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Being a Bearish, Does not Mean I am Depressed or that I will Eat Bugs…(unless I have to)

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April 21, 2008 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF

I received a call from a relative, who had read my post and believed I was depressed. She was angry that I might be scaring people with my Bearish posts.

FOR THE RECORD  

I am not posting to scare people or shill a stock position. These posts are to bring issues up for education, discussion and entertainment of the Fool community.

MY LONG VIEW

The US economy will change dramatically in the next decade. Many people are planning the next decade like they lived / consumed / spent the previous decade. Those people and those that rely on the largess of a government priograms will be in financial trouble.

REASONS FOR A BEARISH VIEW

1. US Forces in the quagmire of Iraq (ref On War posts)

2. An unsustainable “consumption” based economy

3. An apparently unsustainable “addiction to oil"

4. Super note:

5. The incredible amount of spending and entitlements offered by the government

6. Prolonged wars paid for with debt

7. Systemic problems in the finance community, where the leverage is excessive

8. Massive unchecked migration from the third world to the first world

9. The demographics problem, where the largest segment of the population (baby boomers) expects the smaller segment to support it

10. David Walker’s resignation

11. Jim Rogers is bearish (bullish on China and commodities)

12. Marc Faber is bearish

13. George Soros said this is “worst financial crisis” he has seen in his lifetime (Apr 08). Again?

14. The laughably ridiculous political candidates our two party duopoly is offering us.

15. The levels of corruption that is visible and unchallenged in the financial and political system in the government.

16. Lack of saving of Americans

17. A systemic problem where 40% of the US population is visibly obese.

18. A systemic problem where 50% of all children are born to single parent households. 80% are born to single parent house holds in DC

19. The US has the world’s prison population that costs an average of $55 per person a day to care for. This a systemic problem take look here:

20. Excessive leverage in financial markets. Derivative market is an estimated $500 trillion with $1 trillion in reserves.

21. The “popping” of the housing bubble. The largest “asset” of most Americans is deflating

22. The lack of PHYSICAL WEALTH, most Americans have.

23. The Selling of US assets to Foreigner to sustain spending levels. $290 billion last year.

24. Ethanol, food riots and food export restrictions 

ETC......

So there Mom, are you happy? I explained why I am Bearish, but it does not mean I am unhappy. Happiness is relative. Everyday that goes by that I do not have to eat long pig, bugs, cats or dogs like many in the third world is a good day. I have to much to be thanful for to be depressed...full tank of gas, a couple weeks of food, internet, a blog, 90 groupies?, 10 finger, 10 toes, etc... Anybody that is NOT the tree man should be happy. Seriously....

Some wisdom from Victor Frankl:

 We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread. They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms -- to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way. 

Victor Frankl

Wisdom from Ice Cube: 

Today I didn't even have to use my A.K. I gotta say it was a good day.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 21, 2008 at 5:20 PM, zygnoda (27.21) wrote:

I was hoping you were depressed. ;)   You deserve your skeptic charm...

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#2) On April 21, 2008 at 5:37 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

When Mom is happy all are happy. Give that mom of yours a big hug and kiss. She deserves it. I concur with all of the above. Rock On.

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#3) On April 21, 2008 at 5:58 PM, motleyanimal (90.89) wrote:

This is from my blog. It's my solution for depression. Just in case you need it.

When I get depressed, this what I do.

I have a delicious "Jimmy Dean's Pancake and Sausage on a Stick."

Jimmy Dean's full-flavored sausage inside a sweet pancake covering - it's fun on a stick. Just pop these sweet treats in the microwave for less than 2 minutes and you'll have a hearty breakfast or snack that's not only filling but easy to eat and enjoy. I love these things. I eat one every morning and I'm filled with love and goodness and I see angels and talk in tongues. It's like having a "rapture" in your mouth. You'll drool like a fool.

Oh, and then there are the "Jimmy Dean's Pancake and Sausage on a Stick With Chocolate Chips!" This one is like doing crystal meth, heroin and a fifth of Jack Daniels all at the same time. Except that, and here is the good news ... "YOU DON"T DIE!"


