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rofgile (53.13)

BP closes alternative energy division.

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July 10, 2009 – Comments (21)

BP

 

From the NPR story. 

BP Alternative Energy is/was a set of research and investment into alternative energy fields such as solar, hydrogen fuel cells, biofuels, and carbon-capture and storage.  From this site, it appears that they will be closing the solar and wind research, and moving mainly into biofuels (such as their biobutanol fuel).

 

The chief executive of the department is being forced into retirement.

 

At least they got some good publicity out of it for a couple of years, right? 

-------------------------------------------

 

This comes on the heels of T. Boone Pickens abandonment of his wind power venture earlier this week.  The 81-year old capitalist was going to invest $10 billion in a wind power venture in Pampa, Texas.  

From a  story back in November 2008:

 

"Friends, neighbors and partners, we'll do a first-class job," he continued. "I'd like to think I have credibility in this area."

 

He showed a deft touch on the whiteboard as he touched on the particulars of oil exploration, the cost of natural gas and the potential for wind power.

 

...

 

It wasn't hard for him to make his case.

 

"How many of you have heard me say Pampa will be the wind capital of the world?" asked Pickens, to a sea of nods. "You like that, don't you?"

 

Pickens, who owns a ranch not far from Pampa, struck the pose of a benevolent, super-rich uncle.

---------------

It appears that the problem was that he was trying to get the taxpayers to pay for the transmission lines and the state to give the land for these lines.  When that fell through, he was sunk.

 

What's the story here?  Same-old-same-old.  When oil prices are high, there's a lot of fancy talk and publicity about investing in renewables, solar, biofuel, and more.  There is public support for financing and grant aid, etc.

Then, as always happens, oil prices fall back to Earth.  Either demand gets cut down due to a recession or the oil producers get threatened by alternative energy and flood the market with cheap oil to kill the growing industry.

This is why it is very tricky to invest in renewable energies- for a year or two, government aid and grants / high oil prices will lead to huge in flows of support and funding.  Then, when elected officials change, priorities change, or oil prices fall - suddenly the funding will dry up.  Projects will get canceled from governments or states, and alternative energy projects from the big Oil will silently disappear.

This situation isn't being helped by the Obama stimulus plan, which included money for alternative energy funding.  Unfortunately it has been slow and confusing:

 

From the WSJ article:

Three new stimulus programs were hailed by analysts as likely to have the biggest effect in boosting renewable energy: a cash incentive from the U.S. Treasury for 30% of the cost of a renewable energy project, loan guarantees for renewable energy projects, and loan guarantees for renewable energy manufacturing.

None of these incentives has yet been defined with specific rules and none of the programs are yet accepting applications, though both the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Department of Energy, which administers the loan-guarantee programs, promise to issue rules and open up to applications soon, possibly in July.

 

----

Until the stimulus funding plan gets worked out and in motion it will have a dampening effect on renewable investing, as no one knows what the rules will be in a couple of months.

 


21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 10, 2009 at 1:53 PM, rofgile (53.13) wrote:

Oh crap, sorry about the big picture in the new blog posts!!

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#2) On July 10, 2009 at 1:55 PM, rofgile (53.13) wrote:

ah crap, lost all my html links too.

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#3) On July 10, 2009 at 1:57 PM, rofgile (53.13) wrote:

References:

NPR story

T Boone Pickens November 2008

WSJ Story

 

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#4) On July 10, 2009 at 2:10 PM, PrestonCheek (37.77) wrote:

What's the story here?  Same-old-same-old.  When oil prices are high, there's a lot of fancy talk and publicity about investing in renewables, solar, biofuel, and more.  There is public support for financing and grant aid, etc.

You hit the nail on the head here.

Interesting yesterday I was at a big meeting in Exxon refinery in Baytown and I asked one of the senior guys there, "is Exxon trying to be the leader in clean fuels technology", and he told me no, all of that was off now. It seems the CEO for Exxon has said that fossils will be the primary fuel source for at least another 80 years. Take that for what it's worth as things can change. He also said that anything that is government backed is sketchy to say the least, meaning that at any time the plug could get pulled and you would lose your funding, so they have dropped all of their research for now.

Another thing I found interesting was he said 80 years from now it might be 50/50 clean/fossil, so thats something to think about. I like you am looking at the right time to get in, it appears to be years from now.

I wanted to do a blog on this but I'm not very good at it.

Preston

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#5) On July 10, 2009 at 2:34 PM, GNUBEE (29.76) wrote:

rofgile

thanks, I was thinking about this yesterday when pickens made his announcement.

