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Beyond the Technicals



June 22, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: XRTX.DL , KH.DL , LIN.DL


Here are some possible swing trades I am watching.  Swing trades, for me, are trades that can have a portfolio duration of as little as a week, to a much as a few months.  I enter the positions after 1.)  I have filtered ( screen ) based on fundamentals, 2.) Have analyze the Chart for solid Technical Patterns.  I will usually remain in these positions until the technicals give me a reason to sell or they have reached a price target.

XRTX - Fundamental highlights -  No Debt, P/E below 6, Cash Per Share of approx $4, EPS estimate @ 1.59 next year.     XRTX has sold of significantly after a less than bullish forecast on their January and April earnings conf. calls, although both quarters they delivered strong results.  At this point this trade becomes a value  ( potential buyout target ) and growth play with technicals to support an recovery bounce from these levels.   Target $10.75-$ 11.


Here's the Trade Setup for XRTX

MDF - Fundamental Highlights - Small Cap profitable. 2011 EPS est. $.80!! Sales growth of + 15%, low Debt with Debt/Eg = .01, Approx 1.20 Cash/sh.   MDF has also just announced plans to repurchase 25 million shares of its common stock on the open market.  Target $6.

Here's the Trade Setup for MDF

KH - Not a Pure Chinese Play as you might think at first glance. They have a substantial diversified international revenue base. No Debt, approx $3 cash/sh, and Earnings expected to grow at +25% for next 5 years.  They are positioned internationally in the fast growing specialty medical instruments area.  According to their CEO  "We  are experiencing significant growth across all product segments and all markets, driven by the solid uptake of our spine products and robust international sales"

Here's the Trade Setup for KH.

TVL -  Profitable with PE approx 7,   EPS growth appox 10%, Cash/sh = .50.  TVL becomes an interest play as they are in the process of converting to a hybrid digital media outlet.  In the 2 years since the launch of this initiative their Digital Revenues have gone from 0 to appox 20% of total revenue.  Forecast Digital Revenue growth is expected to exceed 30%/yr.  What also makes this interesting is that has recently receive a private buyout offer.  Speculation could drive money in TVL as they are in the process of aligning part of their business model with that of HULU's.

Here's the Trade Setup for TVL.


APRI - High Flyer, Small Cap Bio-Tech -Expected to be profitable next year.  Sales growth of approx 20% of past 5 years.  Insiders have increase their percentage of ownership from 3% of total outstanding shares to 10% in the past year.  According to their CEO " "Our current cash reserves should take us to the second half of 2012. We also expect to be cash flow positive by the end of 2011." Further, he points out, the Company's first drug, Vitaros(R) for erectile dysfunction, is FDA approved and is very close to market, with a 12 product-candidate pipeline behind it."

Here's the Trade Setup for APRI


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