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Buffett: "Economy in a recession, will be worse than feared". We knew back in July 07

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April 29, 2008 – Comments (10)

Buffett: Economy in a recession, will be worse than feared

28 Apr 08 NEW YORK (Reuters) —

"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.

"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices," he added, "and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."

"In the retail businesses ... if anything, they've gotten a little worse," Buffett said. "Of course, things connected with housing, whether it's in brick or whether it's in carpet, those businesses have shown no uptick at all. Jewelry had a bad Christmas ... and it stayed that way."

The Oracle needs a replacement, he is getting slow.... Why not abitarecatania?

Abitarecatania Blog Posts: 

Call me a "bear". I have been called worse by nicer people then you!

October 24, 2007

Why the Market sold off and will continue. Sinking Currency, Sinking Country

November 11, 2007

SEL! SELL! SELL!!!!!!!!! Bear Market Confirmed! Goldman's Abby Cohen calls for S&P 500 Rising 14% by 2008'

December 05, 2007

"100% chance of a recession in the next year"

December 27, 2007

Predictions 2008: S&P Falls 25%, Chinese Mkt Falls 40%, Ron Paul Wins Presidency, Oil $175 etc...

December 30, 2007

Global Recession and What to Buy

January 11, 2008

Why the U.S. stock market is going down and why that is good news for Ron Paul.

January 22, 2008

Greenspan Says Global Recession Is `Inevitable' After `Boom'

January 24, 2008

David Rockfeller On Ron Paul / RP Supporter Calls Market Crash

January 27, 2008

Nouriel Roubini: The Housing Debate: "it is not going to be okay"

February 03, 2008

Survival of Republic; US Headed for Fiscal Crisis (60 Minutes interview); Ron Paul is Right

February 18, 2008

Bush Dismisses Iraq Recession: The War Has ‘Nothing To Do With The Economy’

February 19, 2008

Jim Rogers "The dollar is going to loose it's status as the world's reserve currency" 25Feb08

February 26, 2008

Shark vs. Shark at Mall of America; Severe Recession Fears in Fish Tank

February 27, 2008 –

The Ultimate Sell Signal: Resignation of top GAO David Walker

March 01, 2008

CNN Money: Williams Admits Great Depression Coming

March 02, 2008

Gold Beats Financial Assets as Global Distrust of Central Bankers (Bloomberg)

March 03, 2008

"In the long term, the dollar is a doomed currency. It will go to zero," Faber Says Bernanke Policy Will `Destroy' U.S. Dollar"

March 08, 2008

Jim Rogers "FED is using taxpayers money to buy BSC Traders Maserati....they are setting up a failure of FED Reserve Bank"

March 17, 2008

Why the US is collapsing - by a Swede Rick Falkvinge

March 23, 2008

Shouldn’t The Stock Market Be Down A Lot More Than It Is? It should – and it is.

March 26, 2008

Jim Grant - Fed's Balance Sheet an `Economist Nightmare'

March 28, 2008

12 Ways To Prepare For The Next Great Depression

April 13, 2008

Being a Bearish, Does not Mean I am Depressed or that I will Eat Bugs…(unless I have to)

April 21, 2008 –

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 29, 2008 at 8:12 PM, jahbu (89.06) wrote:

So where to invest? 

 Is there a company that corners the market in rubbers?  Good times or bad, folks are gonna be bumpin uglies.

Jahbu

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#2) On April 29, 2008 at 8:31 PM, abitare (49.90) wrote:

I will be buying real estate in two years there will be an amazing amount of deals for those that have cash. I expect it to fall another 30%  if FED raises rates. I like farmland if you can get it at reasonable price.

So where to invest?

1. Your job skills. Make sure you stay employed during the recession and develop job skills to maximize your income. Develop job skills to ensure that you cannot be replaced easily or cheaply. PROTECT YOUR EMPLOYMENT.

2. First $25k should go to your own business. 70% of jobs are service based, this number will be reduced. Your own business can help reduce your tax burden, build wealth and provide " employment insurance" over the long term.

3. Begin to collect "real assets" or hard assets if you do not have any. Get them outside of the US, or in a secured place you can recover them. Foreign currencies, gold, silver etc... for a systemic failure or a prolonged war.

4. If theUS engages Iran in war, there maybe a bank run. Ensure you have cash available and are not last in line at the bank or at the grocery.

5. Food is going to go up. Nothing wrong with stock piling suger, coffee, rice etc.... I have a list of assets you can buy if you are an "uber - bearish" like me. Check my Feb 24 Post:

Systemic Risk Investment / Insurance; A buy list outside of Stocks February 24, 2008 –

 

 

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#3) On April 29, 2008 at 9:12 PM, jahbu (89.06) wrote:

What if all the turmoil in the middle east causes mass immigration of folks from Israel to the USA?  Could it happen?  What would be the impact on housing and general economy of the US?

Jahbu

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#4) On April 29, 2008 at 9:13 PM, jahbu (89.06) wrote:

What if all the turmoil in the middle east causes mass immigration of folks from Israel to the USA?  Could it happen?  What would be the impact on housing and general economy of the US?

