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portefeuille (99.56)

biotech

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February 25, 2010 – Comments (26)

okay, okay, you won (but it seems that no one has requested headlines in a few months, so maybe we can call it a draw ...).

The "..." headline does have some advantages and I think I will keep giving it to the posts I am mostly directing at myself. They are much easier to ignore and I do have at least one blog post that I want to add a comment to quite "frequently" (this one).

So the headline for this post I posted a few hours ago might have been something like "a biotech recommendation" (I already hate the idea. headlines are so arbitrary!).

 

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 25, 2010 at 2:58 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I think I will in the next few weeks write some "pitches" for some biotech stocks I have made "outperform" calls on. They will be pretty bad but maybe they will at least make me finally read all those books and articles I have wanted to read for quite a while now.

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#2) On February 25, 2010 at 3:45 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.75) wrote:

***

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#3) On February 25, 2010 at 7:10 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

It may be arbitrary at times, but it's a lot better than "..."  I tried to follow multiple blog posts of yours in the past, but I gave up because it's impossible to distinguish them. 

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#4) On February 25, 2010 at 10:07 AM, ChrisGraley (30.23) wrote:

rec for the headline

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#5) On February 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM, zzlangerhans (99.73) wrote:

I'm looking forward to seeing your thoughts. Most of the biotech "analysis" that gets posted here is either a bug-eyed pump or a blanket "biotech sucks". It's lonely here in the middle ground. I'm going to try and review your blog on Anadys tonight if my brain is still functioning after my shift, otherwise this weekend. My initial feeling after seeing the data is that the stock should be allowed to "mature" for a few weeks and will likely trend downward. There's too many good buys out there now to risk money on quicksand like Anadys. I agree with most of your choices, especially MYGN and XOMA. Also check out DSCO - primed for another resurgence after the latest dilution. I just bought 10000 shares.

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#6) On February 25, 2010 at 10:13 AM, lemoneater (79.32) wrote:

I thought that you were endeavoring to heighten the mystery. What is the meaning of "..." Titles are easy for me--writing something of investing value is harder!

The only biotech stock I have is EMITF. Besides Real Estate and medical imaging the company invests in Gamida Cell. http://www.gamida-cell.com/. The source of the cells used in research is not embryos so I can invest without going against my conscience on that topic. Medical advances are fascinating, but the one caveat I have is that ethics doesn't always keep pace with biotech research and applications. Of course ethics doesn't keep pace with a lot of industries, banking for instance!

 

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#7) On February 25, 2010 at 11:32 AM, TigerPack1 (99.01) wrote:

STOP THE PRESSES.  This is the first post with a subject name!!!! LOL

Here are some ideas I put on your churning for accuracy post:

"This churning of picks for better accuracy has a solution.

I have mentioned this idea many time before to the CAPS people - they can use another statistic that they already keep to combat such a strategy.

CAPS should include "points per pick" as a third scoring category.  I would rather listen to someone that has 50% accuracy on 100 picks, but the "average" of those picks is +40% vs. the S&P 500!!!!

When measured against many of the leaders that have 80%+ accuracy, on thousands of picks earning +2% or +3% for the average points per pick, what use is that person???  If I must pay commissions and taxes on hundreds of trades, my relative performance would not be very good in my brokerage account, especially considering the effort that would be required.  After considering these facts, +2% or +3% would effectively create the same real world gains as a passive S&P 500 return.

If someone can create 10+ point gains, over and over, on thousands of picks, with high accuracy, such a person would be more useful to listen to, in my humble opinion.

Points per pick, is one of the most important indicators of smarts I review in other player scores.  If this idea were put into the total CAPS rank calculation, it would serve as a punishment for churning strategies only done to pump accuracy.

My recommended weighting would be 50% total points, 25% accuracy, 25% points per pick... If CAPS ran a beta test of this setup, I think they would also find that a better list of stock pickers would be generated for readers.

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#8) On February 25, 2010 at 11:33 AM, rofgile (99.33) wrote:

The only biotech stock I own is GILD.  Its a good one because they are the world leaders in HIV treatments far above everyone else - and there are a large number of people and countries benefitting from their drugs.  They had some setbacks with cardiovascular drug acquisitions that failed late stage in trials this last year.  In the future, they'll be making very excellent drugs that treat cystic fibrosis - their pipeline for these is fantastic and has excellent ideas (from the perspective of a bio-person). They've got a lot of spare cash, and have the highest earnings / employees ratio of all my investments.

 -Rof

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#9) On February 25, 2010 at 11:55 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I agree with most of your choices, especially MYGN and XOMA. Also check out DSCO

DSCO somehow got stuck on my list #2 ...

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#23) On September 05, 2009 at 10:42 AM, portefeuille (99.95) wrote: DSCO - 0.49 - outperform (high risk!)

