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HarryCarysGhost (99.78)

BLASPHEMY!!!

Recs

13

April 08, 2011 – Comments (29) | RELATED TICKERS: BRK-B

Fellow Fools,

Today I come to you with a very controversial and radical idea. For those weak of heart I recommend not reading this. Actually, I think I can predict how the comments will go after posting.

#1. SINNER!!!

#2. Harry, I had to claw my eyes out after reading this.

#3. BURN HIM!!! 

#4. The burning hot sumner Sun, is near.

please buy our cwappy merkendise.

thonsand delight await.

#5 It's the Democrats fault.

#6 it's the Republicans fault.

#7 My cat's breath smells like cat food.

Ok, here goes- lately I've been thinking about selling Berkshire Hathaway.

(A Thunderous BOOOOO!!! comes from the crowd)

#8 HEY JACKWAD!!! WHY DON'T YOU JUST SPIT ON APPLE PIE AND KICK A PUPPY WHILE YOUR AT IT!

Please, Ladies and Gentleman.

I implore you, throw down thy stones and hear me out-

Don't get me wrong I still think Berkshire is probably the best run Company out there, but I have my own specific reasons to think that the share price might go down sometime in the near future.

(a) I've been of the mindset that stocks are somewhat pricey right now, and I expect somewhat of a correction, not a crash mind you just down to a level where I would consider stocks cheap again. In this scenario BRK would take a considerable hit

My Mayan Calander points to 2012, but I hope I'm wrong since I'll be up considerably in an ever climbing market. Never a bad idea to PREPARE!!! though.

(b) As far as I know Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger are not immortal (I would'nt put it past them, maybe a deal was made down by the crossroads). So succession plans come very much into play. The whole Sokol debacle somewhat tarnished Berkshires reputation.

Again the share price would take a hit.

(c) I would be more inclined to ride any waves that I see on the horizon if I were getting a dividend, but I'm not so it just feels like I'm investing on blind faith.

My plan all along was to buy shares after the split, and buy more in the event of Mr Buffett being relieved of his post. Lately I've been rethinking my stance and feel that my money would be better off placed in a drip. I guess the reason I feel conflicted is the first book I read on investing was The Warren Buffett Way, and much of my limited knowledge of investing is derived from him.

The drip I would pick is W.B fav KO.

But if anyone out there has a favorite shout it out. Also I thought I remember that you need to own one share of coke in your own name before you can enroll in a drip.

Welp that's all folks, I hope this post was thought provoking and more importantly amuseing ; )

Rock On!

29 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 08, 2011 at 11:52 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

I would definitely sell BRK if I owned it.

I agree with your reasons (although Buffett could live to see 100)

I think the most important reasons to sell are

1) Its not the type of company you want to own during an expansion...its too many staples, so the money flow goes towards industrials, not insurance and dairy queen

2) Most importantly, he said from his own friggin mouth that the "bounty days are over for berkshire" because its now too large to grow much.  What other company in the world could have a CEO say that their company has peaked without the stock price getting pummelled?

Also, his investment decisions have been pretty bad in the last few years

The sokol thing is blown out of proportion IMO.  Why would he be desperate to help his friend make $20m and risk his reputation meanwhile he donated billions to chairty...he could have just not donated anything

I disagree with your dividend thing though.  I would rather have buffett reinvest the earnins than myself

I don't like KO here either.  Its already huge (not always bad, but not a plus), and again it is not good during economic recoveries.

IMO if you want to buy a "blue chip" you are better off just buying some SPY.

My favorite companies right now are STD, MHS, PM

If you are looking to replace brk with a "blue chip" I would go with PM.  My favorite stock ever.  If they want to increase profits they just raise the price.  They dont have to spend much on R&D or advertising, and their product costs nothing to make, and their competition is miniscule, and their product is addicting, and they have the best cash flow in the world...does it get any better than that?

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#2) On April 09, 2011 at 12:08 AM, tenmouths (< 20) wrote:

Being new here, the only think I will point out is that you do not need to own a share of KO before enrolling in their DRiP. Theirs is a direct stock purchase plan, so you can buy the shares you need to enroll directly from the company.

