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Be Careful What You Wish For.

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October 07, 2008 – Comments (2)

In a reply to someone's blog over the weekend I wished that the market would just lose 1000 points already so we finally hit the damn bottom.  Well I almost got my wish today to my chagrin.  I have been arguing 10k is the bottom with 9k the panic.  We saw it head to 9k then bounce back to 10k.  I would like to think we bottomed but the lack of strong negative volume still has me concerned.

What I want now is apathy.  As a proponent of the dividend, this plays into the thesis nicely.  I did buy heavy today because everyone else was selling.  Did this in 1987 too.  I have cash for one more round of declines and then I sit and wait out the years.  Either my dividend thesis works or I am working until 75.

As an aside the BDI did another partial small rise today.  Also other countries are lowering their interest rates.  They finally are seeing that recession trumps inflation.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 07, 2008 at 12:56 PM, Fool (32.60) wrote:

1987 was not a crash at all. It was a joke. I had more confident in stocks back then that I will ever have in today's market. Back then we didn't have such a large number of participants, not as many companies as now and not as many speculators as now.

You should do some reasearch before you do anything. In my blog I said that honestly I believe dow should be at 3000-5000 and my reason was that atleast half of the companies on wall street are bogus, bull crap, fake, companies. Have you ever heard of reverse merger?

These days there are soooooo many companies who just have a front and nothing else, I personally know of several companies who don't offer any product, nor any services yet their stock is listed and they have more than 100 million in "assets".

If we continue to go forward with this fake market later we will have a much worst time.

In your reply you said 3000-5000 is not reliastic because of inflation alone...that was a stupid comment. Many home makers say: the houses are super cheap because the price is even lower than replacement cost? cost and price and inflation are very relative terms. You can't base truth based on relative things. A fake company is a fake company no matter how u cut it....before stocks were in trouble i wrote a blog called :"thousands of Enrons" Today there are thousands of companies who just have a face and are like enron. they cook the books, they cook everything, but have no ingreidens. It's like cooking with air alone. Sooner or later it will implode. I say let it implode now and let transparency and truth come to forfront and later we will have a stronger, better econmoy. The era of fast money is over but let us have an ear of conservatine, sound, tranparent, growing economy.

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#2) On October 07, 2008 at 4:31 PM, awallejr (83.78) wrote:

No, anyone who argues 3000-5000 Dow is making a stupid comment.  The DOW is composed of 30 stocks.  You even suggesting those 30 are fake companies?  And if the DOW ever hit 3000 you are talking a total collapse of the world economy.  And while you might take glee in that kind of scenario, more prudent people wouldn't.  It is talk like yours that makes me feel more confident a bottom is approaching.  Just waiting for that high volume day for final capitulation, and it isn't happening at Dow 3000 because there really is TOO MUCH cash out there in light of what the FED and treasury are doing.  I am still sitting on 50% cash myself.

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