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IBDvalueinvestin (99.63)

Broad Market RALLY on 200% plus surprise in Existing Home Sales.

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August 21, 2009 – Comments (8)

July Existing Home Sales MoM 7.2% vs +2.1% consensus

Who would have guessed this? Certainly its a shocking surprise to the upside.

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 21, 2009 at 10:20 AM, russiangambit (29.47) wrote:

It is seasonal. Home sales are always highest in July-August just before the school starts. Plus, they have easy comps from the last year and prices are 20% lower. Septmber-October we will be back to where we started. But since long-term is 3 days in this market, September is still an eternity away.

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#2) On August 21, 2009 at 10:22 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Not suprising at all...  NAR is pushing the heck out of the "Cash for Money Pits" program... err umm.. I mean the New Home Buyers Tax Credit.

 

Saw a really good "better hurry or you'll be sorry" type of ad for it last night.

 

 

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#3) On August 21, 2009 at 10:30 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Its very simple..Forclosures are at an all time high...those house are sold at bargain prices or in an auction.  And the ones that aren't in the auction are more or less 50%  less than two years ago.  So while units may be up..the total dollar value just keeps dropping.

FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 8 PERCENT IN JULY

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#4) On August 21, 2009 at 10:36 AM, WeenTang (37.61) wrote:

What a shocker, all the government has to do is give people money to buy things and people will buy them!!!  Why stop with cars and houses???  Let's subsidize everything and we'll be out of this sales slump tomorrow!!!!

 Thanks Imperial Government!!!!

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#5) On August 21, 2009 at 10:41 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.63) wrote:

With all the bear posts this thread caused , now I will not be surprised if the market gains 200 Points today.

Alot of Bears got trapped this week on Monday.

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#6) On August 21, 2009 at 10:48 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

Please consider this anecdotal (*yet real) example of what's happening in the real world..

 

http://www.ajc.com/search/content//printedition/2009/08/20/synovus0820.html

 

I think what we are seeing is capitulation selling him homes...  That's a good thing, its part of the healing process. 

 

Perhaps I'm just a dumb young pup, but can you explain to me how this is a net positive in the near to moderate term?   (e.g. the term in which financial stocks are priced against)

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#7) On August 21, 2009 at 10:49 AM, russiangambit (29.47) wrote:

> With all the bear posts this thread caused , now I will not be surprised if the market gains 200 Points today.

I don't like to be labeled a bear or a bull. I have my own mind, I don't follow the crowd. If my opinion is considered to be bearish it doesn't make it any less valid.

I hope market gains 200 points today or even 500 points. That will get those investment banks thinking.

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#8) On August 21, 2009 at 10:58 AM, brickcityman (< 20) wrote:

I'm with russiangambit on this...

 

Call be bipolar if you must, I am extremely distrustful of the gains banks have made, especially over the past month but I'm positive beyond that.

 

My biggest concern is that rationalization in the equity pricing of the financial sector will have undue consequences to the broader market...  But I love that scenario because it means I can buy more cheaper.

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