Jimmy Dean is also the chief sponsor of
http://www.happynews.com/index.htm  where there is never any bad news, only happy news!

So I don't know about the bearish stock market.
I only know the happy news!  I'm so happy I could poop sunshine.

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#4) On April 21, 2008 at 6:04 PM, FourthAxis (< 20) wrote:

Damn! One of the best posts ever!  25 good reasons, groupies, nazis, annihilation, the tree man and an Ice Cube quote! 

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#5) On April 21, 2008 at 6:12 PM, MakeItSeven (32.66) wrote:

Everyday that goes by that I do not have to eat long pig, bugs, cats or dogs like many in the third world is a good day.

What is a long pig ?   Is it something like a bamboo chicken ?

Anyway, you forgot clay.

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#6) On April 21, 2008 at 7:03 PM, eskatonic (29.18) wrote:

on 4) super note: 

I spent a few months in SE asia last year and pretty much all the money changers and banks I asked about it said the chinese were behind it.  if you go to SE asia make sure all your franklins are series 2003 or newer or you'll just be carrying them home with you.

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#7) On April 21, 2008 at 7:06 PM, devoish (98.37) wrote:

Abiteracatania,

For the record: I don't think you are a shill.

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#8) On April 21, 2008 at 7:14 PM, a1japb (25.11) wrote:

I could have written that in 1974, things don't ever change. You do underestimate Americas ability to take what it needs, I have travelled much of the world, and let me tell you the US is the place to do business don't sell yourselves short, we tried to open a factory in Mexico what a joke frikken white union, red union you have to chose before you even start up , China is full of communists India is well ... India, Africa fogetaboutit. Europe they get more vacation time than they actually work.

That leaves the USA, a place to make a buck or two every company in the world wants a piece of the pie.

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#9) On April 21, 2008 at 7:48 PM, a1japb (25.11) wrote:

P.S

Thanks for the link and video on my "dollar" post, I coudn;t sleep that night, very disturbing.

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#10) On April 21, 2008 at 7:59 PM, kdakota630 (29.57) wrote:

I largely agree with your views, although I have to tell you that I was perusing your picks, and I think you're going to get hammered on your agriculture red thumbs.

BTW... currently, our ratings are identical, but I'm 3 spots above you. 

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#11) On April 21, 2008 at 9:25 PM, Tastylunch (29.27) wrote:

heh it's kinda funny a lot of people just are uncomfortable with people who say things or truths they don't want to hear, even family. Still It's nice she cares. 

You never struck me as depressed,upset maybe at how stupidly things are playing out (and who wouldn't be if they took the time the time to pay attention), but I don't think depressed people typically crack as many funny quips as you do.

keep on keepin on abitarecatania. 

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#12) On April 21, 2008 at 9:34 PM, dwot (61.86) wrote:

Love the quote...

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#13) On April 21, 2008 at 9:40 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.24) wrote:

I wouldn't say your depressed abi... just depressing ;-)

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#14) On April 21, 2008 at 10:08 PM, lepersinmyhead (25.14) wrote:

Classic post.  One for the ages.  Americans being obese and its consequential burden on the health care system is a pet peeve of mine.  Also, the ridiculous dependence on prisons. Oh well.

 Actually, the most disheartening aspect of American life is that despite all the material goods we have available to us, we have an extremely difficult time actually enjoying life.  

I hope to die with zero money in my brokerage account but a couple pieces of real estate and fantastic art from around the world for my children and grandchildren to enjoy.

If it makes your mother feel better, you have never struck me as exhibiting any signs of depression.  You reach out and communicate with people.  Nice job on the top 25 reasons the next decade is going to look different. 

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#15) On April 21, 2008 at 10:30 PM, abitare (39.81) wrote:

zygzygnoda

         Skeptic amongst the “den of thieves” that are on Wall Street is healthy. J

lquadland10,

WILCO

motleyanimal,

Actually, that is a great idea. No doubt. On Saturday I am cooking it up. I will add it to my Favorites: http://www.happynews.com/index.htm 

FourthAxis

25 good reasons, groupies, nazis, annihilation, the tree man and an Ice Cube quote

I am trying to cover the spectrum of my groupies and appease them by throwing props to leaders they know.

