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alstry (35.34)

Bears Turning Bulls.....Not Alstry......Yet

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October 12, 2008 – Comments (14)

First we have to distinguish between the consistent bears....many of the top players......and the flipflop bears........those whose positive or negative position seems to change week to week and then when the market moves in either direction they remind you how right they are.......all the time.... as if to compensate for some personal insecurity......I WOULD PUT CRAMMER IN THIS CAMP AND ANYONE WHO IDENTIFIES HIMSELF AS A PRIMATE.

It seems that many pros are thinking we are hitting a technical and/or fundemental bottom. If enough think so.....it may become a self fulfilling prophecy.......but yours truly think we have a long way to go before any fundemental bottom is reached. A LONG LONG WAY TO GO!!!!!!

We could have retracements......and they could be sharp..... wiping out many in the process. I never thought I would ever say this but being a competent trader could actually serve people well in this environment.

We will be entering a very turbulent period in the REAL WORLD. Unemployment will skyrocket.....now I am confident that it will exceed 20% in the not too distant future and 30-50% is very possilble if we continue down the current road. In addition, bankruptcies will be more commonplace and social issues once reserved for third world countries will likely land on our shores. This will be a period where cool heads prevail.

Stratagies must be in place and reduced to instinct to avoid being distracted by the inevitable noise that will be screaming at you day and night. I have travelled around the world.....have seen opportunities where others only saw despair.

Since joining CAPS FloridaBuilder and others have said my blog provides little insight into investing. The funny part is that I have kicked their backsides in both points and average score since jointing CAPS. In the end, its points that rule the day......and I accomplished this by maintaining a very high average score while being almost exclusively short approaching a total of almost 200 picks.

The reason I mention this is not to brag about my score....it could reverse tomorrow and it wouldn't mean a thing in the short term nor would it impact my blogging......but simply to lift the vail from much of the crap these guys spout off. Much of life is nonsense these days.....it is destroying our country.....and rapidly.

If these guys say this blog provides little investing insight.....and this game is about points.....and I have beat them on points........then imagine the quality of the nonsense they spout of to you. As a former trial lawyer, I am an expert at sifting between BS and truth.....and drawing it out of people does not take too much effort for me. There are a lot of wonderful bloggers on CAPS....DWOT, Demon, and Ares...come to mind quickly.......but there are many others and I appologize for omitting the many of you for the sake of brevity.

Alstry is about winning, helping others, and improving myself. Few have made the magnitude of financial mistakes I have.  But with mistakes come lessons.  America was built on merit and that makes me proud when travelling or meeting foregners discussing various issues. Much has been lost recently but with focus and effort we can bring it back.....if not for ourselves but for our children.

No deception or BS on this blog.....sarcasism and humor rule the day, and critcism and critical thinking is not only encouraged......it is appreciated. You want to strive to be the best....hang out here..............you want to eat bananas, laugh at others because you are lazy or incompetent,... go someplace else.

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 12, 2008 at 11:58 AM, StatsGeek (29.28) wrote:

I value your blogs, Alstry, and tend to agree with most of your ideas.  So I, for one, hope you stick around.

But what's with the referring to yourself in the 3rd person all the time?  It's usually megalomaniacs who do that.

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#2) On October 12, 2008 at 12:18 PM, SemperGumby77 (60.07) wrote:

Long term, I would expect that you are correct. I think we'll be entering into a period of stagflation here that will be on par with the 1970's. This will mean a multi-year bear market.

Short term, however, I am expecting a rally that could start anywhere from tomorrow to the end of the month. This isn't a place where I would be short. Everything is just too oversold, there's no edge on the short side right now.

Though I would hesistate to call anything impossible, I would say that 30%-50% unemployment is extremely unlikely. At the height of the Depression we had 25% unemployment. I can't see us exceeding that. I would tend to think that at 50% unemployment, society would cease to function. The crime rate would be so high that doing business would be a near impossibility.

I am curious,since you are probably the most bearish of the bloggers here. What would make Alstry bullish? Do you have a downside target? What would make you cover your shorts?

 

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#3) On October 12, 2008 at 1:00 PM, rudolphsteiner (< 20) wrote:

we're all primates, dude

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#4) On October 12, 2008 at 1:46 PM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

Yes Alstry, so many of my bear friends turning bull. Or simply missed this hugh tankage!!!

 I have warned many friends that one day they will miss a big one. And they did. I am not good at flip flop. So I will take the chrysler and hope the sanity will previl one day. It was painful but I will come out good at the end. Just make sure you don't over leveraged and get killed before you see the victory.

 It is far from over. Wall St. might just front running the mainstreet at this moment. But mainstreet will soon past wallst.. And big crash will come after that.

 Alstry, do you give some advice on how to prepare for the future? TIA.

 

 

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#5) On October 12, 2008 at 1:50 PM, DerektheDude (98.86) wrote:

Whoa, did somebody say "Dude"??

I'm with you, Alstry. I have learned more in the past few months than in the previous years of investing. It may be painful to watch your money disappear on paper, but I'm planning on staying the course. Dude, the market will be back! And the US of A ain't going anywhere...

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#6) On October 12, 2008 at 2:10 PM, alstry (35.34) wrote:

Stats,

Just as I doubt your name is not stats nor are you a geek....

Alstry is not my real name.  Those that know me in real life and read the blog joke about the Alstry identity.....it's sorta fun because you can be anyone one you want to be......in the end the character is determined by the content and consistency of the blog.

