(Attunity:ATTU) Q1 2013 Numbers. CEO/Company Epic Fail. NASDAQ Delisting or Acquisition?
We started out cautiously bullish on (Attunity:ATTU) per our January 18th blog "Attunity (NASDAQ:ATTU) Best Big Data Investment?" (including all comments 1-9). Our caution was based on pending Q1 numbers being reported January 30 when the first smoking gun made its blunt-force trauma appearance providing the impetus for our January 31 Blog "(Attunity:ATTU) Q4/FY 2012 Numbers/Conference Call #BIGDATA" (including comments 1 - 11).
Everything that needs to be said is basically covered in these two blogs including all comments so there is no need to repeat it here, however, you are highly encouraged to review these two blogs thoroughly if you are interested in (Attunity:ATTU) as an investment.
Attunity released their arguably fatal May 2nd smoking gun Q1 numbers along with their SEC Form 6-K.
1. CEO Shimon Alon failed to pull the trigger on a badly needed in-place $20M Secondary q3 2012 (Actual first smoking gun)
2. Attunity's Jan 30 Conference Call (one month into q1 2013 ending March 31) CEO Shimon Alon advised everyone he was providing guidance for fiscal 2013 revenues of 20% growth after announcing 68% growth in revenues fiscal 2012 v 2011. There was no mention of q1 ending March 31 guidance.
3. March 29 ATTU filed Form 20-F for year-ended 12/31/2012 (equivalent to a Foreign 10-K).
Note: It has already been noted that ATTU has inverted Working Capital
"...B. Liquidity and Capital Resources...Currently, our principal commitments consist of liability for the payment obligation due to RepliWeb former shareholders in the amount of $2.0 million (presented in the consolidated financial statements at present value of approximately $1.9 million), expected to be paid in April 2013 by using our internal cash resources..." Source: ATTU 20-F filed March 29. 2013. Note: No one mentioned this in the Conference Call held May 2nd.
4. Heading into the May 2nd q1 2013 numbers announcement Institutional Ownership in (Attunity:ATTU) was confirming another smoking gun despite consistent investor conferences held over the previous 12-months with the likes of Needham Growth, B Riley, Roth, et al.
5. On May 2nd CEO Shimon Alon (Attunity:ATTU) announced "...Total revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were $4.6 million, compared to $6.1 million for the same period of 2012..." and "...Net loss for the first quarter of 2013 was $1,355,000, or $0.12 per diluted share..." effectively wiping out all eps for the trailing twelve months (ttm).
6. The Conference Call Transcripts provided by Seeking Alpha were a train wreck. They were almost unintelligible and where [none] of the analysts on the call were mentioned by name/company.
7. (Attunity:ATTU) closed at $5.32 Friday May 3rd giving up all gains achieved since its July 2012 NASDAQ listing. We still have Q2 numbers which were, again, not addressed during the May 2 CC. Given all the above what is the most likely scenario for the price of (Attunity:ATTU) shares over the next 12-months? And what if there is another miss or consecutive misses...?
All things equal at this point:
1. Given the above issues of fact, CEO Shimon Alon has no credibility.
2. The Street is unforgiving and accordingly could arguably take these shares to NASDAQ delisting. Again, CEO Shimon Alon failed to pull the trigger on a critical $20M offering which would have allowed (Attunity:ATTU) to effectively negotiate these crises. If CEO Shimon Alon was honest with his shareholders and was precisely the CEO (Attunity:ATTU) required for such a small company navigating the Big Data revolution among better funded competition, start-ups, and incumbents, the shareholders would have embraced him for anticipaitng the q1 shortfall and having pulled off a $20M Secondary. But CEO Shimon Alon did not.
Again, given points 1 and 2, CEO Shimon Alon's only? option is to set (Attunity:ATTU) up for a short-term acquisition  or it will be too late for (Attunity:ATTU)...all things equal. But will Shimon Alon, or more importantly, is Shimon Alon even capable of entertaining that thought-process given CEO Shimon Alon effectively created a textbook scenario to create maximum shareholder value destruction of (Attunity:ATTU) shares?
 January 18th blog "Attunity (NASDAQ:ATTU) Best Big Data Investment?" (including all comments 1-9)
 January 31 Blog "(Attunity:ATTU) Q4/FY 2012 Numbers/Conference Call #BIGDATA" (including comments 1 - 11)