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Varchild2008 (84.30)

ATVI pushes BLUR to 2010...Shares Skyrocket up...well..not really..

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September 21, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , TTWO , EA

ATVI's share price skyrocketing up to $12.50 today after the news of BLUR getting pushed back to 2010.

Err... well. no... But that should be today's News Article..

Hey... Is it no surprise here that BLUR gets pushed out?  It isn't for me.... Not when a superior title in "FORZA Motorsport 3" is coming out today.

For long term shareholders... BLUR's pushback is yet again a POSITIVE for us. 

ERTS
TTWO

Everyone is pushing games away to avoid the combination of a nasty recession + similar titles in same genre releasing.  Avoiding competition is a business strategy that WORKS in this industry.


The reality is the only thing I care about in Q4 releasing is:

A)  DJ HERO               A sure fire Blockbuster for some reason flying waaay under the radar.

B)  Call of Duty

Those 2 titles will set the tone for Earnings..... That's why ATVI isn't lowering their earnings estimates inspite of pushing BLUR to 2010.  They know the true strength of these 2 titles will offset BLUR, Starcraft, Singularity, etc. going to 2010.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 21, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Varchild2008 (84.30) wrote:

CLAIRIFICATION!!! OOPS!! When I said Today...

I meant this year... not litterally FORZA releasing today..

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#2) On September 21, 2009 at 9:12 AM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

I'm worried about DJ Hero.  I feel like we're rapidly approaching the point of music-genre saturation.  We just had Guitar Hero 5, The Beatles Rock Band, and now DJ hero is waiting in the wings already.  It's also expensive, which won't jive well in today's economy. 

I do however think that Modern Warfare 2 is going to be huge.   Possibly following the original's lead to take the "best selling FPS ever" title.  It's a bold call, s'why I lead with "possibly", but from what I've seen and heard and the gamer buzz going around, it should do quite well.  

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#3) On September 21, 2009 at 10:04 AM, Varchild2008 (84.30) wrote:

I follow the Forums on gamespot regarding DJ HERO.

There's a growing positive trend..from "This game stinks... Why would I buy another Music Genre game anyhow?"

to now, "Wow! I didn't think such and such would make it into the game...Now that they are I am going to take a closer look at this title."

I am seeing momentum... The kind of momentum that is remiscient of "Prototype" which did really well.

I said Prototype was the game to get excited about in Q2 and I was right.

DJ HERO is the fly under the radar title that many investors are squeamish over.... and they shouldn't be.

DJ HERO's profit margins are so high that selling X number of copies generates more $$ than Prototype or other $60 titles.

Yes... We have a recessionary horrible environment.....

But given the 6+ month neglect...I think many buyers of video games are holding and saving their cash for the Holiday Blockbuster titles.. DJ HERO is one.

Given the U.S. weakness I predict in Guitar Hero 5.... I strongly believe much of it is due to those holding out for DJ HERO.. In fact many commenters on www.gamespot.com's forum have come out and said so.

"I'm not buying Guitar Hero 5 cause I am interested in DJ HERO."

That can't be ignored.  Not by investors...

I don't place a ridiculous claim that ATVI's share price should go up inspite of Bobby Kotick's numbers....and cautious warning to investors..lightly...

Granted.... I really am shocked the share price is actually up 5 cents as I am typing this... I consider myself a good source as I am a hard core video gamer....in MICHIGAN...worse economy in the U.S.

But, even I see the problems....the clouds.... So..if ATVI goes up I was exaggerating about the $12.50  price target..seriously... you can profit take off the BLUR news if ya want.

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#4) On September 21, 2009 at 10:45 AM, Rehydrogenated (35.90) wrote:

Ugh...I just want SC2 to come out...I've been waiting since like 2001.

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#5) On September 22, 2009 at 4:32 PM, QwertyHero (< 20) wrote:

Listen nerds. 

The only reason to invest in ATVI is Warcraft - Expansions and the upcoming movie will renew this cash cows vitality. 

What ATVI needs to do, however, is find another cash cow - then the stock explodes and we all get rich.  Forget about all these crappy games that break even - focus on subscription fee games like Warcraft (but in a different genre) and watch the money roll in. 

What they need to do is make a military/army MMO.  It would be HUGE.  Instead of "levels" you have "ranks."  Instead of forming "parties" you form "units/platoons."  Instead of "classes" you have "MOS's/classifications/specialties" (i.e. Infantry, Medic, Recon, Ranger, etc..." 

Damn.... that is an AWESOME idea.  I am awesome. 

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#6) On September 22, 2009 at 5:15 PM, FleaBagger (34.70) wrote:

QwertyHero- I don't think you were the first person to come up with that idea, but if you hurry, you might be the first to make millions of $$ on it.

ChannelDunlap - Beatles Rock Band is huge. They added harmonies, and fans ate it up (at least, I and everyone I've heard of who tried it did). When you add a new element of gameplay to enhance realism or add a wildly new intrument, people will flock to it.

I'm thinking about adding ATVI shares or writing puts or something.

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#7) On December 31, 2010 at 4:18 AM, HARE90 wrote:

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