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IBDvalueinvestin (99.62)

Battle brewing between two biotechs NVAX & SVA

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August 26, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: NVAX , SVA

Which will come out with H1N1 vaccine first. So far SVA is well ahead but NVAX is still in the race.

According to news sources 50% of Americans will catch H1N1 this Fall and winter. 

I am not looking forward to catching H1N1 

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 26, 2009 at 2:01 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.62) wrote:

If 50% of Americans do catch H1N1 virus then it will wreak Havoc on airlines as travel gets restricted by some nations.

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#2) On August 26, 2009 at 2:20 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.62) wrote:

So far 1579 people in the America's have died from H1N1 or commonly known as Swine Flu. The important thing is that these deaths occurred during the warm months of late spring and summer.

I can only imagine how many more will die during the cold months ahead and with the virus strain changing for the worse.

Read the latest on the Pandemic 2009:

 http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_08_21/en/index.html

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#3) On August 26, 2009 at 2:22 PM, blake303 (29.38) wrote:

Which news sources? None that are reputable.

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2009/08/26/swine-flu-update-how-deadly-will-it-be/

90,000 out of 300,000,000 is 0.03% of Americans.

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#4) On August 26, 2009 at 2:32 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.62) wrote:

lol blake, I am talking about projections for this fall and winter. Not cases that have occured this summer.

This H1N1 flu has same historic chart as the Spanish flu of 1918 both started in the spring and were considered mild in early months because of the warm weather. But as the Fall approached it was deadly.

Here is a Government archive of 1918 flu:

World War I claimed an estimated 16 million lives. The influenza epidemic that swept the world in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people. One fifth of the world's population was attacked by this deadly virus. Within months, it had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history.

The plague emerged in two phases. In late spring of 1918, the first phase, known as the "three-day fever," appeared without warning. Few deaths were reported. Victims recovered after a few days. When the disease surfaced again that fall, it was far more severe. Scientists, doctors, and health officials could not identify this disease which was striking so fast and so viciously, eluding treatment and defying control. Some victims died within hours of their first symptoms. Others succumbed after a few days; their lungs filled with fluid and they suffocated to death.

The plague did not discriminate. It was rampant in urban and rural areas, from the densely populated East coast to the remotest parts of Alaska. Young adults, usually unaffected by these types of infectious diseases, were among the hardest hit groups along with the elderly and young children. The flu afflicted over 25 percent of the U.S. population. In one year, the average life expectancy in the United States dropped by 12 years.

It is an oddity of history that the influenza epidemic of 1918 has been overlooked in the teaching of American history. Documentation of the disease is ample, as shown in the records selected from the holdings of the National Archives regional archives. Exhibiting these documents helps the epidemic take its rightful place as a major disaster in world history.

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/influenza-epidemic/

 

 

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#5) On August 26, 2009 at 6:21 PM, blake303 (29.38) wrote:

lol IBD, you can copy and paste, but you can't read.

Quoting directly from the article (dated August 26th, 2009): "as many as 90,000 people in this country could die of the disease this fall and winter."

So assuming the that half of the American population (150 million people) contract H1N1, resulting in 90,000 deaths, the mortality rate would be 0.06%. If the mortality rate is less than a tenth of 1%, H1N1 is less deadly than the seasonal flu and does not deserve any of the attention it has received. For comparison, the mortality rate of the 1918 flu was in excess of 2.5%.

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