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alstry (< 20)

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February 08, 2009 – Comments (9)

BERLIN (AFP) – The global economic crisis could trigger political unrest equal to that seen during the 1930s, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a German newspaper interview Saturday.

"The crisis today is spreading even faster (than the Great Depression) and affects more countries at the same time," Pascal Lamy told the Die Welt newspaper.

Questioned about the risks of political instability, Lamy -- who wraps up his four-year term as WTO director-general in September -- responded that that was "the main danger".

"This crisis weighs heavily on politics and puts peace in danger," he said.

"Some democracies are old and sufficiently stable to overcome such problems, (but) others are going to be confronted by unrest and inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts."

He went on to warn against protectionism, saying it would be "wrongly easy" for nations to throw up trade barriers in response to the economic and financial downturn.

Launched in January 1995, and now with 153 member states, the WTO's mandate is to liberalise international trade.

I pretty much agree with Mr. Lamy in both speed and severity of the crisis.  It is very difficult for a government to maintain increasing internal unrest without eventually directing it externally.  With riots breaking out around the world, political and economic systems are very unstable right now. 

Quite frankly, this might be an argument for gold, which also mean it might be an argument for the US Dollar because the US still owns hundreds of billions of dollars of gold in its reserves.

Expect to see and hear more and more world leaders adopt Alstrynomic perspectives in the very near future. 

TMF was one of first forums to convey the info...

Let's hope the above process reverses.....soon.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 08, 2009 at 8:24 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Me I'm keeping the blue side up and doing 50 feet at the speed of heat baby :o)  

My buddy Leo,

You have come as close to any CAPs player distilling Alstrynomics to its essence.  The only thing I would add is when things really get crazy, keep your head up and blue side down and keep waving below to those that frown.....

Over and out.


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#2) On February 08, 2009 at 10:15 AM, jszoke01 (24.75) wrote:

I think gold will be bullish (more so than already), due to perceived flight to safety, but I don't see how the US owning a mountain of it is going to mean a strong dollar.  As of now, you can't trade your notes for gold, essentially, the two are decoupled.

In your mind, how are the two correlated?  I see no reinstatement of the gold standard in this environment.

As always, thanks for the informative blogs.

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#3) On February 08, 2009 at 11:25 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

The dollar is simply an interest free note backed by the full faith and credit of the United States of America.  Bascially, anyone who holds dollars believes that somehow the US can confer something of value in exchange for that note.  The more value backing the dollar, the greater the credit worthiness and higher the value of the note.

Hence, it has always been the postion of Alstrynomics that the US Dollar is one of the strongest currencies in the world by the nature of the significant assets backing the dollar...including a very large gold supply and a wide array of other natural resources maintaining a value far exceeding the national debt backing out present value entitlement obligations.

We, as Americans, are stakeholders by our citizenship in our nation.  The funny part is that as the value of gold risis, so does the assets backing the US dollar.

I find it funny that all those people who went to Harvard and/or are a few standard deviations smarter then the average person can't figure out this very simple concept.

We that practice Alstrynomics are pretty simple folk....we prefer keeping things basic because of our limited processing skills.

Why do you think Alstrynomics has been so accurate at forecasting what has happened?  Keep it simple fools.

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#4) On February 08, 2009 at 12:19 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


From an interview this morning with George Stephanopolous...

SUMMERS: We're in a very serious situation, George. This is worse than any time since the Second World War. It's worse than I think most economists like me ever thought we would see.

But let's remember. In the Depression, the unemployment rate was 25 percent. GDP had fallen in half. We were really in a very different situation than that.

Alstry....had you been a practioner of Alstrynomics and a follower of TMF would have been very easy for you to see what was coming...and it would be very clear that its about to get a lot worse.....

Mr. kidding we are in a different situation right now....the question is where will be this summer and beyond......


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#5) On February 08, 2009 at 12:37 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Alstry has a lot of respect for an economist named John do a lot of other people...

Mr. Williams maintains a cite called

Right now John estimates the current employment rate is about 14-15%....within a reasonable margin of error....I think Mr. Williams is dead on......

So you when you hear those talking heads from the administration or on TV spouting know that you can come to TMF CAPs and get the data first.......

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#6) On February 08, 2009 at 2:29 PM, RonChapmanJr (29.79) wrote:

I'm not sure why you keep referencing everyday and myself. 

again, the important question is - did you take the bet with Donnernv?


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#7) On February 08, 2009 at 6:01 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


I am not sure why you are so self centered to think that when I reference Harvard I am referencing my neighborhood, a Harvard degree is pretty are degrees from a number of Ivy League and other universities as well......and to me, whether a person has a degree or not really doesn't matter nor does it reflect intelligence.

I never understood why people who are capable of memorizing something think they are smart of somehow have a higher than average IQ.

I just love to messing with people I think are arrogant.....especially those that think because they have a degree from a certain place or they took a test and scored decently that they are smarter or better than others.

Think of all those Harvard graduates and others that thought they had really high IQs that f*#ked up our economy.


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#8) On February 09, 2009 at 2:56 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:


I think that translates to "all hat, no cattle".  No bet accepted.

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#9) On February 09, 2009 at 7:55 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


I love your enthusiasm.  You remind me of my son whose enthusiasm to play with the big boys exceeds is current skill level.

If you ever score over 500 points in CAPs, that is a postive 500 points, I will entertain a game where the proceeds, significantly higher than the amount you contemplate,  will be dontated to St. Judes Hospital for Children or other reputable charity benefiting children.

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