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ValueDragonStyle (95.45)

Back in May, the world was ending...

Recs

10

August 03, 2010 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: L , ES.DL , SON

Double dip was a sure thing.

So let's see what happened since then.

If you take a look at May2110 portfolio, you will see some of the following returns since May 21,

EQU +175.12%

CPX +50.99%

TIE +45.75%

TEN +43.56%

LYG +42.37%

SOL +38.95%

CZZ +38.94%

BAK +34.81%

IVN +34.13%

GFA +32.85%

USU +32.63%

LVS +32.45%

CAL +32.18%

ING +30.39%

UBS +30.26%

STD +30.22%

PAY +29.87%

MBI +29.18%

VIT +28.69%

CBI +28.19%

RBS +28.17%

AN +27.67%

PDS +27.45%

ABB +26.97%

ITUB +26.45%

BCS +26.23%

CSE +25.85%

RTI +25.79%

HXL +25.10%

PPO +24.82%

REP +24.11%

MPG +23.70%

WHX +23.31%

ARM +22.99%

ALU +22.54%

EGY +22.16%

CLP +22.10%

RSO +22.00%

ACI +21.99%

CSR +21.67%

CVC +21.66%

MBT +21.06%

ICO +20.92%

AXL +20.92%

CYD +20.39%

OHI +20.09%

And this is just the stocks with returns higher than 20%.

What do you think?

Not too bad for a portfolio of green thumbs started at the beginning of the end of the world, right? 

There is one more thing you will most likely notice about this portfolio: There are no 3X ETF's or red thumbing of crapy OB stocks.

Why?

The purpose of this portfolio is not to score easy points by gaming the system (nor to compete with anyone), but to help us all learn how the market works. We just need to have an open mind, that's all.

Wouldn't it be great to find out if it is possible to be told by the market on which day it will give us a list of future winners?

Sounds crazy, I know. But,why not give it a try.

Good Luck Everybody (and Fools don't be fools)... 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 03, 2010 at 12:05 PM, SultanOfSwing (99.10) wrote:

There are at least 71,000 different strategies in play at any given time with the purpose of helping players learn how the market works as well as, yes, promoting a friendly, healthy competition among the players.

Personally, I don't think that if someone uses leveraged ETFs or red-thumbs OB stocks that they're not adding any value to the investing community here on CAPS that may or may not be applied to a rea-life portfolio.

Just my 2 cents...

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#2) On August 04, 2010 at 2:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Personally, I don't think that if someone uses leveraged ETFs or red-thumbs OB stocks that they're not adding any value to the investing community here on CAPS that may or may not be applied to a rea-life portfolio.

SultanOfSwing, that might be true, but my point was that May2110 portfolio was focused only on real stocks (99.9% of them are houshold names for any investor), not on stocks that are played just for easy points. 

The way stocks were picked for the May2110 portfolio has nothing to do with the CAPS game, gaming of the system, and such...

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#3) On August 12, 2010 at 10:02 AM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

It took just two days to wipe out all gains since May.   These really are just high beta stocks with the additional risk of the more speculative ones going to zero.   Not much better than a levered ETF....perhaps riskier.    

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#4) On August 12, 2010 at 10:52 AM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Jays, you might be right, but why not give it some more time?

I do agree I was bragging  too early, but I think you are also too early with your prediction / analysis.

I do also agree majority of these stocks are risky, but if a lot of these stocks double (or even triple) from here, why is it a problem that they are a litlle bit riskier than safe stocks which give you returns of 2-3% per year (but also can drop 30-50% with no warning)? 

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#5) On August 12, 2010 at 3:00 PM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

There is a reason no one actually holds a portfolio like this in real life.   Unless you have a really large bankroll, your stake in any one of these stocks is fairly minimal with a high number of transaction fees eating into your profits, so the double or triple is just a blip on your portfolio.  You'd have to have at least a few doubles or triples just to cover transactions, but you're just as likely to have them drop in half or in three.   There's just no point except in a fake portfolio like these.   The theory is not implementable and why would you want to anyway?   The risk is just not worth the reward.   You could track a watch list like this and look for some speculative bottoms, but unless you can tell me which ONE stock is bottoming and when, I just don't see the value in this experiment.  

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#6) On August 12, 2010 at 3:02 PM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

I don't know what safe stocks you are buying that go up only 2-3% a year and drop 50%.   

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#7) On August 12, 2010 at 4:01 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Jays, I agree, oce again, that "my" kind of stocks are hard to hold, but I don't think you understand what exactly I'm trying to say.

What do you mean by "just to cover transactions"?

Who said anything about trying to trade these stocks? These are buy-and-hold stocks (Didn't I say double or triple? You can't expect something like that by actively trading these stocks).

Maybe we should each create a fictional portfolio (that we would post here) worth $10,000 (1-10 stocks), and we'll see how they perform long term (we use buy and hold approach)? What do you think?

This "my stocks are better than yours" doesn't really prove anything.

p.s.

Once again, I honestly do agree with you my kind of stocks are really, really hard to hold. I'm no stranger to seeing even 100% gains be erased in a matter of days (50% drops).

However, I also know that many people don't like "my" stocks when they are at $5, but love them when they are at $20. I'm sure that even some of the stocks you like were "speculative" stocks at some point in time...

p.s.2

Do tell which ones you think are good stocks.

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#8) On August 12, 2010 at 5:46 PM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

I pick companies, not stocks.  I pick companies with strong fundamentals and a compelling growth story or niche opportunity.   I buy stock in those companies when their stock price is attractive.   I'd say several of the companies that I like have been considered speculative.     Every stock should have an exit strategy....maybe that's what frustrates me most about your picks and posts.   Lots of love for yourself when the portfolio is at a peak, rather than calling it as a great exit point.   Silence at a trough.    I've had a stock trade at less than 50% of the price that I bought it at.   I consider that a mistake.   I've had several mistakes in my investing career.  Most of them I've exited with small losses or slight gains at a peak.   I'll list a few of the companies that I like, but that doesn't mean that they are at price points that I like. 

LLEN, YONG, RINO, BWLD, PNRA, EBIX, CDCS, SOKF, NEWN, HOGS, YUII

I would consider the following companies "safe"

WMT, GOOG, AAPL, KO, PEP, MCD

I'm really tempted to take you up on your offer just to make a point.   I'd prefer a portfolio where we could weight the holdings to show a measured risk approach which is closer to how I manage my own portfolio, and since I simply think you pick high beta stocks, I would insist on being able to pick the market point of entry for our stocks, rather than entering at a market low point.  I also think you could prove your point by measuring yourself against a levered ETF portfolio.  

Let me think if I feel like devoting the time to it.    

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#9) On August 13, 2010 at 2:21 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Thanks for the list of stocks you like. I really appreciate it.

If you want to play the "game", we can each create a portfolio on smartmoney.com (that's where I track my portfolios) or somewhere else with $10,000 start money.

Then you can buy whenever you want and/or be all cash, if that's what you want. It's all up to you what you do with your $10,000.

Good thing is Smartmoney tracks transaction cost, and you can always add to a position or sell some.

I'd only like us to try to match real life imnvesting as much as possible: No daily trading, but closing picks when we think they hit their fair valuation (or when we realize we made a mistake) should be OK.

The only problem I see is duration. Who knows what we will be doing 2-5 years from now.

But I think it would be fun to try...

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