July 02, 2010
– Comments (5)
Enough bearishness! Reasonable valuations are back. We are resuming our journey to S&P 1200 as the rest of the world is crashing.
The Euro is going to 90 cents, so we are looking at a 30% currency downside. Greece is going into a local Great Depression 2.0, and so are Spain and Portugal, so the earnings targets will not be met. If, in addition, a large European bank folds, they will have another liquidity crisis and will sell their crown jewels for a PE of 6.
Do you still think this will happen? You might want to just start buying some European "blue chip" stocks, I still think the drop that would make you interested will not happen in the next few years (see comments #10,11 to that post) ...
I am "bullish" as well currently.
Chinese stocks are doing just fine by the way (at least the relevant ones, the A-shares indices just appear to be weak as the premium has "left" ...). As do the major stock market indices from Germany, India, Hong Kong, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Brasil, Mexico and Chille, ...
the major stock market indices from Germany, India, Hong Kong, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Brasil, Mexico and Chille
and all of those will "do better" (in the next few months and years) than the S&P 500 index I think ...
Still bearish as hell on Europe, and stand by my prediction of 90 cents per euro. The US is in complete control of the economic science, its economists have told Europe to step on the brake just as the US is stepping on the gas. Result: US getting ahead and Europe falling behind.