My take on this is,

Seems that this is a 10 year (or at least every decade) cycle. Buy up oil when it's cheap, because prices will spike within 10 years. Alt. Energy is something to look at in 7-8 years, then buy cheap in 8-9yrs, then sell in 10. These are very crude timetables, but seem to hold true since the 70's.

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#6) On July 10, 2009 at 2:51 PM, PrestonCheek (37.77) wrote:

I would also like to add that oil companies like any other company want to make money, and if making money comes from clean fuels then they will be there.

When oil does go away it doesn't mean that refineries will go away, it means they will re-tule and upgrade like they always have to keep their company viable for the future. Just a thought when you are selecting your picks in the furure, remember, these places have 50% of whats needed in place to produce and distribute fuel, what they need is the technology to make it.

 

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#7) On July 10, 2009 at 3:00 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.48) wrote:

APWR & BWEN will have less competitors thats a good thing for smaller companies.

 

 
A-Power entered the wind energy market and has built China's largest wind turbine manufacturing facility, located in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, with technologies licensed from German FUHRL?NDER AG and Denmark-based Norwin, and a total annual production capacity of 1,125MW. In March 2009, A-Power entered into an agreement to establish a Joint Venture partnership with GE Drivetrain Technologies to produce wind turbine gearboxes in Shenyang. A-Power also has strategic relationships with Tsinghua University in Beijing and the China Academy of Sciences in Guangzhou to develop and commercialize other renewable energy technologies. For more information, please visit http://www.apowerenergy.com

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#8) On July 10, 2009 at 3:24 PM, phossi42 (< 20) wrote:

BP didn't close this division. It was just reduced. Check the NPR link you posted. They edited their story.

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#9) On July 10, 2009 at 3:31 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.48) wrote:

Looks like Boone Pickens and BP discovered they can't compete against the Chinese companies lower cost structure and government assistance.

 APWR,  HRBN,  JST

A-Power entered the wind energy market and has built China's largest wind turbine manufacturing facility, located in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, with technologies licensed from German FUHRL?NDER AG and Denmark-based Norwin, and a total annual production capacity of 1,125MW. In March 2009, A-Power entered into an agreement to establish a Joint Venture partnership with GE Drivetrain Technologies to produce wind turbine gearboxes in Shenyang. A-Power also has strategic relationships with Tsinghua University in Beijing and the China Academy of Sciences in Guangzhou to develop and commercialize other renewable energy technologies. For more information, please visit http://www.apowerenergy.com 

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#10) On July 10, 2009 at 3:43 PM, rofgile (53.13) wrote:

phossi42:  Thanks for the correction.

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#11) On July 10, 2009 at 4:13 PM, Quantemonics1 (99.90) wrote:

Forward thinkers like Warren Buffett are investing substantial sums into renewable energy investments.

Half of northern Iowa is turning into a Buffett owned wind farm, and he sank $1 billion into a Chinese electric-car company last September (I believe) that will soon be shipping in 2010-2011 super cheap, all-electric cars to the U.S.

If you believe "peak" oil production is here, as I have been convinced the last 6 months, any real uptick in global demand/growth or a supply shock from a major war in the Middle East WILL LEAD TO AVERAGE CRUDE OIL PRICES WELL ABOVE $100 PER BARREL, for the rest of our lifetimes.

Many of the solar and renewable energy companies are being thrown out for dead, using similar reasoning in this message thread, but I believe 2009 may provide the best chance to purchase such assets in many years!!!

I have been buying heavily in ENER, Energy Conversion for several months.  The stock valuation for the whole company is now at or below the liquidation worth of its assets, after subtracting all liabilities.

However, the company has significant cash flows, real world solar panel products that will see strong demand when the guidelines for government incentives are set, and will explode higher in worth and volume production with the next spike in oil/energy prices.  This stock has the potential to rise 1000% or more given the right circumstances over the coming 3-5 year period.  Few other companies have a similar risk-reward outlook in the world than ENER today!!!

P.S. I have also added ENER to the "TigerPackFund" CAPS group member creation. http://caps.fool.com/player/tigerpackfund.aspx

-TigerPack

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#12) On July 10, 2009 at 6:53 PM, NOTvuffett (84.05) wrote:

Thank god they will retire the slogan "beyond petroleum" with all their flowers and crap.  Now I am wondering what their new slogan will be, this is what I have so far:

"hey, we are an oil company, we make shit you use"

obviously, I don't work in marketing or sales, lol.

