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Biotech experts- OREX, VVUS

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July 07, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: OREX , VVUS

This is for anyone who is a biotech expert or trades biotech companies.  There are a lot of call options for VVUS in Sept.

 

I am familiar with Vivus's drug Qnexa, but not Orexigen's.  One of Qnexa's ingredients is already being utilized phentermine (Adipex-P).  Not familiar with Orexigen.  Anyways, just curious on ppl's take on these anti-obesity drugs looming FDA approval.  I normally do not trade biotech, but these drugs being that obesity is a chronic issue throughout the world have potential if approved.

 

My hang up is that if Qnexa (Vivus's drug) gets denied, it will be for side effects and risks vs. effectiveness.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 07, 2010 at 10:20 AM, Superdrol (97.58) wrote:

any takers on this ?

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#2) On July 07, 2010 at 2:14 PM, stockunfool (< 20) wrote:

There are three biotechs worth investigating... VVUS (Qnexa) OREX (Contrave) and ARNA (Lorcaserin) It really is just speculation as to what will happen with each. It seems as if Qnexa is the strongest of the meds, but with higher side effects. Lorcaserin seems to be the weakest but with very low side effects. Contrave seems to sit in the middle. The Qnexa FDA advisory meeting takes place July 15th, so its a bit of a risk if you want to grab some shares before then (but no guts no glory too) What I like about Lorcaserin's chances are that is falls in the FDA range of a diet drug definition and its side effects seem non existant just about.. Check out the discountinue rates for test patients here http://www.lorcaserindietpill.com/

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#3) On July 07, 2010 at 3:48 PM, Superdrol (97.58) wrote:

What's your opinion on Contrave ?  Qnexa already has Adipex's active ingredient which is phentermine.  People already take that as a standalone.

 

I don't doubt Qnexa's effectiveness, however; I think it might fail due to side effects vs. efficiency.

 

The options market are pricing in a bullish call, however; I think the opposite will happen.  Weightloss drugs in particular have always had the odds against them.  If it is approved it could be a knockout, but if it is not the stock will drop by 40-50%

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#4) On July 07, 2010 at 6:34 PM, stockunfool (< 20) wrote:

My opinion on Contrave... To be honest I think it has a slight edge over Qnexa in being approved. But it is such a toss up. If Qnexa get a "good" review on July 15th, then I say Contrave gets approved. If Qnexa is voted like 9-2 against or something than I say Contrave is not approved.  However if Qnexa is voted 5-6 for or against... then hold your breath, it could go either way... It really is a role of the dice until we hear more on Qnexa July 15th.

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#5) On July 07, 2010 at 6:54 PM, Superdrol (97.58) wrote:

The options market has insane implied volatility packed into them.  400%+

This stock can easily move 50%+ off the news.

 

I'll have to think about this one.  I'm more interested in Qnexa vs. Contrave.  As I said before, I don't doubt Qnexa's efficiency, but more of the safety/side effects which may prohibit getting approval which makes me somewhat bearish.

 

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#6) On July 07, 2010 at 6:54 PM, Superdrol (97.58) wrote:

The options market has insane implied volatility packed into them.  400%+

This stock can easily move 50%+ off the news.

 

I'll have to think about this one.  I'm more interested in Qnexa vs. Contrave.  As I said before, I don't doubt Qnexa's efficiency, but more of the safety/side effects which may prohibit getting approval which makes me somewhat bearish.

 

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