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gnulaw (56.58)

(Attunity:ATTU) Q4/FY 2012 Numbers/Conference Call #BIGDATA

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January 31, 2013 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: ATTU , AMZN , SPLK

January 30 very key (see Attunity (NASDAQ:ATTU) Best Big Data Investment?, comment #2)

So ATTU announced Q4/FY 2012 numbers yesterday (Jan 30) and they closed down 13.02% on 5.4X ADV (3 mo).  Seeking Alpha provided a FY/Q4 2012 update/clarification of the ATTU Conference Call after yesterday's close and ATTU closed up 6.57% on 4.2X ADV (3 mo) today.

January 30 Conference Call

The problem with the Q4 Conference Call is that three critical questions were neither addressed by the Company nor questioned by call-ins.

1. ATTU has negative Working Capital <$3,046,000>  as of 12/31/2012.

2. [22:05] into the CC, Chairman & CEO Shimon Alon said "...I am pleased to provide you an annual guidance on expected revenue growth...we anticipate approximately 20% annual revenue growth in 2013..." and

3. ATTUs $20M shelf registration (to fund growth > 20% !?)

(Note: All Callers mentioned below questioned Shimon Alon's disastrous 20% growth comment). No one wants to invest in a Microcap which is essentially no different that a Silicon Valley startup where the CEO declares they anticipate 20% growth. Ludicrous. Suicidal. Again, Mark Gomes published this as he also had the same concerns.


CC Q&A

[24:20] Jordan Kimmel, Magnet Investing

[26:50-31:43] Mark Gomes, Seeking Alpha, Pipeline

[33:53] Ryan Parker Equity Brief capital management

[40:40] Noah Steinberg G2 Investment Partners

[44:18] End.

 

Parting comment

Chairman & CEO Mr. Shimon Alon really did not make a lot of sense and was all over the place with his replies to Mark Gomes, Ryan Parker, and Noah Steinberg. I sense some of the January 30 selling pressure may have originated from Ryan Parker. Why did Shimon Alon fall on the sword with that comment?  Has he already entered into an lockup agreement with Actian Corp and Garnett & Helfrich Capital (incl. all comments, both links) ? Something just doesn't make sense here. I encourage all interested to listen to the CC and decide for yourselves.

 

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 02, 2013 at 9:44 AM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

On Sustainable Growth (g*)

Making sense of Shimon Alon's guidance of "approximately 20% annual growth".

A Company's Sustainable Growth rate (g*) is defined as "the maximum rate at which company sales can increase without depleting financial resources..." [1].  Mathematically g* is basically equal to ROE when there are no dividends. [1].

ATTUs ROE for the 12 months ended December 31, 2012 was an impressive 20.15% which precisely dovetails with Mr. Alon's 2013 guidance  of  "20% annual revenue growth". But it also doesn't address ATTU's $20M Shelf-Registration [3] which would allow ATTU to grow significantly greater than 20% annually. 

I also present below key financial statistics for Big Data players ATTU v SPLK, TDC, BIRT, DWCH, and MSTR.  ATTU is performing very admiraby and is arguably undervalued.

 

Key Statistics [2]


                 ATTU    SPLK      TDC      BIRT     DWCH   MSTR


ROE          20.15    -28.32      24.7     12.04       2.43      11.13

(ttm)

Qtr Rev     23.7       67.00      7.50      -4.80       8.80      2.60

Growth (yoy)

P/E            64.25    N/A         28.38     20.89     361.21    54.91

(ttm)


Rev           25.5M   176.9M    2.6B     138.6M   26.6M     594.6M

(ttm)

MC            84.1M    3.3B       11.3B    275.9B   76.5M     495.9M

(intraday)

 

ATTU Financial Highlights for the Year Ended December 31, 2012

Total revenues increased 68% to $25.5 million in 2012, compared to $15.2 million in 2011

License revenues increased 77% to $14.4 million in 2012, compared to $8.1 million in 2011

Operating income increased to $2.5 million in 2012, compared to $70,000 in 2011

Non-GAAP operating income increased 97% to $4.4 million in 2012, compared to $2.2 million in 2011

Net income increased to $1.5 million in 2012, compared to a loss of $0.8 million in 2011

Non-GAAP net income increased 175% to $4.1 million in 2012, compared to $1.5 million in 2011

Shareholders' equity increased to $9.6 million as of December 31, 2012 compared to $5.2 million as of December 31, 2011

Source: Attunity

 

Footnotes

[1]  Higgins, Robert C., Analysis For Financial Management.

[2]  Yahoo! Finance. Key Statistics, (NASDAQ:ATTU, et al.