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#13) On July 11, 2009 at 9:51 AM, Deepfryer (28.21) wrote:

Pickens didn't scrap the wind farm idea - in fact, the windmills have already been ordered from GE. He just needs to relocate due to logistical issues, such as electrical distribution. The windmills will still go up... somewhere.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090707/ap_on_bi_ge/us_pickens_wind_energy

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#14) On July 11, 2009 at 11:08 AM, Londamania (62.41) wrote:

Confirming what Deepfryer says above - I heard same info.  He already has the wind generators and has another site in mind to use instead of his original target.

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#15) On July 11, 2009 at 11:11 AM, Dividends4ever (< 20) wrote:

What amazes me about the US, we are so far behind the rest of the workl in terms of hydro, wind, etc. I have been investing in those companies for years already and collecting monthly dividends for ages. You can thank our government for that.

 

www.compdivplan.com 

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#16) On July 11, 2009 at 12:34 PM, Alwaysgolong (< 20) wrote:

"oil producers get threatened by alternative energy and flood the market with cheap oil to kill the growing industry."

Hows that work? If oil is selling for $140.00 Does Exxon sell theirs for $40.00 to drive the price down? I don't care who ya are, thats funny.

I'm sorry, it just doesn't work that way. :)

Anyway, I've lived down here in T-Boone country all my life. IMO: He's a better salesman then Stanley Marsh but he's still a kook! Among other things, that goofball sold ALL the water rights to his ranch. Who does that?!

 After being married forever and three days, he got a divorce when he was what?? Seventy five -- eighty years old? Who does that?

He has wrecked the retirements and futures of so many people, when he dies, Gods gonna make him live in a trailer park.

I've met greedy people in my life. Hell fire, I'M GREEDY! But T-Boone takes the cake. He reminds me of Daffy Duck in that cave full of jewels and treasure. " MINE !! MINE !! MINE !! IT'S ALL MINE ! MINE !! MINE !!!!!! Woo Hoo, I'm rich, I'm rolling, I'm independantly wealthy! MORE MORE MORE!!! MINE MINE MINE!!! "

Remember when Ross Perot did the Aliance Airport deal and then ran for president so he could do it again by building a free trade zone? 

Well, there you go! T-Boone's wind farm is the SAME SCAM! How about us tax payers put another billion in his account before he cashes in?

 T-Boone isn't any better than the Government Bailout Bonus Club. He wants YOUR money in HIS pocket!

Goofy as Stanley Marsh is? At least he buried HIS OWN Cadilacs...

And Hollywood thinks they got crazy people... Sheesh ..

 

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#17) On July 11, 2009 at 1:01 PM, Dchl (31.46) wrote:

If anyone watched the interview with Boone on Squawk Box the other morning, he stated quite a few times that he is "greedy". He is all for cap and trade and his only reasoning for being on board with it is so he makes "Money" on his pet project.. whatever that is.

 The problems in this world will be solved when "GREED" dies.. and since I don't belive this paradigm shift in attitude will ever occur, we'll always have issues like these no matter what the year. They will continue to cycle over and over.

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#18) On July 11, 2009 at 1:03 PM, Dchl (31.46) wrote:

If anyone watched the interview with Boone on Squawk Box the other morning, he stated quite a few times that he is "greedy". He is all for cap and trade and his only reasoning for being on board with it is so he makes "Money" on his pet project.. whatever that is.

 The problems in this world will be solved when "GREED" dies.. and since I don't believe this paradigm shift in attitude will ever occur, we'll always have issues like these no matter what the year. They will continue to cycle over and over.

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#19) On July 11, 2009 at 7:23 PM, rofgile (53.13) wrote:

"oil producers get threatened by alternative energy and flood the market with cheap oil to kill the growing industry."

Hows that work? If oil is selling for $140.00 Does Exxon sell theirs for $40.00 to drive the price down? I don't care who ya are, thats funny.

 Alwaysgolong:

 The statement may seem funny, but its not about the price, its about the supply.  The OPEC oil cartel chooses how much supply is available at any time (though members often cheat on the set amounts to make more money).  When prices get too high that it might threaten world oil demand in the future (by rising strengths of biofuels, solar, wind investment) - the cartel will increase oil production (supply) to lower the price.  It doesn't cost them to do this, if done correctly.  The goal of the oil cartel is to keep people using oil at the highest possible price for as many decades as possible.  This is somewhat difficult to do, but the cartel has done fairly well.  Though prices have gone up, it has not been to the point where everyone rushes out to buy a Prius, and electric cars begin to take over across the globe.  Now, if you look at the peak oil price in 2008, and what people were starting to do then - behaviours were changing quite powerfully!  So, the line between status quo and continued oil usage as it is, versus funding and development and large-scale demand for electric cars and alternative energy appears to be between $4-5/gallon oil, for the United States.

