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abitare (99.33)

Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression (We knew it was coming)

Recs

9

June 26, 2008 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS , RWM

FYI - Bloomberg.com U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending Dow to Worst June Since Depression

This is not news to many in the CAPS community. Community intelligence does work, but NOT if you ignore it.

The Top Fool is SPECBEAR. Look at his stock picks!

How many bearish posts has the Top Five Bloggers on CAPS posted?

Three of the Top Five Bloggers are very Bearsish. (dwot, alstry and I). dwot is in cash (was?), I am 80% short, 20% cash. Look at our portfolios! FB made most of his points on the housing collapse. Alstry is 24X7 bear reporting.

Almost my posts in April are Bearish:

On 21 April 07, I gave 24+ reasons to be bearish (20 Recs).

Being a Bearish, Does not Mean I am Depressed or that I will Eat Bugs…(unless I have to)

30 Dec 07 Post (14 Recs):

Predictions 2008: S&P Falls 25%, Chinesse Mkt Falls 40%, Ron Paul Wins Presidency, Oil $175 etc...

Top Fool dwot's Comments on my post:

#3) On December 30, 2007 at 9:26 PM, dwot wrote:

Interesting that you think the Chinese market falls 40% and the US only 25% by comparison...

I think they both fall, but I think the Chinese market manages to pick itself up faster and better.

My only Post in Oct 07:

Call me a "bear". I have been called worse by nicer people then you!

On April 13, 2008:

12 Ways To Prepare For The Next Great Depression

On April 23, 2008:
Economics 101: The Skyscraper Curse and “7) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer”


Top Fool Demondoug has been posted many bearish comments. The Top Fools that have been long, are generally long commodities, especially oil. The US is built on CHEAP oil. High OIL is not good for the US economy.

Compared to "billionaire money manager" Ken Fisher we are Geniuses, take a read of what Mr Fisher is telling people here:

From my June 23, 2008 FIN 101: Spotting Gurus, Paid Liars, Fools and Cheerleaders(Part 3): Ken Fisher

"You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now

Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and that inventories are lower than six months ago? We're accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board."


- Kenneth L. Fisher
Forbes, 02.26.07

Recommendations: Buy Pulte, Toll, Beazer

Quote of the Day: Housing Boom!

Housing Boom!
Kenneth L. Fisher
Forbes, 02.26.07, 12:00 AM ET
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0226/110.html

"Data-mine all you want. You're not going to find a credible cause-and-effect relationship between oil and stocks.

Have you allowed yourself to be scared out of the stock market by high oil prices? If you have, you're making a big mistake. You are falling prey to a media myth. It's fascinating how often the media get away with a story claiming X causes Y when an abundance of statistical evidence exists to disprove the connection. It is routine now to see stories blaming a drop in stock prices on a rise in oil prices. Don't believe these stories. There's no connection between the two."

Source:
Stop Fretting About Oil
Kenneth L. Fisher, Portfolio Strategy
Forbes, 08.15.05, 12:00 AM ET
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/0815/102.html

Stop Blaming Oil!
Barry L. Ritholtz
Monday, June 27, 2005
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/stop_blami......

“Call me what you will. Debt is good."

Learning To Love Debt

By Kenneth L. Fisher

May 1, 2007

 1, 2007

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 26, 2008 at 8:09 PM, DemonDoug (98.88) wrote:

7 out of the top 10 fools have the skeptic charm.  The other three are as you say big on energy and oil.

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#2) On June 26, 2008 at 8:18 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

And to think that this is just the 2nd inning. Do you have a garden yet? Mine is doing good. Sold some gold today in real life and am using the houses money again. Buy second hand, pay cash,if you don't have the cash do without. The skull and cross bones group has done their job well. Are we bankrupt yet, comptroller quit and said in 2057 we go bankrupt. Do we think it is now? I do. Who owns our debt? China. Who has our jobs? China.  What do we have? Trillions of dollars of debt. What can we export? Coal. Ah, isn't that part of our land even if we could use it to fuel our homes? Where does it go? CHINA. Desil fuel $1.00 more a gal then regular that truckers use is being sold to who? China.  Welcome to the North American Union and the Amero. 1776 yet ?

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#3) On June 26, 2008 at 8:28 PM, abitare (99.33) wrote:

DD,

Good point. I could have written you in more, but the longer my posts the less they tend to be read. The skeptic charm is a good point.

lquadland10,

Good call on the garden. No doubt food it going up in ocsts. N.A.U. and war hopefully not.  

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#4) On June 26, 2008 at 9:34 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Do you think if ........... we crash and burn then Ron Paul will make it as President? I don't want ww3 but......... well I don't know. I will wait for after the Olymipcs to see what China does. Iran. n. korea also. Thinks are to funky now.

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#5) On June 26, 2008 at 10:05 PM, Imperial1964 (97.88) wrote:

My only comment about the market today was "Holy crap.  S&P under 1300 and I haven't done any research in months."

I said back in December that I was putting my (new) money into cash until the S&P hit 1250, and then I'd start thinking about buying.  And I'll start buying heavily when it hits 1100.

Unfortunately, I have been too busy to do any research and will not be able to for another 3 months or so.  Oh well, we've got to be due for another bear-market rally before too long, so maybe I've still got time.

And now to brag a little, my personal portfolio is up since August, but only 3%.  (That was 6% yesterday).

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#6) On June 26, 2008 at 10:19 PM, abitare (99.33) wrote:

lquadland10,

Ron Paul is lucky he is not going to be President. This next guy is going to be overwhelmed. And he will be able to nothing about it. The FED has kept rates at 2%. It is not stopping the market fall.

Imperial1964,

I do not think there is anything wrong with making a bottom call. I said S&P down 25% oil to $175 (although it is  in a bubble). I think the US market can fall a lot further if Obama is going to raise capitial gains. Also the Japanesse market declined for 18 years. The US market did not recover for 30 after the 1930 sell off.  The NASDAQ has not recovered in 8 years.

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#7) On June 26, 2008 at 11:57 PM, garyb52 (< 20) wrote:

I've tried shorting the market before, but it always backfires on me. Every time, a disaster!  I just can't seem to get the timing right. But I admire those who can do it well.

I'll just have to keep searching for those stocks that I think will do well in this difficult environment.

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#8) On June 27, 2008 at 6:50 AM, abitare (99.33) wrote:

garyb52,

I use ETFs to short. I own SKF and SRS. I like them below $100. I like RWM, UDN, FXP also.  

In a Bear market 80% of stocks will come down, good luck finding the 20%. I would rather be in cash, backed by gold or another currency (ref Everbank). 

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