Being a Bearish, Does not Mean I am Depressed or that I will Eat Bugs…(unless I have to)
I received a call from a relative, who had read my post and believed I was depressed. She was angry that I might be scaring people with my Bearish posts.
FOR THE RECORD
I am not posting to scare people or shill a stock position. These posts are to bring issues up for education, discussion and entertainment of the Fool community.
MY LONG VIEW
The US economy will change dramatically in the next decade. Many people are planning the next decade like they lived / consumed / spent the previous decade. Those people and those that rely on the largess of a government priograms will be in financial trouble.
REASONS FOR A BEARISH VIEW
1. US Forces in the quagmire of Iraq (ref On War posts)
2. An unsustainable “consumption” based economy
3. An apparently unsustainable “addiction to oil"
4. Super note:
5. The incredible amount of spending and entitlements offered by the government
6. Prolonged wars paid for with debt
7. Systemic problems in the finance community, where the leverage is excessive
8. Massive unchecked migration from the third world to the first world
9. The demographics problem, where the largest segment of the population (baby boomers) expects the smaller segment to support it
10. David Walker’s resignation
11. Jim Rogers is bearish (bullish on China and commodities)
12. Marc Faber is bearish
13. George Soros said this is “worst financial crisis” he has seen in his lifetime (Apr 08). Again?
14. The laughably ridiculous political candidates our two party duopoly is offering us.
15. The levels of corruption that is visible and unchallenged in the financial and political system in the government.
16. Lack of saving of Americans
17. A systemic problem where 40% of the US population is visibly obese.
18. A systemic problem where 50% of all children are born to single parent households. 80% are born to single parent house holds in DC
19. The US has the world’s prison population that costs an average of $55 per person a day to care for. This a systemic problem take look here:
20. Excessive leverage in financial markets. Derivative market is an estimated $500 trillion with $1 trillion in reserves.
21. The “popping” of the housing bubble. The largest “asset” of most Americans is deflating
22. The lack of PHYSICAL WEALTH, most Americans have.
23. The Selling of US assets to Foreigner to sustain spending levels. $290 billion last year.
24. Ethanol, food riots and food export restrictions
So there Mom, are you happy? I explained why I am Bearish, but it does not mean I am unhappy. Happiness is relative. Everyday that goes by that I do not have to eat long pig, bugs, cats or dogs like many in the third world is a good day. I have to much to be thanful for to be depressed...full tank of gas, a couple weeks of food, internet, a blog, 90 groupies?, 10 finger, 10 toes, etc... Anybody that is NOT the tree man should be happy. Seriously....
Some wisdom from Victor Frankl: We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread. They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms -- to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way.
Wisdom from Ice Cube:
Today I didn't even have to use my A.K. I gotta say it was a good day.