 -Rof 

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#20) On July 12, 2009 at 7:26 AM, Alwaysgolong (< 20) wrote:

I was in Saudi Arabia when the price of oil went to around $140.00 a barrel. The Saudi nationals were walking 6 inches off the ground thinking they had moved up in the world a few notches.

Although friends with quite a few of the guys I worked with, we would still have some pretty intense debates over oil, and other things. I told them over and over, "Don't spend $$ you don't have. Don't set next year's budget based on this months oil price". They thought I was crazy.

President Bush visited Saudi Arabia in May or June of 08 with the purpose of asking the Saudia oil minister to request an up in production from OPEC. Most of the Saudis scoffed at the idea. "Who does the mun think he is. He can not come to our country and tell our King what to do." The nightly news reflected the same attitude throughout the Kingdom.

In a nut shell, they had no intention whatsoever of raising production and thus lowering prices. The oil minister himself said so. They believed as did millions of others -- that with China and India developing like they were -- the US still being nation of road warriors that we were -- that the price of oil would soon be over $200.00 a barrel and would never pull back, no matter HOW many battery powered cars hit the market.

Bush's message to the Saudis and ultimately OPEC was simple.

"Yo -- King Abdula, ya hear that noise?"

"Why yes. It sounds like a hundred million people chanting, Drill baby Drill."

"Thats right Your majesty. If you don't raise production, the American people will DEMAND that we drill for our own oil. All the Kings horses and all the Queens environmentalists won't be able to stop it. --- You need to turn on Discovery channel and watch "Rigs, Oil and Sweat" Besides the new rigs being built, The big FLO-FLOs are moving rigs from cold stacked to various places around the globe to staff and drill new fields. -- And if you believe that crap of ten years before a price difference will be witnessed?? You sir are an even bigger dumb ass than I thought."

Hillary along with several other politically active clowns ran her mouth to whoever would listen, claiming Bush was begging. That was total BS. He didn't beg. He didn't have to! He's an oil man. He knew what would come down the pike if the price of oil kept climbing. Dick Cheney did as well. Whether you like them or hate them, the one thing Bush Cheney will be forever famous for -- is their collective BULL-headedness. The Bush administration made a lot of mistakes, but the one thing you gotta give em, -- Those two guys didn't take no crap from other world leaders. Bush made the case for an increase in production. OPEC ranted and raved and three weeks later --- raised production.
Obviously, I injected some slight humor into my post, but thats how it happened. There was no consprired effort by OPEC or anyone else to flood the market with "Cheap Oil" to rid the world of electric cars.

THEY thought -- as did most of the world, that oil would sky rocket and never look back. With that thought in mind, why would they flood the market with cheap oil to nix alternatives? It doesn't make sense.

Just my 3 cents worth... Have a safe and prosperous day :)

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#21) On July 12, 2009 at 1:22 PM, Alwaysgolong (< 20) wrote:

Preston made a good point. If there's $$$$$ in it, the oil companies will be there hot and heavy.

The low sulfur diesel which is standard right now was developed in the plant where I work. We sold that stuff to Ford, GM, John Deere and several others including the EPA for .12 cents a gallon with free delivery all over the US so we would be a step ahead of the competition when the mandates came.

The point is, oil companies and refiners face fierce competition from each other -- just like any other sector of busness. Conventional wisdom dictates that oil companies conspire about everything. Its nonsense. They conspire to raise prices -- Turn right around and conspire to LOWER prices? *shaking my head, rolling my eyes with a wide grin*

In a business this competitive, theres no way one could trust the other that much. JVs are one thing, jumping in bed with each other to screw the general public is another.

 BTW: While we're on the subject of wind and APWR was mentioned. It is a stock I've owned a few times. I bought it for $5.15 a few months ago -- I sold it for a little over 12 bucks a while back. I'm looking for another re-entry point. They showed a loss last Q, but are predicting a good profit for the year.

It should follow the market down as we exit the suckers rally over the next few weeks giving those who are interested a good entry point. I'll get back in somewhere around 5 or 6 bucks.

Jim 

I Always Go Long -- but I did buy three ETF shorts a month ago. Drop baby drop... 

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