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portefeuille (99.65)

biopharmaceuticals ITMN

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May 04, 2010 – Comments (35)

I think it might be a good idea to buy a few ITMN shares in extended or regular trading. It is currently at around 10.48 USD.

35 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 04, 2010 at 7:36 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

InterMune Receives FDA Complete Response Letter on Esbriet(TM) (Pirfenidone) New Drug Application

FDA rejects InterMune lung drug, shares fall

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#2) On May 04, 2010 at 7:37 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

 it could turn out to be dndndeja vu! 

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#3) On May 04, 2010 at 7:41 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:



enlarge

 



enlarge

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#4) On May 04, 2010 at 7:51 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

timmmmmmmmmmmmbbbbbbbeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrr   at least thats what all the short basher a holes are saying on yahoo message boards even a youtube video of a giant tree falling!

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#5) On May 04, 2010 at 7:55 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

And more proof that biotechs are generally a very bad investment....

UltraLong

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#6) On May 04, 2010 at 8:02 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

it's my understanding for quick gains but you have to gamble and buy low and in my opinion it will crawl back to almost where it was yesterday just might take 1-2 years so that makes it speculative but at these ah prices whynot throw a few bucks in it as a sitngolong 

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#7) On May 04, 2010 at 8:14 PM, BlackshearFund (< 20) wrote:

Why this one in particular port?

I noticed your "fund" was buying into it during afterhours at around 9.5ish.

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#8) On May 04, 2010 at 9:06 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

These are the ITMN trades for my "fund" (see here).

bought 1200 at 23.34 on 03/08/10,
sold 700 at 38.96 on 03/17/10,
sold 200 at 45.51 on 03/08/10,
bought 1200 at 9.90 on 05/04/10.

I think it has a good chance of "rebounding" a little. Maybe they can simply use the data from the Phase 3 study that was conducted in Japan by Shionogii, who knows.

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#9) On May 04, 2010 at 9:10 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

And they are still more or less alone in the field, at least in the part of the field that is somewhat close to the goalline after the failed trial by Actelion.

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#10) On May 04, 2010 at 9:15 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

I noticed your "fund" was buying into it during afterhours at around 9.5ish.

I think I have around 0.2 readers per "fund" post comment. So the chances are pretty low that anyone else noticed it, hehe. That is more or less why I decided to write this post. I am going to add a "pitch" as well.

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#11) On May 04, 2010 at 9:18 PM, BlackshearFund (< 20) wrote:

You considering getting some at open tomrrow for your Real life portfolio after the margin's ding?

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#12) On May 04, 2010 at 9:18 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

around 0.2 readers per "fund" post comment.

i.e. my estimate for the average number of readers of an individual comment to one of my "fund" posts is 0.2.

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#13) On May 04, 2010 at 9:20 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

You considering getting some at open tomrrow for your Real life portfolio

yes, I think I will buy some, probably tomorrow.

after the margin's ding?

margin's ding?

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#14) On May 04, 2010 at 9:23 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

sold 200 at 45.51 on 03/08/10

sold 200 at 45.51 on 03/25/10

that comes from using too much copy&paste in the early morning ...

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#15) On May 04, 2010 at 9:38 PM, BlackshearFund (< 20) wrote:

@ #13 

I was under the impression that people on margin who blew up there accounts would be forced to cover first thing in the morning?

Are you setting a limit for tomorrow or are you taking a wait and see attitude?

And I think more people read your fund posts than you think - they just don't comment hah. 

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#16) On May 04, 2010 at 9:46 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

Well the "fund" is doing alright, I think I could do a little better, I just don't know how ...

-----------

performance: +4.56%,
cash: -293556.41.

S&P 500 index: +3.09%,
NASDAQ index: +4.21%,
Russell 2000 index: +6.57%,
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM): -1.71%,
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU): -3.21%,
NASDAQ biotech index: +1.77%.

-----------

I think a fair/proper benchmark would be something like 1/4 S&P 500 index, 1/4 NASDAQ biotech index, 1/2 Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US and 1/8 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, or something like that. The Russell 2000 index is a little weird, almost as queer as the Dow Jones index. I think it is useless for "benchmarking" purposes.

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#17) On May 04, 2010 at 9:48 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

1/2

3/8

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#18) On May 04, 2010 at 10:01 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

wow - you guys have some guts messing around with all these biotechs...i love it...stock goes down 80%; and you are talking about buying tomorrow morning..

 \port - are you buying tomorrow at the open....will you not buy if it hits a certain price level?

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#19) On May 04, 2010 at 10:04 PM, BlackshearFund (< 20) wrote:

Ditto NYCFOOLIO's question.

