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goldminingXpert (29.55)

Bought NEM March 30 puts at 0.30

Recs

9

March 03, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: NEM

Gold is getting absolutely whacked today (-$27/oz) yet gold is up. What's up? foolishness is what's up. By the end of the day, I expect NEM to reverse its early gains and trade down into the 35's. The March 30 puts should be a double in that case if my pricing model is right. If you're looking for a speculative trade with lots of leverage, here's a good one. Should support get busted on NEM at 34, this option could go in the money... quickly.

Disclosure:

GMX owns: SLV April 12 puts, GG April 20 puts, GG March 25 puts, KGC March 20 puts, and NEM March 30 puts.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM, abitare (87.16) wrote:

You might be over doing the anti-gold thing. I am short paper gold, but I buy physical gold. Although I do like to hate/short what everyone likes myself. 

FYI - I am short via Puts: KGC, and WFC,

Long SWHC, RGR via shares

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#2) On March 03, 2009 at 12:50 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

It's hard to get too short when there is such a beautiful double top taking gold back under 800.

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#3) On March 03, 2009 at 3:27 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.93) wrote:

GMX,

My take...  The China fraud and skepticism about the ETF may have people rotating from the ETFs into miners.  Be careful not to bet too much.

You are overly aggressive on the downside in gold IMO as well.

JFC

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#4) On March 03, 2009 at 3:48 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

time will tell. You've got to admit that most gold bugs didn't anticipate gold dropping 100 bucks/oz in a week though. We gold bears' case is getting stronger by the day.

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#5) On March 03, 2009 at 3:54 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.93) wrote:

Technically speaking, perhaps.

Fundamentals are on the bulls side.  This economy keeps getting more and more scary each day.  BAC downgrade just confirms.

It seems safer to short BAC than NEM IMO.  Gold shares are strong today in the face of dropping metal price.  Could this be a sign of things to come?

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#6) On March 03, 2009 at 4:44 PM, BigFatBEAR (29.18) wrote:

Thanks for the disclosure/transparency, much appreciated.

Looks like NEM is defying you, at least through close today. You are often ahead of the curve. ;)

On a totally unrelated note, did you see TMFDeej's post about cars today? Reminded me of our convo from the other night. Deej also had a good post about BWP and other MLPs recently, definitely worth a glance (though probably not much in there you don't already know). That dude can blog!

JBLU is starting to make me drool / want to double down on a losing bet...

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#7) On March 03, 2009 at 6:23 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

I love JBLU, I hate JBLU. I bought 400 at 3.08 today, got 800 shares total now.

NEM won't be defying me for long, KGC and SLV have already given in to my powers ;) , and GG is losing strength with every passing day.

Great links on BWP and on cars--great graph to illustrate what I mentally had going as a theory but for which I had no proof. Thanks.

Heh heh, how about full disclosure:

SLV puts: +40%

KGC puts: +72%

GG march puts: -15%

GG april puts: +0%

NEM puts: -17%

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Position sizes are roughly equal for all, except the KGC position has swollen into being outsized due to its excellent performance. I'm going to say that on the whole, this has been an acceptable batch of trades so far, and once gold gets under 900, the fun will really get started as the slow-reacting puts will finally join the fun.

 

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#8) On March 03, 2009 at 7:22 PM, owretchedman (< 20) wrote:

What's going on with KAZ ?

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#9) On March 03, 2009 at 9:25 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

KAZ is dead--one of the many casualties of dirt cheap crude. It could have really been something if oil had cranked up a bit farther.

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