#28) On September 11, 2009 at 7:56 PM, portefeuille (99.95) wrote: DSCO - end outperform - 0.86 - new rating: market perform

#80) On February 19, 2010 at 9:10 AM, portefeuille (99.95) wrote: DSCO - end market perform - 0.5398 - new rating: outperform (high risk!)

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It is currently at around $0.5334.

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#10) On February 25, 2010 at 12:17 PM, topsecret10 (22.11) wrote:

#5) On February 25, 2010 at 10:09 AM, zzlangerhans (99.60) wrote:     . It's lonely here in the middle ground. I'm going to try and review your blog on Anadys tonight if my brain is still functioning after my shift, otherwise this weekend. My initial feeling after seeing the data is that the stock should be allowed to "mature" for a few weeks and will likely trend downward......                                        Anadys Pharmaceuticals Inc  2/25/2010
NASDAQ:ANDS
 Smart Trend Alert Price: $1.92
Last price: $1.91..............   Downtrend            TS

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#11) On February 25, 2010 at 12:24 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

this post I posted a few hours ago

ANDS is the stock that post is about.

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#12) On February 25, 2010 at 12:32 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

CAPS should include "points per pick" as a third scoring category.

Yes, I have suggested the same thing and added the request to somehow "annualise" it (not quite as "straightforward" as it might appear).

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#13) On February 25, 2010 at 12:37 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

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#14) On February 25, 2010 at 12:38 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.96) wrote:

Most of the biotech "analysis" that gets posted here is either a bug-eyed pump or a blanket "biotech sucks".

That's because investing in clinical stage biotechs with no drug is more of a gamble than roulette at the casino. How can you base an investing decision on a few clinical studies which in all cases look "promising"...especially with only 1-3 drugs often in their pipeline. The chance of finding a winner is like finding a needle in a haystack. If you bought them all, you'd wind up with maybe 1 winner in 30 over the long-term and those odds are just not in your favor. 

As a generazliation biotechs do suck because I'm convinced they suck more wealth out of the average investor than any other sector. Me, I'm more than happy to wait for a drug to be approved and come to market, miss the initial run-up and lock in gains.

And don't even get me started with the company who's drug comes to market and they STILL can't turn a profit...cough cough Human Genome Sciences....

UltraLong

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#15) On February 25, 2010 at 12:52 PM, topsecret10 (22.11) wrote:

#11) On February 25, 2010 at 12:24 PM, portefeuille (99.95) wrotethis post I posted a few hours ago ANDS is the stock that post is about.       Thanks for the link Port....  missed this post.  The Smartrend alert above Is purely on technicals,seems like very Interesting company going forward....    TS

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#16) On February 25, 2010 at 1:00 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

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#17) On February 25, 2010 at 1:06 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

in a few months

for a few months

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#18) On February 25, 2010 at 1:08 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

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#19) On February 25, 2010 at 2:00 PM, zzlangerhans (99.73) wrote:

@ #14 - if only you were correct that biotech stocks fail predictably, I'd have retired long ago. Unfortunately I would have lost my shirt shorting stocks that flew to the moon for no apparent reason. There's a lot of pain that comes with playing biotech which is why it's mostly a CAPS game for me. I'm much more judicious about real life investments although I still get burned quite often - recently on MIPI and BDSI. But my gains on GTXI, MYGN, and ALKS among others have put me well ahead over the last year. Definitely not for everyone's taste, but I believe if he does the research an objective investor can make biotech work for him.

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#20) On February 25, 2010 at 10:16 PM, topsecret10 (22.11) wrote:

 Any thoughts......   http://www.advancedcell.com/          TS

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#21) On February 25, 2010 at 10:21 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

any thoughts - yes - weird

 

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#22) On February 25, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

any thoughts - yes - weird

 

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#23) On February 28, 2010 at 9:13 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

a trend line for the S&P 500 index (see this post).



enlarge

 

update.



enlarge

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#24) On February 28, 2010 at 9:20 AM, Roto1177 (78.99) wrote:

Port- love your analysis on bio- I enjoy the simple way you put things. Do you have any thoughts on Mike Harvilla? I got turned on to this stock by him (accp) and am not sure if he knows his stuff or a glorified pumper? I know you are busy and appreciate your thoughts..Thanks!

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#25) On February 28, 2010 at 10:08 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

No, not all that busy. It is a sleepy Sunday afternoon here.

Judging from his appearance here he is probably not the best source for biotech analysis.

I highly recommend reading the articles by Feuerstein here. And the blog posts by zzlangerhans I linked to comment #818 here. That would be a good start. And from there I guess there is no way you can skip the "general reading" part.

For company specific information presentations / conference calls are usually a good starting point (a strongly biased one of course ...).

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#26) On March 02, 2010 at 2:16 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



enlarge

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