Computershare is their transfer agent. See https://www-us.computershare.com/investor/plans/planslist.asp?planid=165&state=eStateDisplayPlanSummary

 I own other DRiPs that are administered by Computershare, which is why I know. :-)

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#3) On April 09, 2011 at 12:32 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Also, his investment decisions have been pretty bad in the last few years

I don't know about that man, his investments in GE, and GS preffered at a gauraunteed 10% return is an investment I would take.

And I think the rail road bet will pay off in the long run, but it seems to me that W.B is trying to set up the company so his successor can't screw things up, rather then growing the company so we are in total agreement on that point.

I disagree with your dividend thing though.  I would rather have buffett reinvest the earnins than myself

I would'nt be reinvesting the earnings, I would just let compound interest work it's magic.

I'll take a look at PM but if I were to pick a death company it would probably be MO.

How would buying SPY help me if I think there might be a downturn?

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#4) On April 09, 2011 at 12:44 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

If you are expecting a downturn you want cash not KO

If he paid a dividend, the book value would be lowered, so him reinvesting the dividends into more investments would also compound your investment

Why would you take MO over PM? PM = international.  China growth > american growth in cigs, and foreign regulation is a lot less strict than american cig regulation

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#5) On April 09, 2011 at 1:03 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Thanks tenmouths, I was going from two decades back. They were with moodys if I remember correctlly and that was the rule at that time.

I'll send some E-mails to investor relations when I decide for sure.

Oh! since your new here the most important thing I can tell you is pay close attention to your acuraccy and don't close picks until there 5 points in the green.

Cheers. 

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#6) On April 09, 2011 at 1:27 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

The second most important thing to watch is my score slowly getting better than Harrys by the end of september ;)

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#7) On April 09, 2011 at 1:33 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

If you are expecting a downturn you want cash not KO

Very true.

But I tend to think of it more in the sense that I'll be compounding that cash through the divi. If Mr Market decides to go down I'll pick up more shares which given Cokes price action that would be a buy below $50. You can't actually believe a buck will be worth a buck in 2012. So siiting in cash would be a waste of time in that scenario.

I'm sure theres another short term trade for this but I was thinking more for the long haul.

I picked Mo over PM since I think the share price will move up into the $30's pretty soon. Last I checked the yield was pretty close.  

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#8) On April 09, 2011 at 1:35 AM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

John, ck your budge. Sorry, just got it.

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#9) On April 09, 2011 at 1:39 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Valyooo- 982

HarryCarysGhost -661

And that's all I have to say on that matter.

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#10) On April 09, 2011 at 2:15 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

That is what we call a lagging indicator

The buffett thing to do would be to buy treasuries if you expect a correction and then sell them and buy equities when they are cheap enough

STD has an 8.4% dividend

KO is definitely not bad, I just think there are better places for you rmoney, and I think Pm is the best stock ever

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#11) On April 09, 2011 at 8:33 AM, outoffocus (24.51) wrote:

My cats breath smells like dog food.

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#12) On April 09, 2011 at 9:48 AM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

Its the Tea Party's fault!

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#13) On April 09, 2011 at 10:47 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Starfirenv- message recieved. Good stuff man.

outoffocus- LOL!

Valyooo - I took a closer look at all of the stocks mentioned above.

From a price standpoint (charting, very unBuffett like but I can't invest like him so I learned long ago to come up with my own style) the one that screams buy to me right now is STD. I think I would use that more as a trade .

And I'm not really comfortable with the thought of owning your STD ;)

MO has a yield of 6.90% but I tend to be distrustful of them. (mainly because they hooked me on their product. If I can ever quit for good I will be buying this stock with the money saved. Seventh time's the charm)

I can see why you dig PM 4.90 yield solid company. On my watchlist for a possible pullback.

With KO I've just always loved this company solid management, iconic brand.

