over the next few years" ATPG shares will do better than any of my current "top 10" positions (see comment #1 above), I think.

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#45) On May 31, 2010 at 10:02 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

bid

bit

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#46) On May 31, 2010 at 10:07 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

And yes, I am well aware that my "reading" might not be all that helpful, but I like my "investing results" and am usually highly diversified, so for my strategy that amount of "reading" is probably good enough. The only thing that keeps my portfolio from being extremely diversified is my large EMC position.

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#47) On May 31, 2010 at 10:11 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#1 I think it might be a good idea to sell my mutual fund positions. I have those for tax reasons. I am not a fan of mutual funds and will switch to and India ETF, maybe an emerging markets ETF and probably to individual "mining" stocks.

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#48) On May 31, 2010 at 10:14 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

If you have a multi year horizon, then ok. I just think we might see more pain before gain due to lack of clarity on the moratorium and this damn oil spill.

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#49) On June 01, 2010 at 2:01 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Drilling Moratorium Guidance (pdf)

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#50) On June 01, 2010 at 9:28 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

okay, done. I just added to my position. ATPG shares are now around 8% of my portfolio and my average buying price is at around 11.50 USD.

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#51) On June 01, 2010 at 9:32 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have not sold anything by the way. I used cash. And EMC shares and call options make up around 30% of my portfolio currently, so that is still by far my largest position.

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#52) On June 01, 2010 at 9:42 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I used up pretty much all my cash by the way. I guess a new macbook pro order has to wait. grrrr ...

(That is why it is called discretionary spending, hehe ... My old macbook is actually still doing fine!)

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#53) On June 01, 2010 at 10:07 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I might also buy a few BP shares this week.

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#54) On June 01, 2010 at 10:51 AM, topsecret09 (38.18) wrote:

#53) On June 01, 2010 at 10:07 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote:I might also buy a few BP shares this week.     BP will probably test decade lows at 35...     TS

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#55) On June 01, 2010 at 2:17 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a list of my current "top 15" positions and a few charts are here.

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#56) On June 01, 2010 at 2:52 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Bondholders Lose $300 Million on Worst Performing 2010 Sale

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#57) On June 01, 2010 at 2:54 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

“For them to tap the markets when they did, in retrospect with all that’s going on in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, it was a phenomenal stroke of luck,” said Curtis Trimble, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. in Houston.

(from that article)

very true ...

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#58) On June 01, 2010 at 4:34 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Here's an interesting link from yahoo message board.  Of course what is discussed is hearsay.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=1612&tid=64036&mid=64036&tof=5&frt=2

Confirms closing of 305 well.  Still vague on 941 #3 since all he says is "he believes" it will be completed.  And confirms #2 and #4 wells on hold.  I still can't invest more in this company until better clarity, which probably won't happen until at friday's stockholder meeting. 

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#59) On June 02, 2010 at 10:09 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I just sold some Henkel and SAP shares and added to my ATPG position. They now make up around 12% of my portfolio. The average buying price is now around 10.50 USD.

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#60) On June 02, 2010 at 11:44 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I also have "established" a very tiny position in deep out of the money ATPG call options in the last few days.

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#61) On June 02, 2010 at 1:35 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

DAX.



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#62) On June 02, 2010 at 1:57 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Germany to Cut Spending

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#63) On June 04, 2010 at 10:31 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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ATP Provides Update on Gulf of Mexico Activities

Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Friday June 4, 2010, 8:34 am EDT

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced that the Mississippi Canyon (MC) 941 #3 well at its Telemark location can be completed and the current drilling operation at MC 305 #2 in the Canyon Express area will need to be temporarily suspended. Both announcements are in compliance with the May 30, 2010 6:52 pm CDT Notice to Lessees (NTL) from the Minerals Management Service (MMS) which imposed a six month moratorium on drilling operations in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico as a result of the BP oil spill. Additional clarity regarding the application of the NTL was gained from other pronouncements and releases during ensuing days.

