Buffett - No Alpha
I saw this post, with a pretty graph, showing Warren Buffett's alpha.
One of the things about investing is that I realize I did as well as I did when I was actively investing because I was managing a relatively small amount of money. My 100 to 5000 shares, depending on price, was never a price mover whereas if you have huge amounts to invest the price is going up as you buy and coming down as you sell. My stock purchase were in the $2000 to $20,000 range, with more in the lower range then the higher range. Well, with managing $200 billion you need to make 10 million trades at the high end of my range.
The other thing is that Buffett started his investing career early in the population explosion of the 20th century, and pretty close to the bottom in terms of people getting over their fears of the market from the depression. Those are two enormous things to have in your favor. Timing is huge, and the population growth the world experienced in the 20th century isn't likely to be repeated. He was ahead of the boomers in buying his investments and rode the secular bull of baby boomer demographics.
Long term the opposite has to happen now. Your employment income streams stop as you enter retirement and you slow down, stop or start pulling investment income, all of which reduce demand and reduced demand reduces prices. Baby boomer demographics will continue to dominate the economy, imho, and the generation below simply does not have the disposable income to compensate.