[3] September 27, 2012 Attunity Files SEC Form F-3 

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#2) On February 04, 2013 at 6:12 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

The Street* rates ATTU a SELL (D+, Scale of A+ to F) in its Feb 3 "The Street Raings' citing "...Despite the fact that ATTU's debt-to-equity ratio is low, the quick ratio, which is currently 0.69, displays a potential problem in covering short-term cash needs...". This was  point #1 cited above, however, again, could have been easily mitigated with ATTUs $20M Shelf-registration.ALso of great concern is ATTUs lack of any Institutional holdings. Apparently ATTUs presence at all of the Investor Conferences have fallen on deaf ears of Alon is the wrong person selliing the Company to the Investment community.

Does Shimon Alon not understand US Capital markets? This simply [must] be pending or it's arguably over for ATTU. All the brilliant momentum and numbers coming into the January 30 Conference Call and Shimon Alon blew it big time.

Instead of hobbling ATTUs growth prospects in the minds of the investment community with his unfortunate comment, Alon should have said we are conservatively looking at 20% growth with no funding but anticipate implementing our $20M shelf in light of our FY2012 results and superior future prospects to grow the Company significantly greater than 20%(.) End of story.

So, why didn't he say that as ATTUs Chairman and CEO? He is either inept or has already struck a deal...with Garnett & Helfrich/Actian?..unless he provides [imminent] evidence to the contrary. Time is running out...

 

* If you have an account with say TD Ameritrade just enter in ATTU and select Analyst Reports.

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#3) On February 05, 2013 at 1:46 AM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

No institutional ownership. No Analysts following them.

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#4) On February 05, 2013 at 1:47 AM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

No institutional ownership. No Analysts following them.

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#5) On February 06, 2013 at 7:01 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

Negative Working Capital

>>1. ATTU has negative Working Capital <$3,046,000>  as of 12/31/2012.

"...As of December 31, 2011, we had a deficit of $7.9 million in working capital..." Source: Form 20F/A for the year ended December 31, 2011

An improvement of approximately $4.9M.

 

 

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#6) On February 08, 2013 at 6:23 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

ATTU Upgraded by TheStreet from SELL to HOLD citing revenue growth, significant eps improvement, and high gross profit margin, comcluding "... However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the company has favored debt over equity in the management of its balance sheet..".

(Attunity:ATTU) should have/be engaging its $20M Shelf Registration, however, they should not be entertaining 'Units", "Warrants"... just pure common at current market value. Shareholders are not interested in a penny-stock/boiler-room mindset at this point. Attunity has arrived and is performing on point in arguably the hottest secular growth stock industry... #BigData 

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#7) On March 03, 2013 at 1:38 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

So. (SPLUNK:SPLK) Beats FQ4, Strong Q1 guidance lifting  shares of DWCH (up 5.97%) and BIRT (up 4.83%). Attunity not recognized as a Big Data player continues technical breakdown off  another .28%. This comes on the heels of a BIg Data study entitled "Big Data Vendor Revenue and Market Forecast 2012-2017" (last updated Feb 26, 2013) where Attunity is not mentioned.(of 68 mentioned). Privately-held Actian, in a pending acquisition of Pervasive:PVSW, is credited with 100% of its $46 million in annual revenues derived from Big Data software and services. The same study, however, attributes 37% of Pervasives $51 million in Revenues, or $19M derived from Big Data software and services. This is not true as Pervasive is on record attributing less than $3M (< 5%) of their Revenues associated with their Big Data initiatives.

That said, Attunity appears to be failing to get the word out which may explain why they have virtually zero Institutional ownership. This is a huge fail with ATTUs CEO, Shimon Alon. It is simply critical Alon implement their $20M F-3 Registration Statement along with attracting substantive Institutional Ownership or ATTU is going nowhere...unless Alon has already struck a deal with Actian, or more corrreclty, Garnett & Helfrich Capital.

Again, something is not making sense here per this blog, including all comments and references cited.

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#8) On March 30, 2013 at 3:33 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

Update and Smoking Guns

 

1.  March 29 ATTU filed Form 20-F for year-ended 12/31/2012 (equivalent to a Foreign 10-K). 

Note: It has already been noted that ATTU has inverted Working Capital

"...B. Liquidity and Capital Resources...Currently, our principal commitments consist of liability for the payment obligation due to RepliWeb former shareholders in the amount of $2.0 million (presented in the consolidated financial statements at present value of approximately $1.9 million), expected to be paid in April 2013 by using our internal cash resources..." Source: ATTU 20-F filed March 29. 2013

2.  Shimon Alon provided guidance of 20% growth for ATTU to occur the last two quarters of fiscal 2013 ending December 31. How will that affect ATTU price when Q1 numbers ending March 31, tomorrow, indicate no? growth? ...and then again for Q2  ending June 30?

3.  ATTU should have implemented their $20M F-3 Q3, Q4 2012 when the stock was trading at a market cap of > $10M more than it is today. Of significance, ATTU closed at a 7-month low Friday March 28th.  The $20M F-3 is critical for every reason, but is that blown and now exacerbated per points #1-#3 above?