Do you have a specific range that you want to see or that you set you buy limit to?

Are you looking for a 20% bounce or holding it longer term?   

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#20) On May 04, 2010 at 10:15 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

Shionogii

Shionogi

 

That is getting a little scary, thinking that people somehow "follow" those trades and might tell me next year how much they lost, hehe ...

It is just an innocent idea to buy a few shares tomorrow. But don't "mess with biotech companies" unless you at least to some degree know what you are doing (and what they are doing).

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On February 24, 2010 at 10:50 PM, zzlangerhans (99.46) wrote:

...

Stay away from this sector unless you're willing to do due diligence to the third degree. Small cap biotech eats investors for breakfast.

-----------

(from comment #15 here)

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#21) On May 04, 2010 at 10:46 PM, DarkToast (49.79) wrote:

I think ITMN bombing is going to rock the whole bio tech sector, the way that DNDN did but not as hard and in reverse.

I think Port is right that buying some ITMN is a good idea right now. Less than intelligent investors were shorting it at $12, $11, $10.

 Biotechs are dangerous little bastards. I am in POZN, and it lost 30% after gaining FDA approval.

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#22) On May 05, 2010 at 12:42 AM, alexxlea (52.30) wrote:

I'm going to lose my house.

I'm ruined.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding rofllmao biotechs suck my bioballs. Have a nice day everyone.

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#23) On May 05, 2010 at 12:49 AM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewBlog.aspx?t=01008014497619256705

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#24) On May 05, 2010 at 4:48 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

portefeuille - I don't think I've ever mentioned this, but your charts are the nicest posted on the Fool. Thanks for all the hard work making them available. And being able to enlarge them is great for tired old eyes like mine.

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#25) On May 05, 2010 at 5:56 PM, DarkToast (49.79) wrote:

Nice quick 15% play, well done.

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#26) On May 06, 2010 at 12:51 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

#24 I updated that figure (see this post).

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#27) On May 06, 2010 at 10:47 AM, PDTBiotech (88.86) wrote:

Good call here.  I had been tracking this in comparison to DNDN's 2007 buttkicking to get a bead on which puts to pick up, but I guess it might have been worth looking at the aftermath as well.

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#28) On May 06, 2010 at 10:58 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

whats your thinking on it going back 2 40 bucks again?

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#29) On May 06, 2010 at 10:58 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

#27 - so you like the longer term potential of ITMN? thanks

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#30) On May 06, 2010 at 11:03 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

hey did you notice my number 2 post!

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#31) On May 06, 2010 at 11:07 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

uh  oh dndn is about to drop below 50 it is a buy here for a 3-5 bucks again soon from right now price 1107am

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#32) On May 06, 2010 at 2:47 PM, PDTBiotech (88.86) wrote:

My thoughts on ITMN:

*If they get within striking distance again (PDUFA date) the stock will peak and you'll have another opportunity to make (or lose) a lot in one fell swoop.  I don't know about FDA allowing use of the Shionogi data, which would speed things up a ton, but my guess is it won't happen.  Don't assume there isn't more downside here, if ITMN tries to get that data allowed and FDA won't let them they'll probably take another hit.

*As portefeuille has demonstrated, there was money to be made on the long side after the crash.  Whether or not there's any left going forward I don't know, but I would point out that DNDN didn't hit its low between the rejection in 2007 and the big price spike last year until shortly before the price spike.

*If I owned it would I hold now? Nope.  I'd put that money to work elsewhere and keep a close eye on ITMN.  Even after data is announced/PDUFA scheduled there will be an opportunity to play the decision.

Regarding DNDN:

*It's very difficult to value right now.  The company and investors have hyped the hell out of it, but now the question is whether docs/patients will like it or not.  The trials were done in the healthiest possible patient pool for that indication, and the drug is likely to see use in much sicker patients in practice.  If it doesn't show a benefit in the patients they're actually treating docs will dismiss it.   BioCryst is a recent example of this, they hyped their flu drug way up in the face of the pig flu scare in mid-2009, but once there was more clarity on how often the drug would actually be used it became clear that they would never make enough money to justify the inflated share price.  That's not to say it won't be successful, just that it's probably nowhere near as certain to be a blockbuster as the company/investors/analysts have touted it to be.

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#33) On December 17, 2010 at 8:55 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

I just added 200 ITMN shares (now 400 shares in my portfolio (see this post)).

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#34) On December 17, 2010 at 2:10 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

sold 100 ITMN shares at 34.90 USD (now a 2.7% position (300 shares)).

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#35) On December 17, 2010 at 2:22 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

continued here.

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