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Bottom Calling

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October 29, 2008 – Comments (7)

Market ticker gives some things to think about in terms of bottom calling...

If anyone is watching my game playing strategy you might notice I simply haven't been making picks.  That is probably because althought it was obvious to me that the market was very bubbled, right now it seems more a craps shoot market, and one where valuation is tougher.

 

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 29, 2008 at 10:51 AM, paintjockey (< 20) wrote:

Agreed, I still make picks but am holding off  actually aquiring stocks. Market is giving me sea sickness. Up and down and up and down....I think we are just about to the end of it and by spring, we can call an end to the down turn

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#2) On October 29, 2008 at 12:58 PM, Tastylunch (29.50) wrote:

True, but I do think shopping mall REITS are a pretty safe redthumb. Many are highly leveraged, they can't get new credit and they are bleeding tenants.

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#3) On October 29, 2008 at 1:00 PM, adventurerneil (< 20) wrote:

Kind of hard to imagine stocks staying at these levels or trending lower for another year, but that's what history seems to dictate. I still doubt we're going into depression part deux, but all this bearish sentiment by top Fools definitely is tempering my greedy edge. Thanks for the link.

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#4) On October 29, 2008 at 1:26 PM, QualityPicks (22.91) wrote:

Wow. I think I could have written that blog, word by word, that is EXACTLY my opinion. Scary :)

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#5) On October 29, 2008 at 1:26 PM, jcrash (99.60) wrote:

GDP decreased by over 30% during the depression. I think that is possible in a manufacturing economy, but I just don't see it in a service-based economy.

I don't see Dow 12,000 anytime soon, but 10,000 wouldn't surprise me one bit, as there actually are values to be had out there.

 

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#6) On October 29, 2008 at 1:53 PM, Harold71 (20.56) wrote:

GDP decreased by over 30% during the depression. I think that is possible in a manufacturing economy, but I just don't see it in a service-based economy.

I agree.  I think real GDP could decrease by 50 percent this time. 

This service based economy is over 70% based on consumption?  Seriously.  This is not an economy.  It is a complete farce based on borrowing and spending.  That ability to borrow and consume is still just beginning to collapse.  We've got big adjustments ahead, huge changes in society in general, and the gov't slowing the process isn't helping anything.

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#7) On November 12, 2008 at 9:07 PM, milpo (52.87) wrote:

Unless you are less than 65 years of age, you had better be trading.  Average life expectance of 72 years, That gives you 7 years to benefit from your hold.  This market is certainly crashing DWOT and never  feel guilty about your thumbs down approach.  If it is backed by real  dollars, then would you consider a microloan or peertopeer loan so that I will be able to feed my children and grandchildren. 

However,  I do not believe  the descent will be uniform.  If you are able to hold your positions for about 7 years, please retire early and  if you need a personal chauffeur, please look me up.

But if you do not have at least 7 years to hold,  consider trading.

How  do you do this?  I have no idea.

Best wishes,

Milpo

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