In real life, I would never be as direct as I am with FloridaBuilder....but I doubt FB is such a wussy in real life either.......but I could be wrong........since this is a game and a competition....and we are all trying to help each other and have fun at the same time while going up against the Wall Street establishment......Alstry takes on his own style and personality.  

If exposing the truth offends a few people.....then Alstry will continue to be offensive....that is a consistent trait between Alstry and me in real life.

I make no promises or representations that my beliefs, predictions, or forecasts will come to fruition in whole or in part...I try to provide facts where I can and provide you with my sincere perspective......in the end my score and blogging history speak for the quality of my work.

In real life, my friends are professional athletes, surgeons, corporate CEO's, and people that don't have such financially rewarding careers such as teachers, engineers, and mechanics.....but I can tell you as human beings and friends....their financial success makes no difference in our friendships.....every single one of them that I consider a friend has a character thay plays life at the highest level.

In some careers, facts are a matter of life and death, in others, you make a mistake and the whole world sees it....I have made some doozy of mistakes personally.......I have had to live with the consequences.....but in the end......regardless of whether I won or lost.....I try to play with honor and integrity and work hard to serve those around me.

Alstry's career is that of a blogger.  He charges nothing for the service and is trying to win a compeition.  He has some formidable opponents and characters that hopefully can help him identify investment opportunities and learn a few things along the way.

I am not looking for anything from anyone.....I simply want to win at CAPS and hopefully can provide a bit of insight along the way.

If a little honest trash talking offends a few...it is obvious they have never played compititively at any kind of serious level.

Semper,

If I continue blogging, you will know when I turn bullish.  At this point, I am not there and truly believe we have a lot further down to go.  As far as downside target....it is so far away I am not ready to shoot yet.

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#7) On October 12, 2008 at 2:13 PM, dwot (45.73) wrote:

Astry, fb is a friend.

I am agreeing with semper on the uncertainty.  I think the fundamentals say lower, but I haven't thought it through what the bailouts mean and lots are expecting and looking for a bottom and I can't predict the herd behaviour. 

I've been closing out my picks and opening few.  I suppose in the game an unused pick is the same as cash on the side.

Having made a whole bunch of picks for lower at the bottom of the last rally I am more cautious in my picks.

Fundamentally I tend to think the financials that survive are worth 5-15c of their peak longer term, which I think is where some of them are now.  So, where will the under and over shoot markets for them go? 

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#8) On October 12, 2008 at 2:45 PM, RainierMan (76.55) wrote:

Unemployment during the depression hit about 22 percent, but you have to wonder about the data. Also, how may were employed, but on public works projects, and how many just gave up?

This website, with the depth of opinion and the exchange has been incredibly enlightening to a newbie like myself. I hope all of you keep writing, and I hope you keep the discussion going. There are those of us out here who need to see all sides. You are providing a pretty decent education on investment. I'm pretty floored at how savy some of you are. You also, in your blogs, help others identify sources of information that we were unaware of.

Keep on keep'in on. And play nice; I would hate to see anyone shut down because they are sort of fed up. 

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#9) On October 12, 2008 at 5:28 PM, goldminingXpert (29.46) wrote:

I've turned short-term bullish for the first time since early 2007. Long-term, I'm still bearish, but I will be able to get more puts at ~Dow 10,000.

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#10) On October 12, 2008 at 9:25 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.28) wrote:

Short term Dow Jones at 10 000 is very possible, but as I take my decisions on technical analysis, the main trend on the market is still bearish. A trend is a trend until it is broken.

On the fundamental side, we can see that every rallies we had since the beginning of the bear market have been after an intervention from the government. After each rally, the market went lower few months after. So we could have a rally similiar to the one we had in march-may.

I am still 100% cash as tonight and I am only trading on a very short term horizon right now. I am still not in the mode of taking long term long positions.

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#11) On October 12, 2008 at 9:26 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.28) wrote:

Short term Dow Jones at 10 000 is very possible, but as I take my decisions on technical analysis, the main trend on the market is still bearish. A trend is a trend until it is broken.

On the fundamental side, we can see that every rallies we had since the beginning of the bear market have been after an intervention from the government. After each rally, the market went lower few months after. So we could have a rally similiar to the one we had in march-may.

I am still 100% cash as tonight and I am only trading on a very short term horizon right now. I am still not in the mode of taking long term long positions.

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#12) On October 13, 2008 at 12:33 AM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

Trial lawyer!!!

I just had a vision. John Edwards in drag. Could Alstry be John Edwards alter ego in the financial/economics blog community? 

 

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#13) On October 13, 2008 at 8:21 AM, alstry (35.34) wrote:

Jegr,

There was a time in my life when I was big on couture and image was an issue.  Thank goodness that is over.  Costco is the only way to go today.

For what its worth both the behavior of John McCain and John Edwards for cheating on wives who were either very sick or permenantly disfigured from an auto accident is about as low as one can go.

I am not sure where the drag comes in....sounds like an insult to cross dressers to me.

I stopped litigating as a lawyer many years ago but the skills have proved invaluble.....no place more than poker or reading 10Qs.

Looks like we could have a pop in the market this morning....cheers to all.

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#14) On October 15, 2008 at 12:29 AM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

No pun intended to crossdressers out there. Just wanted to contrast John Edwards interventionist and government can provide and fix all views against yours that seem to come accross as fairly libertarian. I may be misinterpreting your posts though. The trial lawyer thing was just the link.

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