MakeItSeven,

What is a long pig ?

Long pig is you, if zombies break down the door and you are out of ammo. Or if you are in a Third World country and the locals prefer a protein supplement to what can found locally. Or an NFO in a survival situation, you can use his glasses to start a fire

you forgot clay.

Yep, actually here are how you make some mud cookies in Haiti

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/30/whaiti130.xml

eskatonic,

Good reply on the super note. I understand Putin’s body guards were using them to buy booze etc. when they were here last. I cannot find the story.

devoish,

Lol, I will try not to shill, ever. I am only holding 3 stock positions currently. But I have made fun of 1000+

a1japb,

Good reply.

written that in 1974

Similar but different. In 1959 Ayn Rand said the Soviet Union would collapse, she was right, but early. She suspected Alan Greenspan was a communist, whom she called called the “man in black”.

You do underestimate Americas ability to take what it needs,

No doubt. But the world is a very dangerous place, taking from someone can cause blowback. People are smarter and weapons more severe, dangerous, quick and hidden. The US oceans East and West and weaker neighboring states no longer provide the defenses that American optimism would suggest.

I have travelled much of the world, and let me tell you the US is the place to do business

I do not doubt that. I saw a T-shirt- Made in America by Mexicans and Robots.

Your quote is money a Rec to you.

we tried to open a factory in Mexico what a joke frikken white union, red union you have to chose before you even start up , China is full of communists India is well ... India, Africa fogetaboutit. Europe they get more vacation time than they actually work.

I am not a big buyer into the BRIC story. I will write on it later. Check IFN

Thanks for the link and video on my "dollar" post, I coudn;t sleep that night, very disturbing.

Your welcome, fear helps focus. Focus can help resolve challenges. Let me know when you have made steps to protect yourself and your wealth.

kdakota630,

I think you're going to get hammered on your agriculture red thumbs.

Think? You KNOW I am getting HAMMERED. There is something very, very big here, beyond valuation. I was mainly looking at valuation and an extreme run up, plus CNBC shilling made sense to underperform. But this ag run has MAJOR money pushing it. I talked to a farmer today. He said China has been buying gypsum and other raw materials for fertilizer. The money is fleeing the nominal economy, to the real assets. I am paying a price for jumping in front of anything that produces real assets.

I'm 3 spots above you. 

Good work. Keep up and I will steal ideas from you. :)

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#16) On April 21, 2008 at 10:52 PM, abitare (39.81) wrote:

dwot

Thank you. Man Search for Meaning is a must Read. I gave it to a guy who worked for me after he had some major family problems.

floridabuilder,

We will get through it. We may get thinner and drive less, but the sun will come out tomorrow….

 

lepersinmyhead,

Thank you. Recognition of a problem is the first step to fixing a problem.

we have an extremely difficult time actually enjoying life.

Very true. I blame the media and consumerism in part. It was always amazing to see a kid in Africa in absolute poverty supper happy playing soccer with a water bottle. No kidding so poor they were playing with a water bottles, but happy and good natured. It is a cultural phenomenon, happiness is largely a cultural issue.

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#17) On April 23, 2008 at 12:37 AM, FleaBagger (29.74) wrote:

Thanks for the tree man link. Now I will never sleep.

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#18) On May 01, 2008 at 4:26 AM, TheGarcipian (60.53) wrote:

Definitely a post for the ages!  Thanks abita for making me laugh, learn, and think hard, all at the same time. Ahead, they be dragons for sure...

Survival Note for the Depressed: If you find yourself the "long pig" when zombies are breaking down your door and you're out of ammo, find some of that 40% American population that is obese and get behind them. Zombies can only eat so much. Plus you'll be helping out our health care crisis situation at the same time! 

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#19) On May 15, 2008 at 8:27 PM, abitare (39.81) wrote:

flea,

Tylanol PM works for me

TheGarcipian,

Funny 

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