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portefeuille (98.32)

biopharmaceuticals EXEL



July 04, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: EXEL

I might make EXEL shares a "2% of my portfolio" position next week. That would probably make it the 4th largest, so maybe it is a good idea to wrote a post about Exelixis, mostly to convince myself that adding to my position is a good idea.

zzlangerhans wrote this.


Exelixis (EXEL) - market cap 531M, share price 4.89. Cash 153M, debt 76M, burn 25-45M. The most heavily green-thumbed baby biotech in CAPS is also one of the most frustrating. Exelixis has been around more than ten years and the share price has been below 5 for about 5% of that time. I won't get into the extremely complex and wide pipeline, but suffice it to say that a lot of trials are going on and positive or negative catalysts could occur at any time. Dilution is always a possibility. However, nothing about Exelixis's current position indicates that they should be significantly undervalued compared to their historical valuation. Green-thumbers are a virtual CAPS All-Star team, including Vanamonde, Eldrehad, NTMF, SpecBear(!), and Portefeuille although admittedly most of those picks are ancient and deeply under water. I see this as a GBMB buy under 4.5.


(from here)

and this in comment #10 to that post.


3000 shares bought yesterday at 3.69. Yum.


12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 04, 2010 at 1:04 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

The most recent EXEL "pitch" by zzlangerhans is here.

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#2) On July 04, 2010 at 1:10 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:






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#3) On July 04, 2010 at 1:21 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

my currently largest psoitions from the "biopharmaceuticals" sector are (ordered by current value of the position).

QIA:GR (QGEN) - Qiagen (around 1% of the portfolio),
ITMN - InterMune (around 0.5% of the portfolio),

IBB - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund,

BAYN:GR - Bayer,
FOLD - Amicus,
CRME - Cardiome,
EXEL - Exelixis,
ANDS - Anadys Pharmaceuticals,
SQNM - Sequenom,
LXRX - Lexicon,
ARIA - Ariad.

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#4) On July 04, 2010 at 1:43 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:



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#5) On July 04, 2010 at 1:44 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

burn 25-45M

that is per quarter by the way ...

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#6) On July 04, 2010 at 2:01 PM, portefeuille (98.32) wrote:

a chart of the NASDAQ biotech index I posted here. The index "turned down" more or less at the upper dashed line. It will "decisively" break that line in the next few months. I think ...





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#7) On July 05, 2010 at 2:01 PM, ibitegirls (< 20) wrote:

thank you for the charts!

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#8) On July 09, 2010 at 3:04 PM, wolfhounds (33.05) wrote:

I do agree with your analysis. I initially bought over 2 years ago knowing it would be a wait until the company delivered. Using the last oppurtunity I bought 20 Nov 5 calls @.25. A cheap way to play possible events over the 4 months.

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#9) On August 13, 2010 at 12:04 PM, Momentum21 (97.35) wrote:

Picked up some EXEL here at 2.90 with my FOLD proceeds. Improving earnings, decent cash on hand and a good amount of negativity baked in for XL184. 

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#10) On August 26, 2010 at 11:07 AM, Momentum21 (97.35) wrote:

According to the filings, Exelixis Chairman Stelios Papadopoulos bought 200,000 shares of his company's stock on Aug. 24 for $610,220. CFO Frank Karbe is listed as buying 16,500 shares for $49,165.

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#11) On August 26, 2010 at 11:55 AM, 1337172979 wrote:

I saw today  Nov 4 calls @.15, that's 50% discount with respect to its price few days ago, a bargain. Will buy some. Any idea of catalysts, binary events, conferences, etc...prior to Nov. 20?

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#12) On September 03, 2010 at 5:23 PM, Momentum22 (28.94) wrote:

I wish they all delivered 31% in 2 weeks...I don't have a huge position but I am happy nonetheless... 

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