Best and Worst of HG contest?
So with three days left in the Best and Worst of HG contest, I am well out of first place because my accuracy is only 50%. I have 2 more picks that might still go green if I am lucky, but it will probably not be enough to make me a winner anyway. So I wanted to see what first place had picked, and when I checked I found that the player currently in first place had picked 4 outperforms and 2 underperforms. So I looked around a little more and found that many players had violated the contest rules by not choosing 3 outperform, and 3 underperform picks as the rules require. Other players chose to make picks that were not even official HG recommendations. Of the top ten contestants, three violated the rules! I mean whats up with that? Does that kind of thing happen on all of these contests? I am curious about what percentage of players violate contest rules. Is it really 33%? I expect the contest judges are already aware of and will (even without this post) disqualify contestants who violate the rules.
But what also concerns me, is our collective ability to be "investors helping investors beat the market". I mean I know I am currently an Allstar, but I also know I am more lucky than good. 1/3rd of us misread the rules, and luck has me in the top 20%. With this kind of quality we could all go to work for GWB.
Actually though, while that was fun to rant, I think the premise of CAPS is correct. I think the better stock pickers will rise to the top, and my rating will eventually reflect my inexperience. Accuracy will slow my fall as I have closed out alot of winning picks, but eventually better players will probably pass me.
I am guessing that wcwhiner is correct and that right now our scores do not accurately reflect risk. But he should give us more time. When risk happens, they will. The game is only one year old and I think risk is still ahead of us.