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portefeuille (99.67)

BCRX

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March 14, 2011 – Comments (0)

It might be a good time to buy a few BCRX shares. BCRX shares are currently one of the larger positions of my "fund" (see here). There are currently 8700 BCRX shares in the fund with break-even of around $3.82. BCRX is at around $3.65 now.

 

zzlangerhans on BCRX.

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... Submitted: 8/12/2010 ...

In 2009 Biocryst wanted to be the H1N1 superhero, but in 2010 looks much more like an H1N1 survivor. The company emerges from the epidemic ravaged but alive, with nearly two thirds of their peak market cap melted away from their bones. The new 140M enterprise value seems much more in line with the current pipeline and potential. For the remainder of 2010, the company expects to report results from two phase II studies of forodesine in hematologic malignancies as well as from a phase II trial of the mysterious gout drug BCX4208. Meanwhile, the phase III trial of IV peramivir has begun enrolling patients in the Southern Hemisphere, where they insist on having winter when they should be enjoying summer.

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(from here)

 

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March 07, 2011 ...

Biocryst (BCRX) - market cap 179M, share price 3.99. Cash 66M, debt 0, burn 3-11M.

Biocryst was a top performer from the depths of the 2009 crash, peaking in November of that year ten times higher than March lows. The recovery was aided by the H1N1 flu epidemic and FDA authorization of IV peramivir for emergency use. 2010 was a much more troubled year for the stock, with a 60% decline after the dissipation of the epidemic and a large dilutive financing at a discounted share price. The decline has continued thus far in 2011, despite some apparent positive developments in the pipeline. 2010 saw the release of encouraging phase II data for BCX4208 in gout, and more phase II data is expected around the end of the year. Thus far, study endpoints have referenced the lower bar of uric acid levels rather than clinical improvements. Peramivir is a more nebulous proposition, with the phase III efficacy trial having undergone a change in patient inclusion criteria that will delay completion of enrollment into 2012. A recent announcement of an additional 55M award from HHS to fund the completion of the trial was met with a brief and unsustained bump in share price. Nevertheless, the risk/reward ratio tilts in favor of flu stocks at depressed prices due to the ever-present possibility of a new epidemic. Forodesine wasn't mentioned in the most recent PR despite ongoing phase II trials in CLL and CTCL, which is somewhat ominous for that program given lackluster interim results reported so far. The share price has been hovering around 4 for about 6 weeks and no short-term negative catalysts are apparent. The solid cash position makes a dilutive financing unlikely until the company has regained a higher share price. My GBMB threshold for Biocryst is 3.8.

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(from here)

 

some company presentations are here.

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