Bring on the Depression?
Naked Capitalism has a post with a flashy title, "The recession is over but the depression has just begun."
I can no agree more with the author's assertation:
The issue was and still is overconsumption i.e. levels of consumption supported only by increase in debt levels and not by future earnings. This is the core of our problem – debt.
Relative debt today is much higher then the relative debt that brought on the depression.
One of the things that is different and hardly no one takes into account in their analysis - and it will be highly significant - is the aging population. An aging population add increased stress and people are becoming seniors at a faster rate then ever before in history.
Another thing that is different is the entire economic history as we know it has occurred through a period of exponential population growth. That kind of exponential population growth is over. There is increasing poverty and increasing starvation and technology has run its limit to continue to support an increasing population. It seems to me that most markets that there was economic expansion into are now saturated. For 500 years we have been on the growth phase of economic development and now we are facing a mature economic world. I don't see it as any different then the life cycle of a business or a product.
Anyway, the above post is a good read.