BLACK BOX ROYAL RUMBLE! - 1 month review
After a month of the BLACK BOX ROYAL RUMBLE! between anticitrade, drZ, tasty and myself, I'm firmly in last place. But it's not all bad news. My 100 spots dedicated to green thumbs have returned an average +5.28 points of outperformance. So measuring solely by green thumbs I would be in third place, fairly close behind most of anticitrade's accounts and tasty, but ahead of drZ.
Of course the flip side is that my red thumbs are performing hellaciously, with an average score of -7.03. My least favorite companies in my least favorite sectors like media, airlines, automotive, capital markets and real estate have been on an absolute tear over the last month. But I still stick by a lot of these negative views, on CAPS and in a few real life short positions.
Rebalancing this month turned over about 25% of the portfolio. This was probably higher than normal because the functionality of the CAPS screener was damaged by the recent cosmetic change. Short interest no longer works, nor do negative numbers in many of the fields. (I sent TMF a message on this a couple of weeks ago and suggest you do the same.)
So far, 8 of the top 11 performing green thumbs have been Chinese small caps. Most of these high performers got too pricey for my screen, so had to be ended this month. But I continue to be overweight what I see as the cheapest Chinese small caps. Other areas my screen sees as cheap include healthcare/pharma/biotech, food/agriculture, and energy.
In general I'm fairly comfortable with the companies the screening process is spitting out. But I see one problem - many solid oil & gas companies have reported big writedowns or unrepresentative operating losses over the past year. I am not really sold on red thumbs on DNR, YPF, CLR, DVN, UPL, SM and RRC but the good news is they will drop off quickly whenever these companies return to their former profitability.
We will see if anyone can challenge anticitrade over the next 5 months. I know their team has put a lot of thought and effort into developing their models which seem to be working great so far. When I have time I would really like to get into mechanical modeling as well.
Good luck everyone. And now, let's RUMBLE into 2010.