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Lulupoopsalot (85.53)

Be careful which Fools you trust

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September 19, 2012 – Comments (36)

Yesterday I was looking around for some good long ideas by scouting many of the top players to see what they are doing.  However, long ideas were few and far between among the higher rated players.  There were a few high score players with a history of going long, don't get me wrong.  But it seems that many of these other players have taken the easy route to a 99 rating by shorting the ultra shorts which over time is bound to be a winner.  But this is not realistic for obvious reasons.  So my point is that while you may see a 99 going long on a stock it might be a good idea to see if he's earned that score from going long other stocks or simply shorting their way to the top.  A high score on this game doesn't always translate into a good long term investor, in fact, it may be the exact opposite.

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 19, 2012 at 11:19 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

That some top fools use leveraged ETFs (as you are doing) is definitely something players looking for ideas should note. This comment is made often.

I disagree, however, with your title concerning trust. None that I am aware of deny any style or strategy that are useable within the game boundries.  No one should follow anyone blindly, even an investment guru, analyst, or a person playing a "game".

Most of us are here to learn.  You can learn by swing trading ETF's, you can lose by a big call on the market at the wrong time. Some of us do make pitches on our conviction calls, although it is getting rare. Some do use the "conviction pick" icon, although this can get "dated".  The accuracy rule here causes most to keep picks open past conviction and people forget to change the icon.

Overall, some people are here to play, some to have a record of thier thougts and no intent to score, some to learn with a variety of styles.  Some play sectors very well such as housing or biopharm, some look for market sentiment.

Being here to learn is the best reason. If you're here to learn, it still doesn't mean to skim picks from top rated players without learning why they picked them. You need a plan for any investment, why to buy, why you would sell.  I trust players with a 99.x have some idea of the markets and some idea of "bad stocks".  Some have good ideas of "good stocks" to research.  None ask for or expect "trust" from a follower.

Good luck.

TSIF

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#2) On September 19, 2012 at 11:28 AM, JohnCLeven (74.34) wrote:

Can you please recommend a few Fools who have developed a reputation as exceptional long term investors?

I'm always on the hunt for for such Fools to follow and learn from.

 Thanks!

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#3) On September 19, 2012 at 12:15 PM, zzlangerhans (99.81) wrote:

This should be autoreposted every week as long as CAPS exists. If the total money lost by CAPS players from buying top 10 Fool picks was computed, it would probably surpass the GDP of a small African nation.

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#4) On September 19, 2012 at 12:32 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.52) wrote:

First of all, love the CAPS handle.  :)

Second, you might enjoy perusing the ranks of those CAPS players with the "Yes" charm, which is reserved for those CAPS players that have never issued a thumbs-down call:

http://caps.fool.com/PlayerRankings.aspx?filter=101&lc=40

Fool on!

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#5) On September 19, 2012 at 12:36 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

zzlanherhans, substitute "blindly follow" for "trust" and I agree with you.  But that should apply for anyone that advises you on "your" money.

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#6) On September 19, 2012 at 12:42 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Good point Sinch, although the "top ten" and other filters rarely work anymore.  That would weed out all who use ETF's. I don't have an issue using ETF's lightly as market trend/inflection points.

JohnCLeven, everyone has their "style" or what they are trying to learn. zzlangerhans is top notch expressing his views on biopharms.  TMFsinchiruna has the precious metals market under analysis.

I have 10-20 rotating fools on my watch list who fit my style.  I delete them if they stop making picks and I may not see they "came back". Most use to come from Blog Writers, but that's pretty dead now.  It's hard to keep a list.  I see you have porte5 on your list. Any of the porte family is good to watch. I prefer watching the original portefeuille, he blogs more, but his spelling isn't quite as good.

The place is slowing down. Mileage/tastes vary.  Fools come/go.  The "most loved" list may give you some ideas, but again, many of them are gone.  The point is learn, don't follow and scores are not the best indicators, but unfortunately they become a variable because they are easier to search for and do have some merit if you understand the "game".

 Good luck.

 

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#7) On September 19, 2012 at 1:32 PM, Turfscape (40.47) wrote:

>>Can you please recommend a few Fools who have developed a reputation as exceptional long term investors?>>

@JohnCLeven

There is a Fool who is, quite appropriately, named TMFUltraLong . Perhaps take a look at his CAPS portfolio and see if you like some of his ideas.

 

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#8) On September 19, 2012 at 1:52 PM, Lulupoopsalot (85.53) wrote:

John wrote: "Can you please recommend a few Fools who have developed a reputation as exceptional long term investors?"