Jahbu

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#5) On April 29, 2008 at 9:22 PM, abitare (49.90) wrote:

What if all the turmoil in the middle east causes mass immigration of folks from Israel to the USA? 

They have to get here. Most Iraqis are to poor to get a ticket. Most mass migration will come from Mexico, especially if Mexico runs out of oil. No oil, no subsidies to the poor = even more mass migration to the US. The US does not need anymore uneducated labor, the prisions are already fool. You can see my post on Illegal Immigration is service Outsoursing. 

Could it happen? 

Sure, it happen after Castro (see movie Scareface) and it happened after the Vietnam war. (go to CA) 

What would be the impact on housing and general economy of the US?

The prision population will continue to grow, the dollar will continue to fall, hospitials, cities, states will continue to go bankrupt. Incomes will fall as labor supply increases. Social security, MEDICARE etc. will run out of money faster.   

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#6) On April 29, 2008 at 9:27 PM, abitare (49.90) wrote:

folks from Israel to the USA?

There is a rumour on the internet, that there is a plan for the Israelis to resettle in Arizona. Jews are an extremely productive people. I think having them here is better then the mass migration of uneducated laborers, which end up on social services or in prision. 

But the US does not need migration in general, we need to end the welfare state and send the current population back to work. We have 30 million on social services and 6 million in prision. We do not need anymore people then we already have.  

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#7) On April 29, 2008 at 10:04 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

Good advice, and as any good advice, it is impossible to follow.

1. Develop job skills. By the time you're out of college with a second degree, the recession will be over. Not that diplomas matter anyway. In a recession, you have a job by virtue of having a job. Any experience is an asset and any extra diploma is a liability. 

2. Opening a business with 25K sounds as realistic as buying a Manhattan condo for fifty grands. The only business that I can think of is a phony employment agency or a postal job scam.

3. Buying foreign currencies, gold and silver was a good idea when recession was not priced in. Now when your gardener is telling you about fbuying oreign currencies, it's too late. If you want a decent chance of not losing your shirt, you have to buy something that is not priced in, like, for example, recovery and a new housing boom.

4. There will be no war with Iran, or a very short and victorious one. Obama and Billary are both too smart to offer us an asset sale of the century that would result from a quagmire.

5. It's a good idea to stockpile, as pointed out several times by yours truly, but it's not going to save a losing battle against recession. We are talking about hundreds of dollars of savings, not thousands and not tens of thousands. 

Finally, your idea that the Fed might think of doing something that makes housing cheaper is so ridiculous that I wouldn't put 1 cent against a million dollars betting on such outcome. 

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#8) On April 30, 2008 at 12:54 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Buy Stock in home seed and mererical grow. Why; there is a wide spread of new back yard gardeners. There here. It is now. I loved the inflation talk on this tape.On Oil.    Is it bad unlough yet ABA I still say 1776.

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#9) On April 30, 2008 at 2:09 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Aba, You will love this one. then this one

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#10) On April 30, 2008 at 3:41 PM, abitare (49.90) wrote:

EScroogeJr

By the time you're out of college with a second degree,  

Who said second degree? I said JOB SKILL 

the recession will be over.  

Really? The Japanesse Economy has been in decline for 18 years. Our problems are different, but I believe they are far more severe.  2.

Opening a business with 25K sounds as realistic as buying a Manhattan condo for fifty grands.  

I have three businesses, started under $20k. I can start a website and get an LCC for under $500. I can start about 100 business for under $20k. Sent me a check for $200 and I will tell you about them... there is a business right there? Seriously send me a check anyways.  

The only business that I can think of is a phony employment agency or a postal job scam. 

That is your first problem...why not make a trip to the libary and get your learn on? 

3. Buying foreign currencies, gold and silver was a good idea when recession was not priced in.

All asset prices will decline in a recession. But ultimately the dollar is doomed and you just start hedging as insurance.  

Now when your gardener is telling you about fbuying oreign currencies, it's too late.

YOU JUST NAMED A BUSINESS UNDER $20K????????????   

a new housing boom. 

I am sure by 2020-40. There will be another boom.   

There will be no war with Iran, or a very short and victorious one.

 Lets ask an expert: author of "Target Iran": 

  

Obama and Billary are both too smart to offer us an asset sale of the century that would result from a quagmire. 

Sure, like Nixon, Johnson etc....I am sure you believe this. Not me.  

your idea that the Fed might think of doing something that makes housing cheaper is so ridiculous  

The FED cannot reinflate the housing bubble. It can only print money and cause inflation. 

Sorry we are on different planets. I am on Earth. I am in the US housing is falling hard. The asset bubble created by Greenspan is imploding and it will NOT reinflate.

Read and heed:

Case-Shiller Shows Steep Declines In Home Prices

http://bp1.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SBeGxUe_uuI/AAAAAAAAChU/SIeIT1sqlhs/s1600-h/case-shiller-feb2008.png

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