Your not old enough to remember this but I remember new coke. My Father bought 100 shares during that fiasco and has done quite well with it. When I had some money in High school he set me up with a drip in KO. It did really well for me, split once, but of course I blew it (stupid, stupid,stupid)

So that's why I tend to gravitate toward KO. 

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#14) On April 09, 2011 at 11:03 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

OneLegged- Good point :)

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#15) On April 09, 2011 at 5:13 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

I find it somewhat ironic (and somewhat scay) that a post titled Blasphemy resulted in my six- hundreth and sixty- sixth blog rec.

All I can say is somebody else please rec this :)

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#16) On April 09, 2011 at 9:48 PM, outoffocus (24.51) wrote:

On the upside you got 7 recs on your 77th blog (777) so that cancels that out right?

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#17) On April 10, 2011 at 1:36 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

outoffocus- thanks I feel better now.

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#18) On April 10, 2011 at 6:06 PM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

Yeah STD is ridiculously good.  I dont even know much about the company. What I do know is they are at book value with a 8.4% yield or somewhere around there.  They have a lot of EM exposure, but they get beaten up on bad spain news (so there are lots of cheap entry points).  They were the only spanish bank not to get downgraded.  The yield curve is wide. They are acquiring a crapload of other banks.

Eventually I will do more DD but that was enough for me to buy

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#19) On April 10, 2011 at 9:32 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

I dont even know much about the company.

I'd like to buy the world a coke.

In perfect harmony.

Coca-cola.

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#20) On April 10, 2011 at 10:53 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Thanks to whomever gave me the eigth rec.

I really did'nt want to start a new week with that on my head. 

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#21) On April 10, 2011 at 10:53 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Thanks to whomever gave me the eigth rec.

I really did'nt want to start a new week with that on my head. 

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#22) On April 10, 2011 at 10:58 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

I also sold a pretty good chunk of BRKB about 6 weeks ago. Just wanted to free up some cash. Bought some PM actually but not a lot, it's up 7% or so. Also bought some GD after the crash in  one of their tests the stock dropped 5% or so for a chance to pick up a little.

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#23) On April 11, 2011 at 1:23 AM, Valyooo (99.82) wrote:

Harry,

When you buy stock directly from the company, do they sell it out of treasury stock and dilute shareholders or what?

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#24) On April 11, 2011 at 2:11 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

soycapital-

were in the same boat, I could'nt bring myself to sell out. See you in Omaha.

 Valyooo-

Good question man, I'm not sure.

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#25) On April 11, 2011 at 1:23 PM, mtf00l (48.59) wrote:

As long as everyone is confessing, the only reason I bought BRK-B was the party and the discounts and yes it was after the split.  I still haven't recovered the purchase price and suspect I never will, however the "perks" are nice.

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#26) On April 11, 2011 at 10:27 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

mtf00l-

I think you'll recover your share price. Might have to wait a year or two or tree.

 

My thinking was that I was'nt comfortable having BRK as my 3rd largest holding.

So I moved it down to fifth. But I will definetly hold the remaining shares for the rest of my life.

Gotta dig those perks : ) 

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#27) On April 12, 2011 at 3:49 PM, mtf00l (48.59) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,

See you in Omaha! =D

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#28) On April 19, 2011 at 7:30 PM, blesto (31.11) wrote:

HarryCarysGhost,  I gave you the thirteenth rec. Hope that doesn't jinx you.

mtf00l  Are you really going to Omaha for the BRK annual meeting?

If so, make sure you make the Motley Fool's meet and greet. I believe it's at the Liberty Tavern patio at the Hilton Omaha from 6 to 8 p.m. on Saturday, April 30. Official Fools Tom Jacobs, Joe Magyer, Rich Greifner, Andy Louis-Charles, and Alex Pape will be hanging out there.

 

 

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#29) On April 20, 2011 at 8:07 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Ha,Ha!

No Triskaidekaphobia here my man.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirteenth_floor

Actually, the trip sixes did'nt bother me either. Just thought it was ironic, and worth noting.

Cheers.

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