Thanks for the question John, my favorite long player is portefeuille.

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#9) On September 19, 2012 at 2:24 PM, JohnCLeven (74.34) wrote:

Thanks all!

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#10) On September 19, 2012 at 4:00 PM, EnigmaDude (87.20) wrote:

I don't "trust" any of the Fools regardless of their score.  But there are some I pay particular attention to.  One of those who I have learned to respect is megashort, even though we do not always agree.  That "top" Fool has especially good insight on value traps and stocks to avoid.  And I often agree with TSIF but I would not trust him to save me from drowning!  (jk)

Also like porte and zzlangerhans for biotech picks (not that I "trust" them but do believe they have good insights) however, I am not enough of an expert to trade those stocks in real life.  So it depends on what sort of advice you are looking for.

But yeah - do not blindly follow anyone when it comes to investing your own money.

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#11) On September 19, 2012 at 4:21 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

I like Megashort also, but he's not someone I would recommend for LONG IDEAS!!!  ;)

I don't swim well EnigmaDude, I'd be lucky to save myself, but I would attempt to toss you a life preserver or "doughnut".  Heck, I don't trust myself a lot (most of the) time when it come to investing or speculating here on CAPS.  I sometimes short mysefl just to cover my bases.  It's hard to know who you agree with when you don't know their thought process, timeframe, entry/exit plans.  All the more reason not to follow.

Good luck, well stated!!!

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#12) On September 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM, Valyooo (99.57) wrote:

I notice a lot of people say that people short etfs as the easy road to 99%.  So if it is a guaranteed winner over time, why not do it in real life?  In TD Ameritrade, I constantly short UNG, FAS, FAZ, DTO, UCO, VXX, VXZ, all of the leveraged bull and bear silver and gold etfs.   I just wait for one of them to pop with an RSI above 70, then I short it.   Then if it goes higher, I short some more.  Once it goes back down to RSI below 50, I cash out and wait, and do it again.  They dont charge me hard to borrow fees that I am aware of, and if they do, it still wouldnt be more than the amount I make off this.

 

I actuallt dont really do much other trading any more.  Establish a core position (right now its high yielding blue chips) and short the junk ETFs when they pop.  Very simple strategy, and it works.  Not a caps-only tool, like shorting chinese RTOs, which I cant find a brokerage house that allows me to do that. 

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#13) On September 19, 2012 at 5:10 PM, JohnCLeven (74.34) wrote:

While we're dropping names, I have nothing but good things to say about valuemoney. I've really enjoyed exchanging ideas with valuemoney/valuemoneygreen. He (or she?) is always friendly and eager to exchange ideas/impart wisdom. 

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#14) On September 19, 2012 at 5:15 PM, JohnCLeven (74.34) wrote:

And while I briefly have so many highly ranked players attention, do any of you have investing reading recommendations?I've recently completed Intelligent Investor, all Buffett's letters, Klarman's Margin of Safety, Peter Lynch's books, etc, and now i'm hungry for MORE! Thanks guys. Much obliged

 

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#15) On September 19, 2012 at 5:26 PM, Valyooo (99.57) wrote:

I might get a lot of backlash for this, but keep in mind that books written on investing in the stock market from 80 years ago are, ahem, outdated.  

You cant find a company trading at like 1/2 of its tangible book value nowadays with the internet, unless there is a huge chance of fraud.

 Just brush up on your accounting, watch "mad money", and read all different opinions, and ask a lot of questions.  Buffets letters are good, but I think the best thing you can do is see why things are moving.  I think DCF stuff doesnt work anymore. 

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#16) On September 19, 2012 at 5:29 PM, Valyooo (99.57) wrote:

Ultralong, while very good, made most of his points by calling a huge bottom.  That really had nothing to do with good stock calls, he just caught a market bottom.  He also has up thumbed a bunch of fraud companies.

For accounting stuff, goldminingxpert is good.  TSIF is good, griffin416 is good.  port is good but he doesnt explain his rationale ever.  Babo is good with small cap oil stuff.  JakilaTheHun is very good but he is too academic sometimes.  ikkyu2 is good and down to earth, tmfdeej is awesome for special situation stuff 

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#17) On September 19, 2012 at 5:31 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#6,8,10 Thanks for mentioning some of us.

les douzes portefeuilles.

