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Bob Toll's Dirty Little Secret????

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September 05, 2008 – Comments (0)

Bob Toll dumped 1.5 million shares a few weeks ago.  Was Bob Toll dumping houses cheap just to make revenues look strong this quarter?????

"FY 2008 third-quarter gross contracts of $588.1 million and 1,007 homes..."

Remember, when liquidating a spec home it counts as both an order and a delivery in the same quarter.  So it appears that average order price of homes in Q3 was about $580K.  Based on a low cancellation rate, it seems like Toll dumped a lot of specs this quarter that were standing from prior cancellations.  Spec dumping tends to lower cancellation rates.

However,

"The Company projects it will deliver between 850 and 1,050 home in FY 2008's fourth quarter with an average price of between $640,000 and $650,000 per home."

Many of the homes the company projects to deliver in Q4 were orders taken many months ago.  With prices crashing between then and now.....it seems likely that many will cancel due to appraisals coming in too low or buyers simply backing out.  Toll mentioned on the CC this was a problem in some markets.

Based on Toll selling a huge number of shares a few weeks ago, he seems to know something....maybe we will know it too next quarter.

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