Addressing this update, T. Paul Bulmahn, Founder, Chairman and CEO of ATP expressed, “The tragedy of loss of human life and damage to the environment when discussing the BP oil spill cannot be overstated. Everyone at ATP Oil & Gas Corporation would like to extend our deepest sympathy and continued prayers and support to both individuals and families who have been impacted by these events. As nothing compares to the tragedy of loss of life, we also ask that no one forget the estimated forty-five thousand workers and the families of those workers that will find themselves unemployed as a result of the imposed deepwater work stoppage.”

Telemark Hub Update

ATP has begun the completion operations of the MC 941 #3 well which encountered 266’ of net pay, triple the amount of net pay found in the original discovery well. The NTL provides for completion operations which will allow this well to be placed on production. Access to vendor equipment and services which are necessary for the completion of this well have been limited due to preferential utilization in the BP oil spill. ATP now expects to commence production at the MC 941 #3 during the third quarter 2010. The next two wells at the Telemark Hub, the MC 941 #4 and MC 942 #2, originally scheduled for the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2010, now need to be rescheduled to early 2011 according to the NTL. There is currently one well producing at the Telemark Hub.

ATP operates the deepwater Telemark Hub with a 100% working interest and owns 100% of the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.

Gomez Hub Update

Existing production at the Gomez Hub (MC 711/754/755), ATP’s single largest producing property in the Gulf of Mexico, is unaffected by the NTL. ATP continues to produce the Gomez Hub. The MC 754 #1 well which has been completed is not impacted by the NTL and will be brought on production late 2010 following a pipeline lay and connection. Later in 2010 and early 2011, two wells, the MC 711 #9 and MC 711 #10, were scheduled to be drilled. These development wells would be the ninth and tenth wells drilled into the development reservoirs at Gomez. These wells will now be rescheduled to coincide with the end of the six month moratorium. There are currently five wells producing at the Gomez Hub.

ATP operates the Gomez Hub with a 100% working interest at MC 711 and 755 and a 75% working interest at MC 754.

Canyon Express Hub Update

At the MC 305 #2 natural gas well, ATP began an abandonment operation of one reservoir and a sidetrack into the same reservoir at an updip location. These operations were conducted in accordance with the abandonment permit issued on November 11, 2009 and the sidetrack permit issued May 12, 2010. As a result of the May 30, 2010 NTL, ATP will complete the abandonment operation but will temporarily suspend the sidetrack of the natural gas well. There are currently three wells producing at the Canyon Express Hub.

ATP operates the Canyon Express Hub with an approximate 50% working interest in the wells and associated pipelines.

Liquidity, Production and CAPEX

On April 23rd, 2010 ATP issued $1.5 billion in Senior Secured Second Lien Notes. Net proceeds from the transaction were used to repay outstanding loans under ATP’s prior credit facility and provide $131.4 million in additional liquidity to the company’s balance sheet. In conjunction with the notes offering, ATP also closed a $100 million Senior Secured First Lien revolving credit facility. This facility remains undrawn and available to ATP.

ATP reaffirms its previously announced production guidance for the second quarter of 2.0 MMBoe to 2.5 MMBoe. The six month moratorium within the NTL has moved three wells, the two at the Telemark Hub and the one at the Canyon Express Hub, from ATP’s 2010 production profile. These wells were scheduled for production in the second half of 2010. Based on its revised development program, ATP expects to produce 9.0 MMBoe to 10.0 MMBoe for 2010.

As a result of the NTL, ATP’s preliminary estimate is that $50 million to $100 million of CAPEX will be eliminated from CAPEX in 2010. While the additional costs that must be incurred as a result of the NTL are under review, ATP estimates these costs to be approximately $30 million. ATP will seek to keep these costs as low as possible and will also seek reimbursement, transfer or sharing of these costs from other parties.

All information and projections in this press release are based on the May 30, 2010 6:52 pm CDT NTL and assumptions made by ATP as of the date of this release. New and revised NTL’s, announcements by the White House or other government agencies could cause modifications or adjustments.

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yeayy!

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#64) On June 04, 2010 at 10:33 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

the May 30, 2010 6:52 pm CDT Notice to Lessees (NTL) from the Minerals Management Service (MMS)

05/30/2010 NTL To Implement Directive to Impose a Moratorium on All Drilling of Deepwater Wells (pdf)

 

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#65) On June 04, 2010 at 10:35 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#64 also see comment #49 above.