4.  There has been no insider buying on the open market. Insiders feel shares are overpriced?  

5.  Shimon Alon(e)?

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#9) On April 27, 2013 at 9:21 AM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

[Update] 2013.April.27

 

High-level overview of ATTU as of April 27, 2013

CEO Shimon Alon has indicated he would be providing guidance going forward and suggested 20% sales growth for fy 2013 primarily occurring q3 and q4.  So q1 2013 will be announced Thursday May 2.

Note that last year Attunity issued a news release on April 10th its intent to announce Q1 numbers on April 23rd. This year Attuniity announced its intent on April17th to report May 2nd. Significant? I think so. But the real issue is will their q1 numbers meet or beat q1 2012? 

 

Q1 2012

Revenues           $6.1M

Net Income   <$125,000>

 

June 20, 2012 "Attunity announced "Attunity Replicate Named Winner in the Best of TechEd 2012 Awards" The high-performance data replication software was awarded in the highly-competitive business intelligence (BI) category and followed up with that on March 13, 2013 with "Attunity Enhances Big Data Replication Solution to Optimize Data Warehousing and Cloud Initiatives"  Attunity Replicate 2.1 features NEW Attunity TurboStream CDC – an innovative technology to enhance data delivery performance

We are not hearing any substantive monetization of this substantive proprietaty product dovetailing/leading the burgeoning data revolution nka Big Data paradigm-shift...not to mention Attuniity's June 13, 2012 announcement "Attunity Earns Top Distinction as ‘Innovator’ in New Managed File Transfer Vendor Landscape Report" Info-Tech Research Group ranks Attunity’s managed file transfer (MFT) solution as “Best Overall Value” based on its full features and affordability and their follow-up November 19, 2012 announcement "Attunity and OPSWAT Partner to Accelerate and Secure B2B Information Availability" Combined Attunity Managed File Transfer (MFT) & OPSWAT Metascan solution will enable complete file movement management & automated inspection enforcement

Did Chairman and CEO Alon's failure to trigger a [timely/time-critical] $20M F-3 q3 2012 precipitate substantive (permanent?) shareholder value destruction , in addition, to Attunity's ability to monetize their award-winning/proprietary Big Data technologies? 

Since its Nasdaq listing July 26, 2012? Attunity has presented continuously over the past year at Roth Capital Partners, Needham Growth, LD Micro, B Riley, ad infinitum. Institutional Shareholdings were almost non-existent and now approaching zero. Does the street simply not like/trust Shimon Alon, this management team? Something is very very wrong.

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#10) On April 27, 2013 at 2:22 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

So, given the above blog and all comments we come back to Actian Corp and Garnett & Helfrich Capital viz-a-viz their  controversial hostile takeover * of (Pervasive:PVSW). 

Is Attunity the last piece in Actian's Big Data Management puzzle pursuant to its acquisition of ParAccel?  Per the main blog above, is a lockup agreement already in place accounting for the 'the mystery' with Attunity shares plunging?

 

Actian Acquires Amazon-funded ParAccel

GigaOM April 25, 2013  Actian buys Amazon database partner ParAccel

Venture Beat April 25, 2013 Actian acquires big data startup ParAccel

TechCrunch April 25, 2013 Actian Buys Amazon-Funded ParAccel As April Buying Spree Continues  

The Register April 25, 2013  Actian grabs Amazon Redshift's secret sauce ParAccel for analysing 20TB and above data stores

All Things D April 25, 2013 Actian to Acquire Big-Data Startup ParAccel 

 

* (including blog, all comments, all references)

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#11) On May 02, 2013 at 6:22 PM, gnulaw (56.58) wrote:

Q1 numbers.

We pretty  much nailed q1 with each smoking gun presented above. Q1 also unequivocally points to the immediate removal of Shimon Alon for cause. Apparently Matt Benati Head of Global Marketing has already been santized from Attunity.com Management.

Alon blew a critical $20M q3 2013 secondary, announced on January 30, 2013 (1/3 into q1 2013) he was providing guidance for 2013 but did not provide guidance for q1 2013 and appears to have been caught blind-sided which a Secondary offering would have mitigated and additionally confirms Alon is unfit to lead ATTU. Additionally, Alon's omission of said q1 guidance is allegedly a violation of SEC Rule 10b-5 in re: causation, reliance... and goes to Alon's character. He has none. Alon's ability to lead Attunity has now been empirically corroborated i.e. Alon is unfit to lead Attunity(.)

Shimon Alon not only drove his shareholders into the sea Jan 30 - May 1 he sat in the Director's chair orchestrating their fall off the cliff into the sea.

And who knew what and when did they know it to account for the devastating shareholder value destruction from January 30th through May 1 2013?  Alleged direct violations of the Insider Trading Sanctions Act of 1984, the Insider Trading and Securities Fraud Enforcement Act of 1988, and SEC Rule 10b-5, at a minimum.

Story developing...

 

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