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Bond Rally Over



April 24, 2008 – Comments (1)

Last blog I wrote in the last paragraph:

"Currently I think there are significant numbers of investors sitting on the side watch, allow access to cheap money for now as people are more concerned about return of capital then return on capital.  But, I suspect the money will move to other investments at some point and then the debt crisis is truly appreciated."

Maybe early, but according to MarketBeat blog:

"In trading Thursday, the yield on the two-year Treasury note poked back above the federal-funds target of 2.25%, something that’s rarely happened in the past three years. Furthermore, the two-year note’s yield of late is higher than the expected federal-funds rate six months from now, a dramatic reversal from a trend that has persisted since March 2005."

Let the rate games begin... 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 24, 2008 at 2:31 PM, mandrake66 (67.48) wrote:

Yes, the games indeed. Many will interpret this as a bullish sign, because stocks and bonds tend to move inversely. As stock prices rise in a strong economy, bond prices fall and interest rates rise. The interest rates rise because there is competition for available credit on the borrower side, and the lenders demand a better return since they have lots of other options.

If people look at the current situation and say "look, rates are rising, we must be recovering" this will be a joke. Rates will rise because the dollar has crashed, with the economy only likely to worsen. Welcome back, stagflation.

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