I think portefeuille2 is doing best, followed by portefeuille and portefeuille3. If INHX was still have the "biotechnology" tag, portefeuille2 would still be leader in that category. Followed by portefeuille ;)

the biopharma gang on twitter.

https://twitter.com/zzlangerhans

https://twitter.com/portefeuillefun

https://twitter.com/Momentum21Fund

https://twitter.com/BiologyFool

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#18) On September 19, 2012 at 5:33 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

was still have

were still having

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#19) On September 19, 2012 at 5:36 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#18 ... or was still having, or were to still have or whatever.

The comment about my writing difficulties had some truth to it ;)

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#20) On September 19, 2012 at 6:06 PM, Mega (99.97) wrote:

Thanks for the shout out Enigma. I don't short many value traps though - I mostly concentrate on growth traps, pump and dumps and frauds.

TSIF, I'd recommend me for long ideas! That's like Sinchiruna suggesting you short a gold miner or TMFDeej suggesting you short a dividend paying IPO - you should be scrambling for your keyboard.

If I had to invest alongside someone on CAPS it would be you because I can follow your thought process.

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#21) On September 19, 2012 at 6:31 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Portefeuille, I was poking fun of you on your spelling. You really should read some of the studies on how the human eye regards things. I'd suggest 80-90% of the typos you make most people read right by.  Correcting them in your next post isn't necessary for clarity!!  ;)  I know what you meant in 98% of the cases and I appreciate your sharing them.  I can't keep up with 12 portes, I just think of them all as one whenever I see one of them on a stock list as having picked a stock. When I see more than one, I just read it as "conviction".  ;)

Megashort, I actually realized after I walked away from my computer, (some day, starting with cellphones, they will be permanently attached to us), that I would recommend you for "long ideas".  In the aspect of checking any longs I was considering to see if you were shorting them!!!  ;)  You're right, I would be very interested if you went long or Sinch shorted a miner or Deej hit most anything negative.

Your other comment is just plain "scary", but appreciated!  ;)

 

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#22) On September 19, 2012 at 6:42 PM, cbaines2 (99.08) wrote:

If I may tout my own horn for a moment, I write for the Fool (I'm Chris Baines) and have a 96% rating. Most of my calls are long and long term, but some short. The account has been active for 4 years. 

I've never made a call on a levered ETF. Not for any moral reason, but because it's never really seemed worth it. Ya the constant leverage trap will eventually bring it down, but things can really kill you in the short or medium run. 

If you're wonder why I don't have "TMF" by my name, it's because I don't write enough to qualify. And there is no 'cbaines1' or cbaines. I went with "'cbaines2" because I picked it for a Yahoo! account along time back and just stuck with it.

Chris Baines (cbaines2) 

 

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#23) On September 19, 2012 at 7:42 PM, rd80 (98.13) wrote:

I agree with all who say CAPS score by itself doesn't tell much.  I don't think I'm anywhere near as good at this as my score would indicate.

If my score was based on picks I've made over the past year or so, I'd be wearing a propeller beanie.  The picks haven't been awful, most have gone the way I picked in absolute terms, but most haven't done as well as the benchmark. I kind of expect that since I tend to like low beta stocks, but still...

There are at least three reasons no one should ever buy a stock based solely on one of my (or anyone else's) picks:

1.  What fits my portfolio may not fit someone else's.
2.  My goals and risk tolerance may not match someone else's.
3.  I make plenty of mistakes - see red thumbing TMF - an ultra etf tied to rising interest rates - for a really bad call.

Get ideas from other players, articles, gurus on TV, wherever you can find them.  But always do your own homework before making a buy or sell.

Fool on!  Russ

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#24) On September 19, 2012 at 8:25 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.71) wrote:

Just blindly follow -scruffy4life  and you should fare well.... jk ;)

 

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#25) On September 19, 2012 at 8:57 PM, Valyooo (99.57) wrote:

HarryCarys....you are catching up to me too quickly....grrrr

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#26) On September 19, 2012 at 9:57 PM, JohnCLeven (74.34) wrote:

#16 "For accounting stuff, goldminingxpert is good.  TSIF is good, griffin416 is good.  port is good but he doesnt explain his rationale ever.  Babo is good with small cap oil stuff.  JakilaTheHun is very good but he is too academic sometimes.  ikkyu2 is good and down to earth, tmfdeej is awesome for special situation stuff"

Sounds like the foundation for a startup investment firm...