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#66) On June 04, 2010 at 4:04 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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Moody's lowers ATP outlook to 'negative'

On Friday June 4, 2010, 2:24 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service on Friday lowered its outlook for offshore energy producer ATP Oil & Gas Corp. to "negative" from "positive" because the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico deep water will delay some of the company's production.

Moody's left ATP's corporate family and default-probability ratings unchanged at "Caa2." That affects $1.5 billion in notes due in 2015.

The agency said it also reduced ATP's speculative-grade liquidity rating to "SGL-4" from "SGL-3."

Moody's said the previous "positive" outlook was based on the company drilling and completing three wells in a part of the deep Gulf called the Telemark Field this year.

The company announced Friday that the 6-month drilling moratorium imposed after the BP PLC oil spill would cause it to delay production of two Telemark wells from this year into early 2011 while a third well could be completed.

Moody's said the delay could be longer than expected, and there were uncertainties about future regulatory conditions and costs to resume drilling after moratorium is lifted.

...

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#67) On June 04, 2010 at 6:06 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Well the press release was nice, though wish it was sent out sooner.  Moody's analysis does seem accurate.  ATPG really is speculative now in light of the political uncertainties.  However, if it can get the rest of Telemark on line and 2 more wells at Gomez next year without incurring any astronomical increased charges, stock will look like one hell of a bargain at today's price. At least the Octobuoy is scheduled for North Sea so it can't get Obama'd.  I have an order to sell the 15 2012 puts for $9 open.  If it fills worse case I get the stock for net $6.  Only way that stock sells for that by then would be from unpredictable political consequences. 

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#68) On June 06, 2010 at 5:04 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

BP captures more oil from broken Gulf of Mexico well

"We will stop the leak"

part of the interview.

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#69) On June 06, 2010 at 5:20 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

 

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#70) On June 07, 2010 at 9:35 PM, topsecret09 (38.18) wrote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/business/08sorkin.html

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#71) On June 08, 2010 at 10:45 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

just bought a tiny position in BP shares (at 34.30 USD).

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#72) On June 08, 2010 at 10:56 AM, portefeuille12 (32.57) wrote:

BP/:LN.



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#73) On June 08, 2010 at 11:25 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

added a tiny position in STD shares (8.85 USD).

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#74) On June 08, 2010 at 11:31 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Banco Santander in Frankfurt trading.



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#75) On June 08, 2010 at 11:53 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have sold some Daimler and Henkel shares. The top 10 positions are the still the ones listed in comment #1 above. ATPG shares and options are currently about an 11% position, I have neither bought nor sold any ATPG shares in the last few days.

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#76) On June 08, 2010 at 12:07 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

added a few RXII shares (2.64 USD).

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#77) On June 08, 2010 at 12:13 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

and added a few PBTH shares (6.45 USD).

So in the last few weeks I sold some Daimler, Henkel and SAP shares and added some ATPG call options and some ATPG, BP, PBTH, RXII and STD shares.

All new additions might be considered "risky", so kids, don't do this at home.

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#78) On June 08, 2010 at 12:15 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

(I think PBTH might use the currently "favourable" stock price to make a stock offering and that would probably cause a "minor sell-off". If that happens I might add to my tiny position.)

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#79) On June 09, 2010 at 8:36 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I have added a few Solar Millennium shares (S2M:GR) to my portfolio.

S2M:GR.



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#80) On June 09, 2010 at 12:50 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#71 added a few more BP shares.

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#81) On June 09, 2010 at 7:29 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Man you have guts.  Glad I swapped out of that one.  I do suspect the stock is deing overly pummeled, but been down that road before.

I did hear on Bloomberg radio that Salazar was hinting at shortening the moratorium.  It really seems unfair how ATPG is being punished for BP's mistakes.  I would think if a state of the art platform like Titan can't pass muster nothing would.

