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Varchild2008 (84.27)

Biggest RALLY in U.S. History Tomorrow?

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July 12, 2010 – Comments (21)

Varchild2008 is sticking his head out.....

Since it is obvious the market is headed up because it should be after the shockingly solid earnings picture from a "usual earnings miss stock" in ALCOA today, then I am sticking my head out.

PREPARE FOR THE LARGEST STOCK MARKET 1-DAY RALLY IN U.S. HISTORY TOMORROW!!!!

Ring in the 2010 election season tomorrow with 1 whallop of a rally...

Why do I predict his exactly?

ALCOA has said that ALL 3 SECTORS of its business:

A) Packaging

B) Construction

C) Commercial Auto

Created its excellent 22% rise in sales!

Of course.....  There's 1 obvous CAVEAT.....

ALCOA produced these sales figures in large part due to the ALUMINUM pricing falling off a cliff.
If your favorite 2011 model Truck suddenly is 25% cheaper to purchase and you are thinking of buying a truck..... you are no longer just THINKING about it anymore.

When prices drop......  STUFF finally gets bought.....  

So there is 1 CAVEAT.....  The BEARS could just short the heck out of any rally tomorrow on the grounds that this was a PRICING story and not an ECONOMIC RECOVERY story....

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeellllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

I believe they are solidly wrong..... and whatever stock is getting pummeled hardest by the WRONG-BUTT  Short sellers... I would buy buy buy buy......

Fact is....  The Federal Government can fall a-part but the bottom line is Private Business even under the WORST REGIME in U.S. HISTORY for Private Business always finds a way....

OIL MORATORIUM???? 6 MONTHS?????   No Biggee... Just pack up your RIG and set sail to EGYPT.

What ever damage OBAMA wroughts on the U.S. Private Secotor.... The Companies respond to it by finding business elsewhere in the World!

And that has been going on at record pace over the past 2 to 2.5 years.  We are in the midst of a SECERT SENSATIONAL  BULL MARKET ECONOMY tucked behind an Anti-Business, Anti-Economic Presidency and Regime and Government in Congress....

It's like putting TARP over your favorite Sports car.....  The TARP looks ugly.... but eventually when the TARP gets pulled off the vehicle... WOW!!!!!!

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 12, 2010 at 7:49 PM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Its hard to argue against you, because the market is irrational from time to time you very well be right....

 

But you really think that a 1 penny beat on an estimate that only recently was adjusted below the final value is that much of a cause for celebration?

 

Heres a time history that Yahoo gave me:

 

EPS Trends  Current Qtr.
Current Estimate   0.12

7 Days Ago           0.14

30 Days Ago         0.17

60 Days Ago         0.19

90 Days Ago         0.23

When I look at that table I can't help but think about the following video clip....

 

 

 

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#2) On July 12, 2010 at 8:01 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

it will be green tomorrow ,no more than 6o up. there is no volume and only dummies go all in after 5 up days and there aren't enough dummies with enough quarters left to make it happen

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#3) On July 12, 2010 at 8:02 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

wed. market red like china!

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#4) On July 12, 2010 at 8:05 PM, Superdrol (97.81) wrote:

If you want to take Alcoa long, I'll take the short position and sell it to you.

 

 

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#5) On July 12, 2010 at 8:13 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

no mo cash for clunkers for aa. car sales down may bottom line econ is slowing no more govt cheese and everyone is still unemployed but not counted cause benefits gone bye bye

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#6) On July 12, 2010 at 8:27 PM, dragonLZ (99.39) wrote:

AA is a great stock. Easy money for people willing to go long...

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#7) On July 12, 2010 at 8:37 PM, Superdrol (97.81) wrote:

Alcoa largely is a pretty lousy company.  Several years ago when aluminum prices were skyrocketing they actually lost money because they did not properly hedge their energy correctly.

 

 

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#8) On July 12, 2010 at 8:42 PM, blesto (31.92) wrote:

Possible , but don't lose yer head.

" target="_self">self beheading

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#9) On July 12, 2010 at 8:54 PM, Momentum21 (98.31) wrote:

You might get call of the year with this...the AA relief rally!

accelerating volume, short covering and oversold conditions...BP caps the well for good measure.

Like Emeril would say...bam! : )

I have no idea but it will be very fun for me if it happens.  

 

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#10) On July 12, 2010 at 8:57 PM, ChrisGraley (31.61) wrote:

Aluminum could cure cancer and Alcoa still wouldn't lead a market rally.

