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IBDvalueinvestin (98.50)

Averaging down is a "Bad Idea" in my opinion



August 13, 2009 – Comments (3)

Averaging Down - Good Idea or Foolish Risk?

By Ken Little,

Averaging down is a strategy to lower your average cost in a stock that has dropped in price. Is this a good idea or throwing good money after bad?

The answer depends on several factors. First, let me describe how it works. You buy 500 shares at $50 per share, but the stock drops to $46 per share. You then buy another 500 shares at $46 per share, which lowers your average price to $48 per share.

Admittedly, this is a simple example, but you get the idea.

Good Strategy or Bad?

Now, is this a good strategy or not? If the stock rebounds to $60 per share, then it was a great strategy. However, if the stock continues falling, you have to decide to keep averaging down or bail out and take a loss.

Which brings us back to the question, is averaging down a good strategy or not? Before we can answer that question, we need to decide if we are investing in a stock or a company. The distinction is very important.

Investing in Stock If you are investing in a stock, you look for buy and sell signals based on a number of indicators. Your goal is to make money on the trade and you have no real interest in the underlying company other than how it might be affected by market, news or economic changes.

In most cases, you don’t know enough about the underlying company to determine if a drop in price is temporary or a reflection of a serious problem.

Your best course of action when investing in a stock (as opposed to a company) is to cut your losses at no more than 7%. When the stock drops that much, sell and move on to the next deal.

Investing in a Company If you are investing in a company (as opposed to a stock), you have done your homework and know what’s going on within the firm and its industry. You should know if a drop in the stock’s price is temporary or sign of trouble.

If you truly believe in the company, averaging down may make sense if you want to increase your holdings in the company. Accumulating more stock at a lower price makes sense if you plan to hold it for a long period.

This is not a strategy you should employ lightly. If there is a heavy volume of selling against the company, you may want to ask yourself if they know something you don’t. The “they” is this case will almost certainly be mutual funds and institutional investors.

Swimming against the current can sometimes prove profitable, but it can also get you swept over the waterfall.

Conclusion If you’re playing stocks, averaging down probably doesn’t make any sense. Take a small loss before it becomes a big loss and move on to the next trade. If you invest in companies, averaging down may make sense if you want to accumulate more shares and are convinced the company is fundamentally sound. 
 IBDvalueinvestin (95.69) wrote:

Since I don't imploy anyone to average down, selling the momentum stocks before they fall after their massive gains the last month is the best course of action at this point of time. Once they correct I will be a buyer again.

But for now the better value is in the IBD listed value plays. One such play is Dr. Pepper-Snapple 

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 13, 2009 at 1:29 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (88.41) wrote:

" Is this a good idea or throwing good money after bad?"

I vote good idea. If you are averaging down, it should be a stock you want to own. If you are throwing money after bad, then you already did this by owning and wanting to own a stock that isn't worth owning.

So try to do some homework. If it is dropping because I it now risky or because the fundamentals have changed then you should probably sell it and buy something more worth your money.

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#2) On August 13, 2009 at 1:46 PM, throwerw (28.37) wrote:

i think you mean "speculating" in stocks or investing in companies

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#3) On August 13, 2009 at 2:19 PM, outoffocus (23.82) wrote:

In this volatile market, why 7%? In this market a stock can drop 7% in one day then jump 15% the next without anything changing fundamentally with the company. I've personally seen it with one of the stocks I own.

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