The one other concern I still have with ATPG is the potential insurance impact if they put $10 billion cap limits or even unlimited.  And if they do make those changes will they require companies to carry specific dollar amount insurance policies. 

Still too much uncertainty for me to add. 

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#82) On June 10, 2010 at 5:17 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Just sold some Daimler and Siemens shares and bought some VW common (VOW3:GR) and BHP Billiton (BIL:LN, BHP) shares.

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#83) On June 10, 2010 at 5:24 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

BIL:LN

BLT:LN

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#84) On June 10, 2010 at 5:32 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

DAI:GR.



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SIE:GR.



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VOW:GR.



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BHP.



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#85) On June 10, 2010 at 5:36 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

DAX.



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EURUSD.



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#86) On June 10, 2010 at 5:49 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

some "exporters" that should like a "weak euro".

EADS (EAD:FP).



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BMW (BMW:GR).



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Linde (LIN:GR).



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KSB preferred (KSB3:GR).



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#87) On June 10, 2010 at 5:50 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

so, not everything looking bad over here.

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#88) On June 10, 2010 at 6:12 AM, ozzfan1317 (82.47) wrote:

Port you seem pretty bullish on ATPG you might wanna take a look at MCF. No debt and another nice smaller oil and gas play.

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#89) On June 10, 2010 at 7:06 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

You missed a chance to buy at around 330 p today. I don't think it will trade lower than 330 p (split and dividend adjusted) in the next few decades ...

BP/:LN.



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#90) On June 10, 2010 at 7:32 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

These are currently my largest portfolio positions (ordered by current value of the position).

EMC shares and call options (around 30% of the portfolio),
ATPG - ATP Oil & Gas shares and call options (around 11%),
DBK:GR (DB) - Deutsche Bank,
DAI:GR - Daimler,
Indian equities fund,
Mining fund,
EURO STOXX 50 ETF,
BAS:GR - BASF,
Emerging Markets fund,
HEN3:GR - Henkel,
SIE:GR (SI) - Siemens,
ALV:GR - Allianz,
QIA:GR (QGEN) - Qiagen,
AIXA:GR (AIXG) - Aixtron,
ITMN - InterMune,
KSB3:GR - KSB preferred,
H-shares fund,
TKA:GR - ThyssenKrupp,
TEF:SM (TEF) - Telefónica,
SAP:GR (SAP) - SAP,
RWE:GR - RWE,
CBK:GR - Commerzbank,
BAYN:GR - Bayer,
Biotech fund,
Austria fund,
BP/:LN (BP) - BP,
SQNM - Sequenom,
EOAN:GR - E.ON,
DAX ETF,
MOR:GR - MorphoSys,
VOW:GR - Volkswagen common,
TecDax ETF.

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#91) On June 10, 2010 at 6:23 PM, mhonarvar (< 20) wrote:

Salazar says a ban on deep-water drilling could be lifted sooner than planned.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gulf-oil-spill-20100610,0,6857229.story

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#92) On June 11, 2010 at 11:53 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some BASF and Henkel shares. added some Banco Santander shares.

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#93) On June 12, 2010 at 6:36 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Gulf of Mexico BP oil spill: Nick Clegg warns Barack Obama over 'megaphone diplomacy'

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#94) On June 14, 2010 at 12:50 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some Siemens shares (SIE:GR, SI), bought some CRME shares.

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#95) On June 15, 2010 at 10:11 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some Infineon shares (IFX:GR), bought some Qiagen (QIA:GR, QGEN) shares.

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#96) On June 15, 2010 at 5:25 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I will sell some EMC shares and buy some IBB shares (iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index Fund) tomorrow.

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#97) On June 16, 2010 at 11:37 AM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

Nice couple of days for ATPG...it makes me smile. I keep saying I need to look at EMC and get on board...

You have an opinion on KV-A? I bought back in speculating that they are at least going to get operations up and running. They seem to be priced for failure right now...  

Still holding JAV and ITMN... 

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#98) On June 16, 2010 at 12:31 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#96 sold some EMC and bought some IBB.

#97 No, I think they will survive, but I would have to do some reading to know the current situation.

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#99) On June 16, 2010 at 3:26 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some IDT, bought some NOK.

