May 08, 2012
– Comments (13) |
RELATED TICKERS: JAGGD
@1.49 today. This selloff is a wee bit overdone.
Whats your price target?
Agreed that it is a good entry price for its gold resources.
It could go lower still since the valuation of the whole PM is insanely low. In a long run it can still get bought out, if the management still doesn't know how to make a profit on $1600/oz gold.
Valyooo: Honestly, I am not really sure. I wouldn't mind somebody taking me out at $2.50-4 in a takeover (obviously higher is better, but I am a realist). I wouldn't mind holding a year as well and seeing what happens. JAG's in the ground assets are worth more than $1.50/share, so stock goes higher if any of the following occur ... new competent management (not holding my breath), higher price of gold (possible), recovery in sentiment in gold mining sector (quite possible), favorable arrangement with creditors to extend debt beyond 2013 (hard to read the possibility of this as an outsider).
As best as I can tell, I only lose money with a 6-12 month hold period if none of the above happen. It is a speculative bet for sure, but there are quite a few ways for me to win. I like the setup. I'll be annoyed if I don't sell above $2.25/share, though obviously $3 (a double) would be fun!
Longer analysis ... more words, Yay ;) ... here
Found your article before I checked back in to your blog....good stuff. I added some gas yesteday at $1.51, I'm glad to see the 4 Million shares traded already today is giving me some cushion. I shouldn't be surprised at the breadth/variety of investors, but to see that much negative vibe on your comments on JAG at $1.50 seems out of hand. When people are bitter, they are bitter! I'm not clear what the part of owing half the $50 Mil cash to the Brazillians is concerning. I guess I don't dig as deep as I should when I see what I consider an oversell.
Overall, that they couldn't shop this one at $8 per share to 3-4 interested parties doesn't mean one of them wouldn't add it to their reserves at half that, bank it and forget about it until prices spike again or they need the output.
Good luck on your call, appreciate your thoughts and your candidness! ;)
Is it me, or is everybody on Seeking alpha a d!ck?
Every article I ever read is followed by 500 comments of "youre an idiot and youre wrong"
Great call on the timing.
Thanks TSIF and Valyooo. Yeah, the tone and amount of negative comments surprised me -- usually bullish articles generate enthusiasm or at least mixed reactions. Investor sentiment really is at amazingly low depths for Jaguar. Gives us nice fuel for a rebound rally though -- if everyone has already sold (or shorted) Jaguar, who is left to add any more selling pressure?
if everyone has already sold (or shorted) Jaguar, who is left to add any more selling pressure?
I always used to say this, but I stopped to think about it a week ago, and it makes no sense. Who did they sell to? Buyers. So if everybody already sold that means everybody always bought. Cant have a seller without a buyer right?
Short visioned traders Valyooo looking for pennies quickly evne if they take small losses. Or anyone who can't handle 3-5% cycles from here.....we need some holders with 7 Million shares traded today who still thinks "long" is greater than a week...or even a day!! ;)
Can't have a seller without a buyer, but there are different types/grades of buyers....institutional holding is generally a good thing, but not likley here.
Any thoughts on other current deep value speculative stocks versus JAG?
Specifically: TC, ACI, MEA, FSLR, AUDC, HEK? All mined from fellow Fools, and looking interesting to me. Maybe some puts on stupid AOL, heh....
Based on the longer-term views, I'm liking ECA for div-growth possibilities (yield on cost, anyone?), FSLR for a pie-in-the-sky type evaluation, and TC for dirt-cheap metal speculation...
JAG, In at $1.08, 12-18 mo hold. ~85% haircut from 52 wk high.
JAG, Round 2- Double down at $.78.