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#27) On September 19, 2012 at 10:49 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#26 A very bad idea. The only good thing to come out of the large cooperation attempt involving 3 of the above was my "fund" (after being kicked out for making too many calls after the first week or so ;)). Then again considering how my fund has done since then maybe the idea is not that bad. I want to have nothing to do with it though ;)

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#28) On September 19, 2012 at 10:58 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#28 I do want to encourage everyone to start a twitter account. Everyone that does not already have one at least. And those that are at least somewhat interested in biopharma, one of the best performing sectors of the last few months, should follow the accounts mentioned in comment #17 above and a few of those we follow. The information density and velocity is pretty high over there :)

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#29) On September 19, 2012 at 11:06 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Those looking for "caps" game players having a decent track record making "outperform" calls should start with the list of "best outperform players", by the way. See this post.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/outperform/625334.

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#30) On September 19, 2012 at 11:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#29 Obviously you have to throw out the Track... players and those that have not made any calls in quite some time. Anyone not on that list should have a good excuse, like making very few calls, or being great making outperform calls on stocks in a sector that has "underperformed badly". And I agree that almost the entire current top100 in the "caps" game ranking are not good at making outperform calls. Or have the additional virtue of being very good at hiding their ability ;)

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#31) On September 19, 2012 at 11:24 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

a post on this apparently quite old topic ;)

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/would-caps-leaders-know-a-good/59744.

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#32) On September 19, 2012 at 11:28 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

making fun of those poor "top ten players" is really fun every now and then. they do try really hard to play their silly little "accuracy" game though. if only no one paid attention, see comment #3 above ... ;)

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#33) On September 24, 2012 at 4:06 AM, valuemoney (99.99) wrote:

portefeuille  This is a game to me and I do play the accuracy game. It is a game and if I play a game I like to win. I will toot my own horn on my green thumb calls though. I have made 649 of them. Only 64 have been for negative points. That is more than 90% being for positive points. I expect 8 of those 64 to turn out positive. 91.37% of my green thumb picks being positive for points isnt to shaby if I do say myself. As for ideas from other players on CAPS I look all around for ideas then take everything in and decide for myself. Of course I like the list of favorites on my caps page because I look for players with similiar investing ideas along my train of thought. I like seeing pitches but with most players I can see their thoughts without seeing their pitch. I don't add portefeuille my list because he picks way to many stocks I wouldn't touch. I can't invest like that. Might he be one of the best overall stock pickers on this site. SURE. I can't do that and choose not to. Frankly I would rather follow truthisntstupid or bargainstocks. Now I would bet money if you gave them all a huge list of stock to TRADE off and on over a 3 year period Portefeuille would win hands down. I ain't looking for a lot of ideas on a lot of stocks. I only need 5 to 10 REALLY good ideas to make me money. Heck I never own more than 10 stocks in my real life portfulio. At the begining of the year I only owned 3. Now I own 1 at the moment. Now some people have between 100 and 200 picks (green thumb) how can I tell what their best idea is and why? I sure can't because no one says. Plus I sure am not going to own and trade 100 stock in a year. That is ludicris to me. So it is funny to me why people on here have that many picks or make so many picks. I do it because I am playing the game. So portefeuille I am not trying to be mean but making fun of you for something that would never apply to my investing ideas in real life would make following all your picks just as sillly as the 'accuracy" game.....same would go for following BravoBevo....that guy is as awesome as you as it pertains to getting a lot of calls right. So bottom line I kinda look what everyone is doing take everything into consideration and form MY OWN OPINION. Everyone should do the same. It is kinda mean making fun of anyone though because you don't know what their goals are. And portefeuille I know you are not mean to others on this site or try to bash others.  But I could state or keep stating that anyone who has made over 1400 picks since November of 2008 is silly because who is going to make that many trades. zzlangerhans is way awesome at what he does too. But I would never even think about investing in 99% of the stuff he picks. I havent pry will never own a biotech or make a spec call. Jim Cramer? Super Smart but I don't know one day if he will like the stock and the next day hate it. Well enough of me rambling. Good luck to all and have a great week.

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#34) On September 24, 2012 at 7:14 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#32,33 Alright, maybe making fun of them is more fun when they pretend to be good at "stock picking" and you apparently are not terribly convinced you are good at that (just like I am not convinced I am), so you are excluded from the making fun of target group ;)

And you are right, I do not usually write anything negative on anyone. Comment #3 above still does explain the major problem with this game quite nicely though ...

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#35) On September 24, 2012 at 7:16 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

still does

does

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#36) On September 24, 2012 at 9:06 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#35 I give up. Of all choices I selected one that introduces a new error ;)

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