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Mark910 (< 20)

Buen’ Dia’ Aug 17, What changed on Friday at 9:55



August 17, 2009 – Comments (7)

While you slept, all markets are looking down...but what happened was on Friday.  Did you notice?  Right before the market opened Friday I wrote.

Consumer-For this rally to continue GDP has got to grow and the govt. is out of bullets, so its up to the consumer.  We get more information this week as we hear from Wal-mart and a host of other barometers on the consumer.

review ; forclosures at a new high, job losses up slightly this week.retail sales continue to drop.  Slight negative here.

At 9:55 we went to a large negative:Released on 8/14/2009 9:55:00 AM For August, 2009 The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment number came in at 63.2, a drop for the secomd month straight.

The bulls must take a seat as the Consumer is jobless, making less money, borrowing less, and saving more.  As we look at retail data coming out this week, look at same store over store numbers.  Forget profit/loss statements as inventories and job layoffs cloud the consumer picture.  Businesses are doing what they need to survive but so is the consumer and for that reason your green shoots just got stepped on.  Mark my words and look back at the charts today and three months from today and you will agree with me…Friday at 9:55 was the day the Bear took the bull by the horns and now you know how.  See comments to follow.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 17, 2009 at 7:54 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Consumer confidence

here is the Bloomberg graph showing the twom month trend..which says last months data point was not a fluke.

GDP consumer vs Govt%

This graph shows why it matters.  The GDP is 70% consumer, the govt has been trying to cover but if the consumer continues to spend less this recession is not over.

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#2) On August 17, 2009 at 8:22 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

As of Friday i am in cash and short the Russle and Financials with a small bet to the downside on commercial realestate. 

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#3) On August 17, 2009 at 8:38 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Lows just missed but here is whats important-The company said it expected total sales to fall 2 percent to 5 percent, with a same-store sales decline of 6 percent to 10 percent.  This will not be good


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#4) On August 17, 2009 at 8:48 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the post!

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#5) On August 17, 2009 at 9:05 AM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Sure Binve, I think you now have the fundamental reason to go with your technicals to call another top.  I hear a sleepy bear stirring around in his den.  I think he here's the sound of the dollar rising.

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#6) On August 17, 2009 at 4:24 PM, DaretothREdux (53.06) wrote:



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#7) On August 18, 2009 at 12:55 AM, BigFatBEAR (28.45) wrote:

I think this also hit the markets around Friday evening... 

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