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gmXmkttiming (28.23)

Bought crash puts that expire tomorrow...

Recs

21

January 15, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: IWM , SPY , TWM

820 on the S&P futures should not have breached. It did. We are attempting to make a double bottom If it fails, and the probability of that is rising... we're going sub-800 by tomorrow in all likelihood and a retest of 740 is highly probable. That said, be very cautious. If you're short, you can still let stuff run but know a save off 820 explosive, but if 820 goes down conclusively, you're going to see a 7xx print today, and well, that probably won't be good for your account balance if you aren't hedged. I'm now net mildly short (if we crash, delta on my puts ramps and I make a good chunk of coin.) but mostly I'm in cash until we get a clear technical signal.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 15, 2009 at 1:06 PM, kdakota630 (99.93) wrote:

Keep up the great blogs, gmXmktting!

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#2) On January 15, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Ph1sh55 (31.97) wrote:

looks like S&P trying to make a stand at 820 level..I'm actually playing TNA here for bounce, with a tight stop below, should we breach 820.

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#3) On January 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM, herztical (28.85) wrote:

We made a nice tech bouce off of 820 (so far); but we did break it so may not hold out. ..sold 70% of my short etfs @ 820 (SDS, SKF) and will prob buy back 30% on close for tommorow options expiry...I don't trust this "rally"

     

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#4) On January 15, 2009 at 3:23 PM, tdoodler (24.26) wrote:

Arent your comments inconsistent with some of your 01/14 picks?

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#5) On January 15, 2009 at 3:27 PM, herztical (28.85) wrote:

BTW why is there a 7 day "hold" rule in CAPS...why not say 3?

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#6) On January 15, 2009 at 3:32 PM, goldminingXpert (99.75) wrote:

tdoodler, I thought we had a bottom last night. Then today, my signals indicating a high probability of a crash. The crash was averted and so the previous bull preference I felt towards the market has returned. I need SSO above 24 to breakeven on the puts/calls I opened yesterday and today (or IWM under 42.5, but I hope we go north, not south.)

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#7) On January 16, 2009 at 12:29 AM, DaretothREdux (46.30) wrote:

I ended the majority of my green thumbs that were in the positive right before this recent decline and added more red thumbs. I have been saying we would retest the 740 low for some time now...I always assumed that the next round of earning would shove us further down. Also, I thought maybe we would have an Obama rally until everyone started saying we would have an Obama "rally" and then I knew it likely wouldn't happen.

Citigroup reports tomorrow after delaying...should make for an interesting day even with all the "stimulus" talks.

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#8) On January 21, 2009 at 5:05 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

I'm expecting the US EIA report to show a surprise increase tomorrow-  since the US EIA won't explain the  increase as the "contango" factor (which I believe would actually be bullish for crude) but will more likely explain the increase as demand destruction (bearish for crude and therefor bearish for the majors)

  If the US EIA gets the explanation wrong, I expect you'll get your wish as the energy sector reads the report tomorrow (delayed from today)  around 10:30 ... see the info in my blog.

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