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#100) On June 17, 2010 at 10:56 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some Henkel and Infineon shares, bought some Allgeier shares (AEI:GR).

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#101) On June 17, 2010 at 11:19 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold my position in the "H-shares fund" and bought shares of the FXI and EWH ETFs,
sold my position in the "Biotech fund" and bought shares of the IBB ETF,
sold my position in the "Austria fund" and bought shares of the EWO ETF.

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#102) On June 17, 2010 at 12:24 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

sold some EMC call options, bought some EMC, ARIA and LXRX shares.

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#103) On June 24, 2010 at 5:58 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Secures $150 Million Senior Term Loan and Option for Additional $350 Million Loan

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#104) On June 24, 2010 at 7:39 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Well that takes pressure off any liquidity concerns during the moratorium at least.

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#105) On June 28, 2010 at 8:37 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Analysis: Doing nothing might have been best for oil spil

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#106) On June 28, 2010 at 9:57 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Analysis: Doing nothing might have been best for oil spil

Analysis: Doing nothing might have been best for oil spill

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#107) On June 29, 2010 at 12:30 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Value fund managers start buying BP shares

Buying Into a Pariah

 

I think I will make BP a 5% or so position in my portfolio in the next few weeks.

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#108) On June 29, 2010 at 12:32 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a recent list of some of my positions is in comment #2 here.

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#109) On June 29, 2010 at 12:47 AM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

Porte - sometimes value investing can be like the World Cup. A team can outplay and opponent and still lose to bad officiating. Buy some Sprint instead... : )

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#110) On July 04, 2010 at 3:17 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Mideast buyers reported to be eyeing BP investment

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#111) On July 09, 2010 at 7:01 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

"The BP situation" is discussed here.

T2 Partners June Letter (pdf)

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#112) On July 09, 2010 at 7:31 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Hey Porte,  BP really scares me because they have admitted to knowingly viotlating regulations which basically opens them up to unlimited liability according to the applicable law.  I think there may be discounts in the sector at the moment, but who knows if we are headed for a double dip?

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#113) On July 12, 2010 at 7:01 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

U.S. Issues Revised Offshore Drilling Ban

Decision-Memorandum-Offshore-permitting-and-drilling-on-the-OCS.pdf

New-Deepwater-Drilling-Suspensions-Q-A.pdf

 

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#114) On July 13, 2010 at 6:07 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

BP to test oil spill cap; US pushes drilling curbs

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#115) On July 15, 2010 at 4:28 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

BP says oil has stopped leaking

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#116) On July 15, 2010 at 4:28 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

yeayyy ...

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#117) On July 15, 2010 at 4:32 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

the shorts are running for cover...ATPG saw a nice surge there...

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#118) On July 15, 2010 at 4:53 PM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Wondered what happened to make ATPG jump like that at the end until I saw the BP news. I still have concerns about the capping (namely could it put pressure inside the well or seabed), but I am no engineer.  I truly hope, for the Country's sake, that this procedure works long enough until the well is permanently plugged..

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#119) On July 22, 2010 at 11:37 PM, WallstreetYoda (< 20) wrote:

You still holding on to ATPG?

I assume the stalling today was due to the other oil industry earnings reports? 

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#120) On July 23, 2010 at 12:14 AM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Under 10 I think it is worth a gamble.  And it is a gamble with all this uncertainty.  But worse case, if the company does get priced out of business with increased regs and insurance costs, it opens itself up as a takeover candidate by larger integrateds.

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#121) On July 23, 2010 at 12:34 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#119 ATPG shares are currently my largest position (see comment #19 here).

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#122) On August 02, 2010 at 6:30 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

BP set to start test for 'static kill' maneuver in Gulf

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#123) On August 03, 2010 at 11:33 AM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

Hey Porte, 

Have you seen this analysis

All of my valuation approaches arrive at a pretty conservative value per share of $60 or more. Shares today are around $11 down from $24 in April.  

I sold the lot that I bought at 9.15 for 11.25 but still have a pretty significant position that I plan on holding. 

