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RUMBLINstrflame (< 20)

BLACK BOX ROYAL RUMBLE! - 1 month review

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January 03, 2010 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: CHNGQ , TWGP , ESV

After a month of the BLACK BOX ROYAL RUMBLE! between anticitrade, drZ, tasty and myself, I'm firmly in last place.  But it's not all bad news.  My 100 spots dedicated to green thumbs have returned an average +5.28 points of outperformance.  So measuring solely by green thumbs I would be in third place, fairly close behind most of anticitrade's accounts and tasty, but ahead of drZ.

Of course the flip side is that my red thumbs are performing hellaciously, with an average score of -7.03. My least favorite companies in my least favorite sectors like media, airlines, automotive, capital markets and real estate have been on an absolute tear over the last month.  But I still stick by a lot of these negative views, on CAPS and in a few real life short positions.

Rebalancing this month turned over about 25% of the portfolio.  This was probably higher than normal because the functionality of the CAPS screener was damaged by the recent cosmetic change.  Short interest no longer works, nor do negative numbers in many of the fields. (I sent TMF a message on this a couple of weeks ago and suggest you do the same.)

So far, 8 of the top 11 performing green thumbs have been Chinese small caps.  Most of these high performers got too pricey for my screen, so had to be ended this month. But I continue to be overweight what I see as the cheapest Chinese small caps.  Other areas my screen sees as cheap include healthcare/pharma/biotech, food/agriculture, and energy.

In general I'm fairly comfortable with the companies the screening process is spitting out.  But I see one problem - many solid oil & gas companies have reported big writedowns or unrepresentative operating losses over the past year. I am not really sold on red thumbs on DNR, YPF, CLR, DVN, UPL, SM and RRC but the good news is they will drop off quickly whenever these companies return to their former profitability.

We will see if anyone can challenge anticitrade over the next 5 months.  I know their team has put a lot of thought and effort into developing their models which seem to be working great so far. When I have time I would really like to get into mechanical modeling as well.

Good luck everyone.  And now, let's RUMBLE into 2010.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 03, 2010 at 8:51 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

I have portfolios in this....lets see.....

The measures can be wildly varying depending on the strategy deployed.....

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#2) On January 03, 2010 at 8:59 PM, RUMBLINstrflame (< 20) wrote:

You're RUMBLINac I guess?  Do you have other portfolios?  Is that one even a mechanical investment strategy, because it doesn't look like it.

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#3) On January 03, 2010 at 9:06 PM, portefeuille10 (98.31) wrote:

the players.

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#4) On January 03, 2010 at 9:16 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

anticitrade, anticitrademix, anticitrademix2, anticitradeshort, rumblinantall, rumblinantdc, rumblinantfool, rumblinantliquid, rumblinantnodcf, rumblinantstanda.

So 10 "anticitrade players" now?

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#5) On January 03, 2010 at 9:57 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

No Streetflame.....it is.....its got a huge sector bet on Technicals - I dont know why I did that .....

I have another one - where I intend to do one or 2 picks - so it'll probably never surface - unless it has 100% accuracy and 10+ avg score.

I intend to use rumblinac - ruthlessly - ie trade in - trade out and multiple strategies - all mech or TA based. Hence I do not think it'll succeed in MF terms - because it will most possibly have low accuracy due to holding.

 Hans....all BB players will have the rumblin - prefix

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#6) On January 04, 2010 at 1:17 AM, Tastylunch (29.25) wrote:

I ahve a feeling I'm going to get worked by you guys. Ijust threw a portup so that  Anticitrade wouldn't be alone. :)

I'm already considering launching a new port, but man entering all those picks took forever

I think your experience streetflame is valiadtion for my personal practice in mRLP to neer short hevaily in a rising market..

anchak

BB is all about points, so it's cool man.

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#7) On January 05, 2010 at 12:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.53) wrote:

It looks like drZ is on fire today.

As of 12:45 p.m., up 218 points, with today's second best being rumblinantdc up 60 points.

However, all Anticitrade portfolios still have at least 50% more points than the second best. Amazing job, Anti. I'm very, very impressed.

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#8) On January 05, 2010 at 4:09 PM, anticitrade (99.61) wrote:

The only anticitrade accounts that are relavent to the rumblin competion are:

rumblinantall, rumblinantdc, rumblinantfool, rumblinantliquid, rumblinantnodcf, rumblinantstanda

The anticitrademix, anticitrademix2 and anticitradeshort were all previous failed attempts at using my system for red thumbs.  I still have not given up on this yet....

That said, I think it's fairly obvious that if I DID include red thumbs in my portfolios I would have a significantly poorer standing amongst the group.  

These portfolios have done MUCH better than I expected.  I am philosophically opposed to my rublinantliquid portfolio but it seems to be doing well.  Its actually kind of suspicious to me that all these portfolios are doing so well, I am going to find out how much overlap we are getting between them and report it soon.

I find the best way to insert picks into caps is:

Copy the column of tickers from my model sorted in order of best to worst pick, then use paste special to transpose it.  Copy the transposed version and paste it into notepad.  Copy the space between two tickers and paste it into the "find and replace" function, then replace it with ", ".  Then replace all spaces.

Then copy two rows of tickers at a time and paste them into the caps pick box and submit.  Since only about 50% of my tickers are pickable, I have to rinse and repeat this for WAY LONGER THAN SHOULD BE REQUIRED. 

Thats the best way I have found so far.  Still, very time consuming.

Anyway, I think its great that so many are participating!  I am trying to decide if I will update my picks or just let them ride...  Ironically, generating the lists of tickers is trivial compared to ending and starting new picks.

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