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#11) On July 12, 2010 at 9:05 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

+1 for post #10. I literally laughed out loud when I read that.

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#12) On July 12, 2010 at 9:16 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

Chris, Agreed.  Alcoa is a disappointment as a stock.  It has gone nowhere for 15 years.  I do not expect tomorrow, or any other day, to change this.  Sure it went up when a building bubble existed and everyone was buying cars every 3 years... but that was not "real" from a fundamental perspective.  It is also not returning any time soon.

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#13) On July 12, 2010 at 9:47 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Aluminum is a terrible business to be in right now, metal price is falling and production costs increasing.  Alcoa has been a poorly managed company.  They have done a lot of cost cutting to improve the balance sheet but their latest earnings were poor even if they didn't miss on the analyst expectations.  However the price to book is about .89, so it is not a terrible deal if you are prepared to hold it for awhile.

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#14) On July 12, 2010 at 9:52 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

 OMG, jim cramer says time to get bullish in the stock market because aa. ha ha ha. I feel conspiracy theory with obama here telling cramer to get all his sheep back into the ring for slaughter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#15) On July 12, 2010 at 10:00 PM, dragonLZ (99.39) wrote:

Aluminum could cure cancer and Alcoa still wouldn't lead a market rally.

Cure for cancer is most likely good just as a cure for cancer. Aluminum, however, is used for beer and soda cans, foil wrappings, bottle tops,...

Cure for cancer will probably have dozens of serious side effects, while aluminum has no side effects whatsoever (other than recent health worries linking aluminum to Alzheimer's disease).

I'll make sure I remind you of your (wrong) statement when AA hits $20 (then again when it hits $30), which will happen sooner rather than later (and $20 will happen sooner than $30).

 

Alcoa is a disappointment as a stock.  It has gone nowhere for 15 years.

What do you mean? Alcoa went from $40 to $6 in 2008. Is that nowhere for you???

p.s.

I'll make sure I remind you...(see above)...

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#16) On July 12, 2010 at 10:10 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Since I own some AA, I am personally praying for a sudden increase in the demand for tinfoil hats, lol.

 

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#17) On July 12, 2010 at 10:20 PM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

"Since it is obvious the market is headed up because it should be after the shockingly solid earnings picture from a "usual earnings miss stock" in ALCOA today, then I am sticking my head out."

As brickcityman had already pointed out, AA only managed this 1 cent beat after earnings had been tremendously lowered precipitously over the past three months from 23 to 12 cents. Alcoa's earnings of 13 cents/share were 43% lower than estimates three months ago. Had AA reported last week, they would have missed estimates by a cent. Sequentially they were up a mere three cents. Woohoo! My sarcasm must be palpable...

"ALCOA produced these sales figures in large part due to the ALUMINUM pricing falling off a cliff."

The averaged realized price of aluminum was up 39%. In the year earlier period aluminum prices plunged by nearly half, according to the WSJ. Debunked sir.

AA managed this modest 1 cent beat of 13 cents after $400 billion of the stimulus has been spent, and the fed funds rate at 0 for over--a record--17 months.  A business under the influence of such economic forces should be seeing earnings skyrocket. If this is all AA can muster in this easy-profit economic environment how will they fare when stimulus is withdrawn and interest rates begin to climb?

This post is riddled with naivete...

-1 rec. 

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704288204575363351856085256.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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#18) On July 12, 2010 at 10:29 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

slight of hand ,just like the  recent bank stress tests ha ha what a joke they are SOOOOOO TRYING to get INVESTORS back in this suckers rally cause the govt is broke,wall street is broke and they want bagholders now to make money.People are still burning from 2008 and the recent flash crash and shy away from the stock market.Nobody is in and nobody to steal from so they are making crap up with b.s. try to be positive earnings

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#19) On July 13, 2010 at 1:04 AM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

Futures are negative at the moment... doesn't look like it will be the biggest rally in us history tomorrow.  It actually looks set to be pretty ordinary and lackluster.

 I read an article in WSJ today on how people prefer "hyped up" estimates as they make them feel the predictor is more "confident".  Not sure I agree. 

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#20) On July 13, 2010 at 10:59 AM, SamTheHobbit (30.79) wrote:

Nice call so far, but I would like at least another 300 points to really be impressed. DJI up 132 in the morning.

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#21) On July 13, 2010 at 4:25 PM, Momentum21 (98.31) wrote:

No complaints about today...and I am willing to grant you an extension until tomorrow... : )

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