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Betting Against Retail



October 05, 2007 – Comments (2)

You'll note, if you check my scorecard, that I have been making a lot of bets against retail. I'm convinced that next week, there will be plenty of ugly news, and ugly reactions, to last months sales. If I'm wrong, I'll make some money in RL. If I'm right, I'll make my points in caps. Hold on tight.

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 08, 2007 at 3:50 AM, fnu149 (< 20) wrote:

Hi tmfbent,

 Just want to introduce myself.  I see you have a good prediction betting against consumer spending from this point.  I kind of agree to that.  I recently get more active on so decided to write you a comment.  This is a very good site for people to share ideas.  Anyway, I think the US market is quite unrealistic now.   The depth of the subprime problem is greatly being disregarded.   The market is thinking that what takes some good years to build up this housing problem can really take few months to factor in?   And dow jones hit record high w/ all these bad news.   To be rational, i don't think this make sense at all.   BTW, what main factors lead you think retail will get bad?

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#2) On October 08, 2007 at 8:19 PM, TMFBent (99.19) wrote:

I think people are going to feel less wealthy because their homes don't work as equity ATMs anymore -- in addition to the fact that housing and mortgage-industry layoff will directly hit a lot of paychecks. In the short term at least, I think we'll see some reduced spending, and that usually spooks Wall Street around comps time.

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