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bear food? asia is down, futures are down



May 17, 2009 – Comments (9)

I think that this correction might have some legs.  Last weeks bearish action saw alot of stocks, though not the market itself, have their low for the week wednesday before ending a bit higher on Friday.

As is always relevant:  I am not an expert on timing the market, and in general I have always presumed to know nothing about the short term moves on the market.

That noted, I have noticed that the market going up on what is apparently not good news, or the market going down on what is apparently not that bad of news, might have acted so far in this bear market as a leading indicator of the market being about to turn.

So late last week we had some generally positive news, but the market sank Friday anyway.  And if we get some generally positive news this week and the market sinks anyway, I will start deploying the cash that I have on the sidelines. 

I do not think that we are going to get anywhere near the previous lows (march 9, nov 20), but I think a correction of another 10% is not out of the question. 

This blog is one that may very well not prove to be very intelligent in retrospect.  i cannot overestate that I can not see the future and do not have a great track record of calling market turns.  I boldly predicted that earnings season would see the market turn back down, and then Wells Fargo turned it around and it just kept going.  I boldly predicted that the S&P had no chance of hitting 930 and hedged accordingly and lost some money on that hedge.  But i'm trying to get a feel for the dynamic and these wild swing cycles. 

And I think the market correction this time might have some legs. 

Nothing we can do about it but take a hedge, and ready some cash to buy whatever stocks you really like on the dip. 

Remember, if the marke twent up 0.1% every day that would be very comforting, but in the long run it wouldn't make you as much money as huge dips can. 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 17, 2009 at 11:53 PM, checklist34 (98.69) wrote:

Home Depot and Lowes are considered some of the key reports for this week because they relate to housing.  Housing is at the core of this, and any apparent goodness or badness from them might be a trigger.

I'm looking the market reacting wrongly to announcements from HD or lowes, as in HD reports some decent numbers tomorrow and the market tanks anyway.  HP also reports, along with some retailers including Target and others. 

I am going to look for the market reacting negatively to what is not bad news as a sign to put some money to work.

On Teusday we will have April permits and housing starts, a potentially nice trigger.  Wednesday we'll have fed minutes, and thursday we'll have jobless claims and leading indicators.

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#2) On May 18, 2009 at 12:34 AM, awallejr (38.34) wrote:

I am actually hoping for a meek housing start report tuesday.  We still have alot of foreclosure inventory to clear out.  The less competition from new starts the better in the long run.

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#3) On May 18, 2009 at 1:02 AM, checklist34 (98.69) wrote:

interesting perspective, awall...

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#4) On May 18, 2009 at 1:08 AM, motleyanimal (38.35) wrote:

I don't think anything matters so long as Miss America is still puking in the toilet. Yeah, we are going to slap the bitch and get her sobered up, but she is still the finest beauty ever to walk the planet and she will reign on and on, and we will worship her in good times and bad, because she is ours.

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#5) On May 18, 2009 at 1:21 AM, checklist34 (98.69) wrote:

i am not sharp enough to gather whatever meaning that held, animal, but it sure made my chuckle


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#6) On May 18, 2009 at 3:46 AM, portefeuille (98.81) wrote:

have a look at this:


HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- A deluge of buy orders greeted Indian shares early Monday, propelling the country's benchmark stock indexes nearly 15% and triggering market circuit-breakers to halt trading.

The leap came on optimism that the Congress Party's alliance victory in the just-concluded general election will result in a more market-friendly economic policy.

Data available on the Bombay Stock Exchange stock showed the trading halt came after the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, surged up 14.7% to 13,963.30, amending an initial reported rise of 10.7%.

On the rival National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty index jumped by 14.5%, or 531.65 points, to 4,203.30, also leading to a trading halt.

The BSE initially announced a one-hour halt, which it later amended to two hours.

Meanwhile, Nifty May futures traded in Singapore soared as high as 16.1% to 4,276.5, according the Singapore Exchange Web site.


chart for the sensex here ...


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#7) On May 18, 2009 at 11:23 AM, checklist34 (98.69) wrote:

thats amazing about india, just amazing.

For today my fine fellow fools, I clearly was not right about short term market moves.

lol. i am so, so not cut out to be a day trader

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#8) On May 18, 2009 at 11:27 AM, dibble905 (< 20) wrote:

you can't predict short-term moves. if you can, you're just plain lucky.

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#9) On May 18, 2009 at 12:05 PM, checklist34 (98.69) wrote:

dibble, agreed.  especially i can't, lol

I still think there's a solid chance we strongly test 870 in the next week or 2. 

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