You should start crushing the benchmark now...it is always darkest before the dawn... : ) 

 

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#124) On August 03, 2010 at 12:46 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

I had not see that article yet. The author is this guy. More of his articles are here.

 

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#125) On August 03, 2010 at 7:20 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

porte,

I like atpg's business model and I think it is near a low since there is realtively low demand for supply in crude oil.

It is hard to beat their foward P/E and their price to book is also good compared to others in the space.

As so many on here are apt to rip on Cramer, I think "Buy, Buy, Buy!".  I hate that Booyaah thing.

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#126) On August 03, 2010 at 7:24 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

How do you say booyah in German? lol.

 

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#127) On August 30, 2010 at 11:57 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

12 Reasons It's a Mistake to Short ATP Oil and Gas

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#128) On September 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Oil & Gas: What the Market Just Missed

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#129) On September 29, 2010 at 6:41 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

Hoping for a few more squeezes in the coming days : )

Still liking the $12.45 average I have here for the long term. Obviously your fund likes the past couple of months as well!

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#130) On October 08, 2010 at 9:19 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

G.E. Keeps Shopping for Energy Assets

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#131) On October 08, 2010 at 10:38 PM, Momentum21 (67.55) wrote:

I am still a believer Porte...currently represents 9% of my "fund"

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#132) On October 09, 2010 at 1:20 AM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Those puts I sold (Jan 15 2011 and 2012) are looking real good now.  I plan on holding all of them to the end since I honestly feel ATPG will be selling above 15, barring any outrageous action from Congress. And if not I wouldn't mind being forced to buy them since my average basis would be 9.

 

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#133) On October 11, 2010 at 9:45 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Commences Production From Second Well at Telemark Hub

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#134) On October 13, 2010 at 4:19 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Oil & Gas at IPAA Oil & Gas Investment Symposium San Francisco

IPAA OGIS San Francisco Presentation (pdf)

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#135) On January 22, 2011 at 1:31 AM, awallejr (79.50) wrote:

Well I sold 40 Jan 15 2011 puts last year for an average price of $4, and bought them back for 1 penny.  Hell of a profit.  I sold 20 Jan 20 2013 puts for $9 recently and will sell more if the opportunity arises.  I truly believe this stock will be over $30 by then on straight asset evaluation.  Worse case I am forced to buy the stock at an $11 basis.  Best case is I keep the $18.000 premium.  I like the Jan 10 2013 calls too.  A spread is a conservative way to play it.

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#136) On August 24, 2011 at 1:12 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

MC 941 #4 (Mirage #4 well) in Q3 2010, 7 Mboe/d and
MC 942 #2 (Morgus #2 well) in Q4 2010, 7 Mboe/d.

 

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ATP Delivers Production Success From Third Well at Telemark Hub

Press Release Source: ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Wednesday August 24, 2011, 8:30 am EDT

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today announced first oil production at its Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) Block 941 A-2 (#4) well in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The MC Block 941 A-2 well is located on the Mirage Field and is the third well brought on production at the Telemark Hub location utilizing the ATP Titan floating drilling and production platform. The well delivered on ATP’s original expectations with an initial rate exceeding 7,000 Boe per day. When drilled, the A-2 well encountered four Miocene sands that are approximately 500 feet structurally higher than the same sands in the MC 941 A-1 well. The A-2 well is completed at a measured depth of 17,600 feet in the C and D sands. All permits to immediately begin drilling the fourth well, MC 942 #2, have been approved with production projected later this year. Company-wide production now exceeds 31,000 Boe per day.
"Bringing the third Telemark Hub well to first production again demonstrates ATP’s technical expertise and safe operations in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico,” said T. Paul Bulmahn, ATP Chairman and CEO. “We have finally realized the planned material production revenue of this well that has been much anticipated for 16 months. This well was already drilled to 12,000 feet and cased prior to the Macondo spill and became subject to the moratorium.
...
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#137) On August 19, 2012 at 12:12 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

ATP Files Voluntary Petition for Chapter 11 Reorganization and Receives Commitment for $617.6 Million in DIP Financing; Oil and Gas Operations to Continue in the Ordinary Course

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